In general, the evaluation of water supply capacity is important factor to establish various establishment of water resource supply plan include water resource security and determination of dam's mass. But former researchs about estimation of water supply capacity were lack in continunity of evaluation basis, and didn't excute analysis on reliability criteria also. In this study, Nakdong river was selected for study basin, and then water supply capacity was analyzed by HEC-5 model using identical reliability criteria.

A macroeconomic minimodel was simulated to suggest the public policy for sustainable use of Nakdong River Basin. The minimodel for the simulation shows the interrelationships between natural environment and economic activity. Topsoil, water, economic assets, and money stock are plotted for 300 years, beginning with 1996 in each simulation. The computer simulation runs suggest that the Nakdong River Basin system in the near future may strongly be influenced by the favorable availability of outside resources, while the economic assets and money stock may be declined by indigenous environmental stock depletion. The simulation run made under the constant decrease in systems purchased inputs with investment ratio of developed country and for sustainable use. The results of simulation shows the recover of natural environment and decrease of economic activity under these condition. Therefore, the economic structure of Nakdong River Basin should be transformed from the present industrial structure to the social-economic structure based on an ecological-recycling concept which depend on renewable resources rather than industrial structural which depend on outside resources.

The conflicts between environment protection and economic development are becoming increasingly important in environmental decision making of Nakdong River Basin. A science-based evaluation system is now needed to represent both the environmental values and the economic values with a common measure. EMERGY, spelled with an "m" evaluates both the work of river and that of human in generating products and services. The monetary cost-benefit analysis and the environmental accounting by EMERGY analysis were applied to determine whether there will have a net benefit in environmental decision making of Nakdong River Basin. Based on the results of the environmental accounting, all alternatives which related to environmental decision making of Nakdong River Basin show that more and more of EMERGY cost becomes needed than the EMERGY benefit from getting water to drink in the lower basin. From these results, for selecting alternatives to manage water quantity and quality that is sustainable in the environmental use and economic development, environmental accounting concepts must be considered, and the economic structure of Nakdong River Basin should be changed from the present industrial structure to social-economic structure based on ecological-recycling concept for the sustainable use of Nakdong River.

수자원 개발이 인문 사회적 여건으로 날로 어려워짐에 따라 공급위주의 물 관리 정책이 한계에 달하고 이어 수요관리개념에 따른 적용 가능한 수자원관리 기법의 개발이 필요해지고 있다. 무효방류량을 최소화하여 한정된 물 자원 배분을 합리적으로 이룰 수 있는 실제 적용 가능한 수요관리기법은 수자원의 효율적 이용과 유역물관리 시스템의 방법론적 완성을 위해 반드시 필요하다. 본 연구는 기존의 물수지분석 기법을 댐 연계운영 모형과 조합하여 MIP 기법에 의해 이수목적

An EMERGY analysis of the main energy flows driving the economy of humans and life support systems consists of environmental energies, fuels, and imports, all expressed as solar emjoules. Total EMERGY use(720.0 E20 sej/yr) of the Nakdong River Basin is 96 per cent from imported sources, fuels and goods and services. EMERGY flows from the environment such as rain and geological uplift flux accounted for only 4 percent of total EMERGY use. Consequently, the ratio of outside investment to attracting natural resources was large, like other industrialized areas. EMERGY use per person in the Nakdong River Basin indicates a moderate EMERGY standard of living, even though the indigenous resources are very poor. Population of 6.66 million people in 1996 is already in excess of carrying capacity of the basin. Carrying capacity for steady state based on its renewable sources is only 0.226 million people. EMERGY yield ratio and environment loading ratio were 1.07 and 28.52, respectively. EMERGY sustainability index, a ratio of EMERGY yield ratio to environment loading ratio, is therefore less than one, which is indicative of highly developed consumer oriented economies. This study suggests that the economic structure of the Nakdong River Basin should be transformed from the present industrial structure to the social-economic structure based on an ecological-recycling concept for the sustainable use of the Nakdong River.

In this study, the regional frequency analysis is used to determine each subbasin drought frequency with reliable monthly precipitation and the L-Moments method which is almost unbiased and has very nearly a normal distribution is used for the parameter estimation of monthly precipitation time series in Nakdong river basin. As the result of this study, the duration of '93-'94 is most severe drought year than any other water year and the drought frequency is established as compared the regional frequency analysis result of cumulative precipitation of 12th duration months in each subbasin with that of 12th duration months in the major drought duration. The Linear regression equation is induced according to linear regression analysis of drought frequency between Nakdong total basin and each subbasin of the same drought duration. Therefore, as the foundation of this study, it can be applied proposed method and procedure of this study to the water budget analysis considering safety standards for the design of impounding facilities large-scale river basin and for this purpose, above all, it is considered that expansion of reliable preciptation data is needed in watershed rainfall station.

낙동강 유역의 저수유출 해석을 위해 IS(integrated snowband) 유역모형이 포함된 SSARR 모형을 적용하였다. IS유역모형은 증발산, 침투 및 장기회귀 지하수 추적기능이 추가된 최신 버전으로서 연물수지분석에 관한 정보가 출력되며 대화식 구동방식인 IA(interactive)방식도 내재되어 있다. 고수시와 저수시 민감한 매개변수를 민감도 분석결과 도출할 수 있었고, 이를 토대로 모형의 보정이 이루어졌다. 7개 제어지점에서 유량의 관측치와

본 연구에서는 낙동강유역 진동, 현풍, 왜관 지점의 연평균 유량자료에 대하여 다변량 추계학적 모형올 적용하여 가뭄특성을 해석하였다. 추계학적 모형으로는 다변량 자기회귀 (MAR) 모형과 다변량 contemporaneous 자기회귀 (MCAR) 모형올 사용하였으며, 잔차계열의 왜곡도 검사, 계열상관도(correlogram) 등의 적합도 검정을 통하여 MCAR(1) 모형과 MAR(1) 모형올 적정 모형으로 선정하였다. 또한 MCAR(1) 모형과 MAR(1)