PURPOSES : In this study, surface distress (SD), rutting depth (RD), and international roughness index (IRI) prediction models are developed based on the zones of Incheon and road classes using regression analysis. Regression analysis is conducted based on a correlation analysis between the pavement performance and influencing factors. METHODS : First, Incheon was categorized by zone such as industrial, port, and residential areas, and the roads were categorized into major and sub-major roads. A weather station triangle network for Incheon was developed using the Delaunay triangulation based on the position of the weather station to match the road sections in Incheon and environmental factors. The influencing factors of the road sections were matched Based on the developed triangular network. Meanwhile, based on the matched influencing factors, a model of the current performance of the road pavement in Incheon was developed by performing multiple regression analysis. Sensitivity analysis was conducted using the developed model to determine the influencing factor that affected each performance factor the most significantly. RESULTS : For the SD model, frost days, daily temperature range, rainy days, tropical nights, and minimum temperatures are used as independent variables. Meanwhile, the truck ratio, freeze–thaw days, precipitation days, annual temperature range, and average temperatures are used for the RD model. For the IRI model, the maximum temperature, freeze–thaw days, average temperature, annual precipitation, and wet days are used. Results from the sensitivity analysis show that frost days for the SD model, precipitation days and freeze–thaw days for the RD model, and wet days for the IRI model impose the most significant effects. CONCLUSIONS : We developed a road pavement performance prediction model using multiple regression analysis based on zones in Incheon and road classes. The developed model allows the influencing factors and circumstances to be predicted, thus facilitating road management.

국내 고속도로 장기공용성 조사구간의 파손자료와 기후자료 및 포장물성 자료를 이용하여 줄눈 콘크리트 포장의 스폴링 모형이 개발되었다. 줄눈 콘크리트 포장 장기공용성 조사구간 22개소의 스폴링 파손 상태가 1999년과 2004년에 각각 조사되어 총44개의 스폴링 파손 자료가 수집되었으며 각 위치에서의 기후자료 및 포장의 형태 및 물성 자료 또한 수집되었다. 수집된 자료들의 민감도 분석을 통하여 스폴링 발생에 영향이 큰 인자들을 찾아내었으며, 그 인자들을 다중 회귀분석하여 스폴링 파손 모형이 개발되었다. 개발된 스폴링 모형은 외국의 모형과 비교할 때 합리적인 스폴링 발생 추이를 보였다.