The earthquake risk prediction for dam structure has been considered as an important analysis. The dam has to interact with water in its lifetime, which maybe induces the chemo-mechanical phenomenon on the aging concrete and damage the capacity of the structure. The main aim of this research is to suggest a procedure to predict the operant condition of the dam based on Cumulative Absolute Velocity (CAV) values after some decades. CAV is a method ordinarily used in Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) fields, but in case of a concrete gravity dam, it will be the new addition along with the aging effect of concrete material.