본 연구에서는 ALOHA와 Bow-tie를 활용하여 메탄올 추진 선박의 저장 탱크가 울산항에서의 누출 시나리오를 가정하여 위험도 평가하였다. ALOHA를 이용하여 대안 및 최악의 시나리오를 산정하여 피해 범위를 예측하였다. 독성 영향 범위의 결과(ERPG-2 기준)로는 대안(629m), 최악(817m)로 육상 탱크 터미널의 부두 시설 및 거주 지역까지 포함되는 것으로 확인되었다. 인화성 영향 범위(LEL 10% 기준) 는 대안(126m), 최악(218m) 선박에서만 발생하였으며, 열복사 영향 범위(5.0kW/m2 기준)는 대안(56m), 최악(56m)로 선박에서만 영향을 미쳤 다. 또한, 전문가 집단을 구성하여 Bow-tie 기법을 통하여 예방 대책과 완화 대책을 평가하였다. 대책 유형 분류에서는 Hardware와 Human 으로 구분되었으며, 안전 유효성과 위험 심각성의 결과에서는 “Gas Freeing System”, “Ventilation System”, “Fire-Fighting System이 가장 높은 평가를 받았다. 위의 평가를 토대로 위험도 평가를 도식화하였다.

As the chemical industry becomes more advanced, the awareness of chemical accidents is rising, and legal systems for chemical safety management are strengthened. In this study, quantitative risk assessment of liquid chlorine leak was conducted. Risk assessment was performed in the order of frequency analysis, consequence analysis, and risk calculation. The individual risk was presented in the form of contour lines. The social risk was expressed by the FN curve. The risk of day and night was in an unacceptable area, so it was required to mitigate risk. Therefore in-building, which could trap the pool, was selected as a risk mitigation measure. As a result of the cost benefit analysis, it was concluded that this measure should be reasonably implemented.

Classify of explosion hazardous areas must be made at the site where flammable materials are used. This reason is that it is necessary to manage ignition sources in of explosion hazardous areas in order to reduce the risk of explosion. If such an explosion hazard area is widened, it becomes difficult to increase the number of ignition sources to be managed. The method using the virtual volume currently used is much wider than the result using CFD(Computational Fluid Dynamics). Therefore, we tried to improve the current method to compare with the new method using leakage characteristics. The result is a realistic explosion hazard if the light gas is calibrated to the mass and the heavy gas is calibrated to the lower explosion limit. However, it is considered that the safety factors should be taken into account in the calculated correction formula because such a problem should be considered as a buffer for safety.