최근 국내 은행산업의 시장 포화상태로 성장의 한계에 직면함과 동시에, 세계 수위를 다투는 조선, 건설, 자동차 등 우수한 경쟁력을 보유한 한국의 타 산업 대비 상대적으로 매우 미비한 국제경쟁력을 가진 국내 상업은행들에 게 있어, 적극적인 국제화의 추진은 더 이상 피할 수 있는 명제가 아니다. 반면에 상업은행의 국제화가 경영성과 에 미치는 영향에 대한 국내외 선행연구는 일반기업 대상의 국제화 관련 연구와 달리 쉽게 찾아보기 힘든 실정이 다. 이에 본 연구는 상업은행의 국제화와 경영성과 간의 관계에 대한 고찰을 수행함과 동시에, 기존 관련연구에 서 논의가 미비했던 전략유형을 조절변수로 도입하여 특정한 전략유형이 국제화에 따른 경영성과에 어떠한 영향 을 미치는지 실증 분석하였다. 이를 위하여 2012년 자산규모 기준 상위 200개의 전 세계 상업은행을 분석대상 으로 삼아 1999년부터 국제적인 금융위기가 본격화되기 이전인 2007년까지 9개년도 재무지표의 패널자료를 수 집하여 횡단면분석 및 다중회귀분석(Pooled-OLS)을 실시하였다. 각 은행별로 분석기간 중 재무지표의 평균값을 변수로 사용한 횡단면분석을 통해 국제화 수준 자체는 상업은행의 수익성 및 도산위험과 유의미한 관계가 없었으 며, 수익구조 다변화전략을 동시에 추진한 경우에 한하여 해당 은행의 경영성과가 유의미하게 우수함을 발견하였 다. 본 연구는 은행산업의 국제화 관련연구에서 최근 국내외에서 주로 논의되고 있는 은행산업의 전략유형을 독 립적인 조절변수로 채택하여 실증분석을 시도한 점에서 의미를 찾을 수 있다. 또한 은행산업의 특성을 감안하여 종속변수인 경영성과를 수익성 뿐 아니라 도산위험가능성을 추가로 고려한 점도 의의가 있다. 따라서 본 연구의 결과가 국내 상업은행이 국제화를 추진함에 있어서 경영진과 여러 이해관계자들이 전략적 측면에서 사전에 면밀 히 분석하고 대응함으로써 성공적인 국제화를 도모하고 신규 해외시장 개척에 일조할 수 있기를 기대한다.
Purpose – As an important participant in the financial markets, the commercial bank will be impacted by the interest rate marketization. Owing to the special condition of China, this paper tries to explore the impact of operating mechanisms between interest rate marketization and the profitability of the commercial Bank.
Research design, data and methodology – This paper applies time series data from 2005 to 2016. Due to the short period of time series, autocorrelation often occurs. Therefore, the fully modified least squares(FMOLS) will be used to conduct an empirical analysis. The reason is that it can move off the autocorrelation between variables and disturbance term. And FMOLS also can make estimated cointegrating parameters closed to normal distribution. More importantly, in order to avoid spurious regressions, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test will be used to verify the stationarity of all variables. The total return of asset is treated as the profitability of commercial bank. The net interest spread is treated as a measurement of interest rate marketization. Both are regarded as dependent variables. The non-interest income or gross revenues and impaired loans or gross loans are treated as independent variables. The sixteen representative listed commercial banks are divided into three categories (state-owned, share-holding and city-owned) to conduct an estimation.
Results – Via empirical analysis, the findings show that the net interest spread has a positive effect on the profitability of the commercial bank. More specifically, 1% increase in the net interest spread will lead 0.157% increase in the profitability of state-owned commercial bank, 0.269% increase in the profitability of share-holding commercial bank and 0.263% increase in the profitability of city-owned commercial bank. If regarding the sixteen listed commercial city as a whole, 1% increase in the net interest spread will lead 0.267% increase in the profitability of the commercial bank.
Conclusions – As the interest rate marketization, the importance of interest rate on the profitability of commercial bank has become more and more significant. The empirical evidences also prove that the net interest spread can bring about the change of the commercial bank’s profitability. Therefore, policy-makers of commercial banks should fully understand the operating mechanism between them.
The interest rate is always treated as the price of capital. It plays a most significant role in a country’s capital management and economic development, which poses a vital effect on capital market and monetary market. Therein, the commercial bank that is the important participants in the financial markets will be affected by the reform of interest rate liberalization. Before that, the deposits and loans rate are determined by the People’s Bank of China. Therefore, the People’s Bank of China has the unique authority to decide the magnitude of deposits and loans rate. Namely, the profitability of commercial Banks is denominated by the People’s Bank of China. As the interest rate liberalization, the profitability of commercial Banks will be inevitably impacted by it. Due to this, this paper tries to explore the operating mechanism between interest rate liberalization and profitability of commercial Banks. additionally, the total return to asset that represents the profitability of commercial banks; the net interest spread is treated as a measurement of interest rate liberalization. both are regarded as dependent variables. Meanwhile, the non-interest income or gross revenues and impaired loans or gross loans are treated as independent variables. In order to make the relation between them more clear, the sixteen representative listed commercial banks are divided into three categories (state-owned commercial banks, share-holding commercial banks and city-owned commercial banks) to conduct an empirical analysis. The findings indicate that 1% decrease in the net interest spread will result in 0.131% decrease in the profitability of state-owned in commercial banks, 0.399% decrease in the profitability of city-owned commercial banks and 0.201% decrease in the profitability of share-holding commercial banks. If the sixteen representative listed commercial banks are treated as a whole, 1% decrease in the net interest spread will lead to 0.246% in the profitability of all commercial banks.