PURPOSES: The purpose of this study is to develop a traffic accident prediction model using statistical data, to analyze child traffic accidents in school zones. Furthermore, we analyze the factors affecting child traffic accidents, as obtained from the results of the developed model. METHODS : From the literature review, we obtained data for child traffic accidents and various variables relating to road geometry and traffic safety facilities in school zones. We used these variables and data to develop a child traffic accident analysis model. The model was then developed into three types using the Limdep 9.0 statistical tool. RESULTS: As a result of the overdispersion test, the Poisson regression model was applied to all types of models with an overdispersion coefficient of close to zero. The results of the model development are as follows. The main model (all scope of analysis) was for a kindergarten, considering a local roadway, the accessibility of the roadway, the number of unsignalized intersections, and the school zones in commercial area as variables that increase traffic accidents. Sub-model typeⅠ(only the roadway connected to the main entrance) was for a kindergarten, considering a local roadway, skid resistant pavement, no-parking signs, the number of unsignalized intersections, and the number of commercial facilities as variables that increase traffic accidents. The main model and sub-model type Ⅰ showed a reduction in accidents when using forward-type traffic signals. Sub-model typeⅡ(only the roadway not connected to the main entrance) shows that the local roadway is the variable that most increases the probability of traffic accidents. However, when the roadway and walkway are separated, the probability of traffic accidents decreases significantly, by up to 90%. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study demonstrate the need to restructure the method used to improve school zones. Moreover, the effect of various traffic safety facilities was quantitatively analyzed.

PURPOSES:This study aims to analyze the impact of the implementation of a school zone traffic safety improvement project on the number of accidents involving children in these zones.METHODS :To analyze the correlation between school zone traffic safety features of roads in the zone and the number of accidents involving children, we developed an occurrence probability model of traffic accidents involving children by using a binary logistic regression model with SPSS 23.0 software. Two separate models were developed for two zones: interior block and arterial road.RESULTS:The model depicted that in the case of the interior block, shorter sidewalk width, speed bump, and an elevated crosswalk were key factors affecting the occurrence of accidents involving children. In the case of arterial roads exceeding a width of 12 m, the speed limit, roadside barriers, and red paving of road surfaces were found to be the key factors.CONCLUSIONS:The results of this study can serve as the elementary research data to help improve the effectiveness of school zone traffic safety improvement projects and school zone road repair projects in future.