이 논문은 국내 한육우 사육두수를 시계열 모형인 ARIMA 모형을 이용하여 추정하였다. 소의 생리학적 특성을 반영하기 위하여 한육우 사육두수를 총 여섯 개의 범주(4개의 도축률과 2개의 출생률)로 나누었다. 이 여섯 가지 범주에 대해 ARIMA 모형을 적용하여 Box-Jenkins 절차에 따라 그 값들을 추정하고 예측하였다. 큰암소도축률과 큰수소도축률은 단위근을 갖는 불안정시계열로 나타나 차분하여 안정화시키고 나머지 4개의 변수들은 안정시계열로 나타나 그대로 모형의 식별, 추정 그리고 예측에 사용하였다. 분석결과, 한육우 사육두수는 2012년을 최고점으로 점점 감소하다가 2018년을 최저점으로 다시 증가할 것 으로 분석되었다.

The Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), first identified in China in December 2019, has widely spread worldwide and is an ongoing pandemic. It is expected that the ripple effect of COVID-19 on the global economy including the agricultural sector will increase substantially if not properly controlled shortly. This study examines the potential impact of COVID-19 on the Korean beef cattle sector and farm labor demand for Korean beef cattle using a dynamic partial equilibrium model. The agricultural production value and farm labor demand for Korean beef cattle in the scenario assuming pessimistic GDP growth rate (-1.2% in 2020) with no direct supply shocks fell by up to 4.00% and 0.67%, respectively, compared to the baseline which represents the future without COVID-19 outbreak. On the other hand, the agricultural production value and farm labor demand for Korean beef cattle in the scenario assuming both pessimistic GDP growth rate and supply shocks (-12.7% beef imports and + 2.4% feed cost in 2020) increased by up to 12.08% and 1.99%, respectively, compared to the baseline.

Korea-US FTA amendment became effective January 1, 2019 through several trade negotiations between the two countries. These amendments did not include changes in the agricultural sector. However, given the policy direction of the Trump administration, it is difficult to be certain that the existing Korea-US FTA on the agricultural sector will remain unchanged. This study examines the potential impact of changes in the US beef import tariff rates under the Korea-US FTA, which is progressively eliminated until 2026 using a dynamic partial equilibrium model. The modelling system is simulated with 100% decreases of tariff rates over 2020~2026 period and then compared to the baseline which is developed based on the current Korea–US FTA tariff rates. According to the scenario analyses results, 100% decreases of US beef tariff rate lowered Korean beef cattle production value up to 4.23%. Looking at this change in terms of absolute value rather than percentage, the total production value over 2020~2026 is expected to decrease by 815 billion won compared to Baseline. This reduction in production value in dynamic analysis is 67 billion won higher than the comparative static analysis.