In this study the drift prediction models currently used in search and rescue(SAR) operations are introduced and the basic differences among them are analyzed by comparing the target classification, the treatment of environmental conditions, leeway equations and the determination of search area. In addition the new methods under development including AP98 of U.S. Coast Guard are compared and studied to improve the efficiency of SAR operation.

In this study a drift prediction model based on fluid dynamics theory is introduced. The essential effects of environmental loads and target characteristics are taken into account from a fluid dynamics point of view. The governing equations of motion are derived from Netwon's law of dynamics. In the mathematical formulation only three degrees of freedom(surge, sway, yaw) of the drifting object are assumed and the environmental loads considered are the forces and moments by wind and current. A computer algorithm for this model is implemented to obtain the numerical result in the time domain. The preliminary tests for model verification are conducted and the results are compared with the field experiment data as well as leeway formula suggested from the field test data.