본 연구는 두 나라로 구성된 개방 경제를 가정한 DSGE 모형을 통해 환율과 거시경제변수간의 단절현상(exchange rate disconnect)에 대한 분석과 이론적 근거를 제시하고자 한다. 기존의 DSGE 모형에 금융중개기관(financial intermediation sector)을 추가하여 환율결정과정에서 의 은행의 역할을 강조하였다. 2007년 국제금융위기이후로 최근의 자산가격연구(asset pricing theory)의 중요한 흐름은 자산가격형성에 있어서 은행이 가지는 자금조달제약(financial constraint) 의 영향을 강조하는 것이다. 본 연구에서도 은행은 1. 자국의 가계로부터의 예금조달만 가능하며 (segmented global deposit market), 2. 예금조달은 순자산 규모에 제약을 받는다(balancesheet constraint)는 두 가지 자금조달제약을 가정하였다. 이 두 가지 제약으로 인해 국가 간 소 비의 차이가 환율과 연결되지 않는다는 것을 이론적으로 분석함으로써, 환율과 거시경제변수간의 단절현상 중 하나인 배커스-스미스 퍼즐(Backus-Smith puzzle)에 대한 하나의 근거를 제공하였 다. 모형을 미국과 캐나다의 주요 거시 경제 변수 moment 들에 맞춘 실증 분석 결과, 두 나라의 소비 차이와 환율의 상관계수는 -0.25로 나타나 일반적으로 두 변수간 음(-)의 상관계수를 보이는 배커스-스미스 퍼즐과 부합하였다.

본 연구는 최근에 양국간 환율을 고려한 개방형 거시경제모형들이 많이 시도되고 있는 점에 비추어 원화 환율이 우리나라 경제에 큰 영향을 주고 있는 미국, 일본 등 주요국 물가와 장기구매력평가관계를 유지하고 있는가를 검정하였다. 우리의 주요 교역상대국들간의 구매력 평가관계 성립여부에 대한 실증분석을 통하여 상대물가수준 변화에 따른 환율재조정이 각국의 국제경쟁력을 유지할 만큼 적절히 이루어지고 있는가를 살펴보았다. 본 연구는 국내외 기존의 구매력평가관계에 대한 실증연구들에서 제기된 제반 문제점들을 극복하고자 실질 환율에 대한 단위근검정, Engle and Granger의 잔차기준 공적분검정, 오차수정모형(ECM)에 의한 공적분검정과 Johansen 이 제안한 다변량 공적분검정법을 체계적으로 적용하였다. 분석결과, 실질환율에 대한 단위근 검정결과를 보면 ADF 검정에서는 WPI를 사용한 마르크화, 캐나다 달러화 환율과 CPI를 사용한 파운드화 환율을 제외하고는 구매력평가관계가 성립되지 못하는 것으로 나타났다. Phillips-Perron 검정에서는 어느 경우에도 구매력평가관계가 성립되지 못하는 것으로 나타났다. 잔차기준 공적분 검정결과는 WPI를 기준으로 한 마르크화 검정과 CPI를 기준으로 한 카나다 달러화 검정을 제외하고는 구매력평가관계가 성립하지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 오차수정모형(ECM)에 의한 검정결과는 미국, 일본, 영국에서 공적분관계가 존재함을 나타내고 있다. Johansen 검정결과를 보면, 우리나라는 미국, 일본,독일 및 영국과 1개의 공적분벡터가 존재하며 장기 구매력평가관계가 성립한다고 할 수 있다. 카나다와는 공적분벡터를 갖지 못하는 것으로 나타나 장기구매력관계가 성립한다고 할 수 없다. Johansen 분석에서 공적분백터를 갖는 경우, 이에 대응하는 조정벡터를 살펴보면 명목환율에 계수가 국내물가나 상대국 물가변수보다도 월등히 큰 것으로 나타나고 있다. 이는 구매력 평가관계가 균형에서 일탈되었을 경우에는 다시 균형으로 회복되는데는 물가보다도 환율의 역할이 무엇보다도 크다는 것을 의미한다.

This study examines how the health of the banks in ASEAN-3 countries namely Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand respond to the change in exchange rates and foreign interest rates in four large economies. The transmissions of the two external factors through domestic factors in each ASEAN-3 countries eventually affects Non-Performing Loan (NPL) of commercial banks. This study uses the monthly time series data and the renowned Structural Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model comprising five variables, namely exchange rate, foreign interest rate, domestic interest rate, money supply, and non-performing loan (NPL). The results indicate that there are different effects between ASEAN-3 countries, which can be classified as short-run effect and long-run effect. In the long run effect, external factors have a dominant role in determining NPL in ASEAN-3 countries. Yuan has the biggest effect on Malaysia’s NPL, while Indonesia is more affected by European interest rates rather than the fluctuation of the US currency and China’s interest rates. Among ASEAN-3 countries, Malaysia is the one that is the most vulnerable to external factors. While Thailand’s NPL is affected dominantly by domestic factors. This study shows that the Fed Funds Rate (US official interest rate) is not always the dominant factor affecting the health of domestic banks in ASEAN-3.

The paper aims to test long-term and short-term causality from four exchange rates, the Korean won/$US, the Korean won/Euro, the Korean won/Japanese yen, and the Korean won/Chinese yuan, to the Korea Composite Stock Price Index in the presence of several macroeconomic variables using monthly data from January 1986 to June 2018. The results of Johansen cointegration tests show that there exists at least one cointegrating equation, which indicates that long-run causality from an exchange rate to the Korean stock market will exist. The results of vector error correction estimates show that: for long-term causality, the coefficient of the error correction term is significant with a negative sign, that is, long-term causality from exchange rates to the Korean stock market is observed. For short-term causality, the coefficient of the Japanese yen exchange rate is significant with a positive sign, that is, short-term causality from the Japanese yen exchange rate to the Korean stock market is observed. The coefficient of the financial crises i.e. 1997-1999 Asian financial crisis and 2007- 2008 global financial crisis on the endogenous variables in the model and the Korean economy is significant. The result indicates that the financial crises have considerably affected the Korean economy, especially a negative effect on money supply.

The study examines the magnitude of economic spillover and the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on the efficiency of the bank industry in China. This study employs unit root tests, cointegration tests and cointegrating regression analysis, including fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) and dynamic OLS (DOLS) to test the proposed hypotheses. The sample is restricted to the period of time in which monthly data is available and comparable among variables for the period from January 2002 to October 2013 (142 observations). All of the time series data was collected and retrieved from the People’s Bank of China, China Monthly Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, and International Financial Statistics database from International Monetary Fund. The results of the Johansen cointegration test suggest that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between FDI inflows, foreign exchange rate and banks performance in China. The results of cointegrating regression analysis using FMOLS, CCR and DOLS suggest that M2 supply and FDI inflows are significant at the 0.01 level. The results confirm that FDI inflows in the banking sector are positively related to the increase of banks productivity and performance and short-term loans in China. However, the results suggest that Chinese Yuan currency exchange rate to U.S. dollar is not significant in the banking and financial industry of China.

Purpose – Many countries rely on currency depreciation or debt-financed government spending to stimulate their economies. Currency depreciation tends to increase net exports and aggregate demand but reduce short-run aggregate supply due to higher import costs. Debt-financed government spending increases aggregate demand, but the crowding-out effect due to a higher real interest rate may reduce private spending and aggregate demand. Therefore, the net impact of currency depreciation or debt-financed government spending on equilibrium real GDP is unclear. Research design, data, and methodology - This paper examines potential impacts of real depreciation of the ringgit, more government debt as a percent of GDP and other relevant macroeconomic variables on aggregate output in Malaysia. Results - Applying the AD/AS model, this paper finds that aggregate output in Malaysia is positively associated with real appreciation during 2005.Q3-2010.Q3, real depreciation during 2010.Q4-2016.Q1, the debt-to-GDP ratio and the real stock price, negatively affected by the real lending rate and inflation expectations, and is not influenced by the real oil price. Conclusions - Real depreciation of the ringgit after 2010. Q3 or sustainable expansionary fiscal policy would be beneficial to the economy.

This study investigates the causal relationship between stock prices and exchange rates for six Middle Eastern countries, namely, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, and Saudi Arabia before and during (after) the 2007 global financial crisis for the period between January 2004 and September 2015. The sample is divided into two sub-periods, that is, the period from January 1, 2004 to September 30, 2007 and the period from October 1, 2007 to September 30, 2015, to represent the pre-crisis period and the post-crisis period, respectively. Using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model in a multivariate framework (including two control variables, inflation rates and oil prices) the results suggest that in the case of Jordan, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, there exists bidirectional causalities after the crisis period but not the before. The opposite status is available for the case of Iran. In the case of Oman, there is bidirectional causality between the variables of interest in both periods. The results also reveal that the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates has become stronger after the 2007 global financial crisis. Overall, the results of this study indicate that fluctuations in foreign exchange markets can significantly affect stock markets in the Middle East.

Based on a simultaneous-equation model consisting of aggregate demand and short-run aggregate supply, this paper estimates a reducedform equation specifying that the equilibrium real GDP is a function of the real effective exchange rate, the government deficit as a percent of GDP, the real interest rate, foreign income, labor productivity, the real oil price, the expected inflation rate, and the interactive and intercept binary variables accounting for a potential change in the slope of the real effective exchange rate and shift in the intercept. Applying the exponential GARCH technique, it finds that aggregate output in Australia has a positive relationship with the real effective exchange rate during 2003.Q3 – 2013.Q2, the government deficit as a percent of GDP, U.S. real GDP, labor productivity and the real oil price and a negative relationship with the real effective exchange rate during 2013.Q3 – 2016.Q1, the real lending rate and the expected inflation rate. These results suggest that real appreciation was expansionary before 2013.Q3 whereas real depreciation was expansionary after 2013.Q2 and that more government deficit as a percent of GDP would be helpful to stimulate the economy. Hence, the impact of real appreciation or real depreciation on real GDP may change overtime. Keywords: Exchange Rates, Government Deficit, Interest Rates,

This paper empirically examines the short-run and long-run causal relationship between stock market prices and exchange rates in Chinese stock markets using monthly data from January 2002 to December 2012 retrieved from the National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China. Unit root, cointegration tests, vector error correction estimates, block exogeneity Wald tests, impulse responses, variance decomposition techniques and structural break tests are employed. This study found 1) long-run causality from exchange rates to stock prices in Chinese stock markets and 2) short-run causality from Japanese yen and Korean won exchange rates to stock prices in the Shanghai Stock Exchange strongly prevails while in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange weakly prevails . The impact of the global financial crisis from 2007 to 2009 on Chinese stock markets was insignificant.