The US-Korea FTA, in its initial days of negotiation saw severe protests by public and political turmoil in Seoul. After crossing several procedural hoops and political hurdles in parliaments of both countries it became effective in 2012, though it was signed in 2007. At that time, it was considered by the US a ‘model agreement’ which could open opportunities for the US exporters in the Korean market. However, only couple of years later, the Trump administration called this FTA a ‘horrible’ deal that has ‘destroyed’ America. Thus, the Trump administration wanted to scrap the FTA. After considering the political implications of such action, the US government decided to re-negotiate the FTA so that the US concerns are addressed. In a short period of negotiation, both sides agreed to the revised terms of the FTA which has become effective from January 1, 2019. This paper analyses outcomes of the revised US-Korea FTA, 2018 from the US perspective and evaluate if all concerns of the US are met.

The 2018 amendment of the KORUS has made an important stride in the investment chapter of the agreement. In particular, the amendment introduced new provisions to regulate multiple, subsequent or parallel ISDS proceedings involving the same governmental measures. The new provisions, however, arguably contain inherent limitations. They will be able to address only some of the multiple, subsequent or parallel proceedings. They then leave open a possibility where essentially the same investor raises a series of ISDS proceedings against essentially the same measures by an advance planning on the scope of ‘measures’ and/or form of ‘control.’ This means that the new provisions will not be able to fully prevent multiple, subsequent or parallel proceedings in the same context or circumstances from taking place, as was originally intended by the drafters. More detailed wordings and elaborations would have helped to achieve the objective. Future Joint Committee discussions or additional amendments should consider such clarification or elaboration.

본 논문에서는 선행연구와 달리 냉장육 돼지고기와 냉동육 돼지고기에 대한 서로 다른 관세철폐 일정을 명시적으로 고려하여 한․미 FTA가 국내 돼지고기 시장에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 국산 돼지고기의 균형가격은 최소 2.69%에서 최대 15.96%까지 감소하고, 물량은 최소 1.35%에서 최대 5.6%까지 감소할 수 있는 것으로 시뮬레이션 된다. 또한 부위별로 보면 관세철폐 이행 이후 돼지고기의 도매가격은 kg당 최소 100원에서 최대 1300원까지 하락할 수 있는 것으로 분석된다. 이러한 분석결과는 한·EU의 협상결과나 DDA 협상 타결로 인한 다른 나라 돼지고기의 수입증가와 같은 돼지고기 시장의 다른 측면과 돼지고기가 타 육류와 가지는 대체관계 등은 고려하지 않은 것이기 때문에, 본 논문의 분석결과는 다른 모든 조건이 일정하다는 가정 하에 미국산 돼지고기의 수입가격이 하락한 상황이 가져오는 효과만을 분석했다는 전제하에 이해되어야 한다.