PURPOSES: The purpose of this study is to examine public transport service indexes to deal with traffic congestion problems that occur in old industrial complexes during peak hours in an attempt to shift personal car-oriented transportation to public transit-oriented transportation. METHODS : We developed several models to evaluate the effect of public transport service indexes on worke’s mode choice using two primary parameters: overall bus service frequency in old industrial complexes and accessibility to bus stops. Ten old industrial complexes were selected to conduct the survey of workers’commuting patterns. From the survey, personal and travel time attributes were collected and used to estimate a binary logistic model with public transport service parameters. RESULTS : As a result, the mode choice model including the overall bus service frequency variable, better explains than other models indicating providing more frequent bus services to workers in the old industrial complexes can attract them to shift their travel mode to bus transit from personal car. Results can be applied to corresponding city’s bus transit service policy decisions. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, it was possible to estimate the variation of mode choice ratio according to the change of the public transport index, and the mode choice variation by each individual industrial complex can be expected to examine in the further study.

Interest about Modal Shift is not being decreased, and it is drawing limelight as green logistics which meets low carbon green growth of National development vision. As an effect of Modal Shift, not only reduction in CO2 emission but also reduction in social cost, logistics cost etc. are being discussed. However, until now research about its practical transformation effect has been scanty. In this study, the actual expenses via CO2 emission, social cost, and logistics cost etc. by road transportation and rail transportation of container cargo with Origin/Destination between Busan-Kyeonggi Area were calculated and we propose beneficial effects when transportation mode is transformed from road to rail with Scenario Planning.

The lorry based transportation system in korea has many problems such as high domestic logistic cost, environment pollution and road damage etc. Hereupon, the necessity of improvement for national logistics system has been proposed continuously. Therefore we carried out this research through AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) to measure relative importance between effect factors and constraint factors and examined the possibility of Modal Shift from lorry transportation to coastal transportation. As the results of this research, the relative priority on modal shift policy enforcement (0.556) is higher than that of maintenance of the present transportation system(0.444).