Climate change significantly impacts biodiversity, particularly for endemic species in restricted habitats. This study focuses on the Korean fir (Abies koreana), an alpine conifer species in South Korea, to evaluate potential habitat changes under SSP climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5- 8.5). Using high-resolution ensemble climate data from the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) and integrating 10 species distribution models (SDMs) into an ensemble model, we predicted habitat suitability for the period 2010~2090. The species data was refined and constructed with a focus on location data so that it could be used in this model, using the National Ecosystem Survey, Baekdudaegan Conservation Area Survey of the National Institute of Ecology, and the National Park Natural Resources DB of National Park Service. The results identified BIO1 (mean annual temperature) and BIO13 (Precipitation of Wettest Month) as the most influential bioclimatic variables for habitat suitability. SSP1-2.6 exhibited fluctuating habitat area with partial recovery by 2070s, while SSP5-8.5 projected a near-complete loss of suitable habitats by 2090s. The ensemble model demonstrated robust performance, providing reliable predictions across all scenarios. This study highlights the substantial impact of climate change on the habitat suitability of Abies koreana and underscores the importance of understanding these changes to preserve vulnerable alpine ecosystems.

Various social and environmental problems have recently emerged due to global climate change. In South Korea, coniferous forests in the highlands are decreasing due to climate change whereas the distribution of subtropical species is gradually increasing. This study aims to respond to changes in the distribution of forest species in South Korea due to climate change. This study predicts changes in future suitable areas for Pinus koraiensis, Cryptomeria japonica, and Chamaecyparis obtusa cultivated as timber species based on climate, topography, and environment. Appearance coordinates were collected only for natural forests in consideration of climate suitability in the National Forest Inventory. Future climate data used the SSP scenario by KMA. Species distribution models were ensembled to predict future suitable habitat areas for the base year (2000-2019), near future (2041-2060), and distant future (2081-2100). In the baseline period, the highly suitable habitat for Pinus koraiensis accounted for approximately 13.87% of the country. However, in the distant future (2081- 2100), it decreased to approximately 0.11% under SSP5-8.5. For Cryptomeria japonica, the habitat for the base year was approximately 7.08%. It increased to approximately 18.21% under SSP5-8.5 in the distant future. In the case of Chamaecyparis obtusa, the habitat for the base year was approximately 19.32%. It increased to approximately 90.93% under SSP5-8.5 in the distant future. Pinus koraiensis, which had been planted nationwide, gradually moved north due to climate change with suitable habitats in South Korea decreased significantly. After the near future, Pinus koraiensis was not suitable for the afforestation as timber species in South Korea. Chamaecyparis obtusa can be replaced in most areas. In the case of Cryptomeria japonica, it was assessed that it could replace part of the south and central region.