This research is the result on calculating the logical speed limit through certain process which some elements must be considered on selecting the speed limit of harbour and waterway. The suggested speed limit select model on this research is processed from 1~6 steps by forming a professional group of experts. Each step has its information which 1st step(water division), 2nd step(selecting the model vessel and vessel applied with speed limit.), 3rd step(selecting the maximum and minimum speed range on each section), 4th step(evaluation on the safeness of traffic), 5th step(suggesting the appropriate speed limit), 6th step(execution and evaluation.). The appropriate speed limit was decided on consideration of the safety of maritime traffic on the range of the maximum speed and the minimum speed. This model was used to derive the appropriate speed limit on the harbour water and Busan harbour entrance waterway. As the result, the harbour water was calculated to be 6.9 knots, the appropriate speed limit of Busan entrance harbour was 9.3 knots. The present calculation of the speed limit on the approaching channel area is 10 knots, inner harbour area is 7 knots, which are similar to the result of the speed limit. This research is the first research on selecting the speed limit model and has its limits on finding the perfect speed limit result. More detailed standards on the safeness of traffic evaluation must be found and additional study is necessary on discriminating consideration of the elements. This research has its value which it provides instances of aboard cases on guidelines of selecting the speed limit.

본 연구는 제한속력 설정 모델 개발을 위한 1차 연구로서 제한속력 설정 시 고려요소에는 어떤 것이 있으며, 각 요소별 중요도는 얼마나 되는지에 대한 연구의 결과이다. 고려요소 식별과 중요도 산정을 위해 델파이(Delphi)기법과 AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process)기법을 이용하였다. 델파이 설문은 3차에 걸쳐 수행하였고 3차에 걸친 설문을 통해 5개 상위요소(Level 1)와 23개 하위요소(Level 2)가 식별되었다. 3차 델파이 설문과정에서 내용타당도비율(CVR)값이 0.4~1.0 범위에 있으면 제한속력 설정 시 고려요소로서 반영하였고 0.4 미만의 값은 고려요소에서 제외하였다. 2차 델파이 설문과정에서 33개 고려요소가 식별되었으나 3차 설문을 통해 23개 항목으로 축소되었다. 델파이 3차 분석을 통해 얻은 23개 항목을 대상으로 AHP 설문을 수행하였다. AHP 설문 결과, 5개 상위요소(Level 1)에 대한 중요도는 교통조건이 가장 중요한 요소로 평가되었고, 선박조건, 항로조건, 자연조건, 외부지원 및 기타 조건 순으로 평가되었다. 23개 하위요소 중에서 시정이 가장 중요(1위)하다고 평가되었으며, 선박조종성능, 항로 내 수중장애물, 교통량 및 밀도, 통항선박간 거리, 타효가능속력, 조류 순으로 평가되었다.