As sewerage systems have obsolete, as quality and service level standards increase, and as rain characteristics change, the sewerage utility authorities are challenged to develop cost recovery strategies that assure financial sustainability. In this study, we conducted scenario analysis to examine the effect of three alternatives of partial or full sewerage cost recovery in Seoul during 2014-30 periods. It turned out that the alternative 1 is optimal and recommended. According to alternative 1, we had better increase annually sewerage fee by 14.8% until 2020 and thereafter apply only the inflation rate in setting sewerage fee. It would gradually decrease the deficit after 2019. The accumulated deficit of 13 billion Won in 2030 was estimated.We expect that this kind of analysis may provide useful informations to help sewage utility staffs, decision makers, and regulatory authorities understand, develop and implement ultimate full cost recovery strategy for many municipalities.

본 연구는 패널자료(15개 시도의 20년간 자료)를 이용하여 홍수피해 비용과 복구비와의 상관관계에 대한 분석을 시도하였다. 패널 분석은 자료의 성격에 따라 고정효과모형 또는 확률효과모형을 사용하지만 본 분석은 두 모형을 함께 추정하였다. 예상대로 모든 변수들은 복구비와 정의 상관관계를 보였지만 사망자수와 이재민 수는 유의하지 않거나 오히려 음의 상관관계를 보이기도 하였다. 그리고 공공시설의 피해가 가장 중요한 인자였다. 무엇보다 중요한 것은 우리나라의