Recently, Choe & Cheng (2002) have demonstrated that multiple magnetic flux systems with closed configurations can have more magnetic energy than the corresponding open magnetic fields. In relation to this issue, we have addressed two questions: (1) how much fraction of eruptive solar active regions shows multiple flux system features, and (2) what winding angle could be an eruption threshold. For this investigation, we have taken a sample of 105 front-side halo CMEs, which occurred from 1996 to 2001, and whose source regions were located near the disk center, for which magnetic polarities in SOHO/MDI magnetograms are clearly discernible. Examining their soft X-ray images taken by Yohkoh SXT in pre-eruption stages, we have classified these events into two groups: multiple flux system events and single flux system events. It is found that 74% (78/105) of the sample events show multiple flux system features. Comparing the field configuration of an active region with a numerical model, we have also found that the winding angle of the eruptive flux system is slightly above 1.5π.

Halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) originating from solar activities give rise to geomagnetic storms when they reach the Earth. Variations in the geomagnetic field during a geomagnetic storm can damage satellites, communication systems, electrical power grids, and power systems, and induce currents. Therefore, automated techniques for detecting and analyzing halo CMEs have been eliciting increasing attention for the monitoring and prediction of the space weather environment. In this study, we developed an algorithm to sense and detect halo CMEs using large angle and spectrometric coronagraph (LASCO) C3 coronagraph images from the solar and heliospheric observatory (SOHO) satellite. In addition, we developed an image processing technique to derive the morphological and dynamical characteristics of halo CMEs, namely, the source location, width, actual CME speed, and arrival time at a 21.5 solar radius. The proposed halo CME automatic analysis model was validated using a model of the past three halo CME events. As a result, a solar event that occurred at 03:38 UT on Mar. 23, 2014 was predicted to arrive at Earth at 23:00 UT on Mar. 25, whereas the actual arrival time was at 04:30 UT on Mar. 26, which is a difference of 5 hr and 30 min. In addition, a solar event that occurred at 12:55 UT on Apr. 18, 2014 was estimated to arrive at Earth at 16:00 UT on Apr. 20, which is 4 hr ahead of the actual arrival time of 20:00 UT on the same day. However, the estimation error was reduced significantly compared to the ENLIL model. As a further study, the model will be applied to many more events for validation and testing, and after such tests are completed, on-line service will be provided at the Korean Space Weather Center to detect halo CMEs and derive the model parameters.