In response to the 2008 global financial crisis, many of the world’s largest central banks initiated unconventional monetary policies such as quantitative easing when standard open market operations became ineffective. The Bank of Japan, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Community Bank were among those that aggressively increased their respective monetary bases to purchase specified financial assets from commercial banks and financial institutions in order to lower interest rates interest rates for specific debt securities and stimulate their economies. Japan, which has long suffered from years of debilitating deflationary cycles, has targeted and committed to open-ended purchases until a stable two percent rate of consumer price inflation is achieved. Several of Japan’s chief exporting rivals, in particular China, have publicly criticized the Bank of Japan for using its current monetary policy to intentionally devalue its currency and thereby benefit from an unfair trade practice. This criticism is unwarranted and Japan’s policy complies with international law.
The estimate on volatility of stock price is related with optimum of portfolio and Important for allocation of capital asset. If the volatility of stock price is varied according to macroeconomic variables on monetary policy and industrial production, it will assist capital asset to allocate. This paper is related with stock market volatilities on macroeconomic variables in U.S. and Europe, Korea. And, it Is pertain to vary in time of this variables. Thus, this paper is related with volatilities of monetary and physical macroeconomic variables on basis of statistics. And, it is ranged front capital investment to portfolio allocation. Also, this paper takes out of sample forecast and study more after this. In case Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands, the relative importance of monetary policy and Industrial production Is different from these countries. In case Italy and the Netherlands, monetary policy is primary factor at stabilizing for volatility of stock price. In case Korea, increasing monetary policy and industrial production is positively affected stock market. It is that the positive effect of stock price is caused by mollifying monetary policy and economic growth. Specially, this conclusion is similar to US. In Korea, gradual increase in monetary and industrial production is necessary to stability of stock market. It is different to previous results on basis of increasing stock price of money in long period.
This paper investigates the impact of monetary policy independence shock on bond yield by allowing for heterogeneous coefficients in the model based on panel data for 19 developing countries using quarterly data from 1991 to 2016. First, we estimate the model using conventional panel VAR estimation with the assumption of homogeneous coefficients across countries. Second, by performing Chow and Roy-Zellner tests to check the homogeneity assumption, we find that the assumption does not hold in the model. Third, we apply a meangroup estimation for panel VAR as a solution for heterogeneity panel model. The results reveal that central bank independence is effective in reducing bond yield with the maximum at period 6 after the shock. Shock one standard deviation bond yield has a negative effect on consumption and investment. We determine that central bank independence has a contradictory effect on real activity; a negative effect on consumption but a positive influence on investment for the first two years after the shock. Additionally, we split our sample into three groups to make the subgroups pool. Our empirical result shows that monetary policy independence shock reduces bond yield. Meanwhile, the response of economic activity to bond yield varies for all three groups.
The effectiveness of monetary policy critically depends upon how well the transmission mechanism functions, so that the desired impact on output and inflation is achieved. The purpose of this paper is to study the transmission mechanism of monetary policy by analyzing the impact on inflation and output during multiple indicator regime (1998-99 to 2014) in an emerging economy-India. The Inflation Targeting Regime is also briefly outlined alongwith the impact on output and inflation. Using quarterly data for the period 1997 to 2017, the paper uses weighted average call money market rate as a proxy for the policy rate and evaluates the strength of the interest rate channel. We use a conventional Structural vector auto regression (SVAR) methodology to evaluate the efficacy and show the impluse response functions. Our results find that changes in the policy rate impact output growth steeply with a lag of about two quarters and the impact on inflation is maximized after three quarters. The study concludes that the monetary policy in India has a significant impact on output and inflation in the short-to-medium-run. After the policy shock, the fall in the output growth rate is of greater magnitude than the fall in inflation.
Purpose – This paper examines whether fiscal and monetary expansion would affect output in Australia.
Research design, data, and methodology – An extended IS-LM model which describes the equilibrium in the goods market and the money market is applied. The real effective exchange rate and the real stock price are included in order to determine whether there may be any substitution or wealth effect. The sample consists of Annual data ranging from 1990 to 2018. The GARCH process is used in empirical work to correct for potential autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity.
Results – Expansionary fiscal policy reduces output; whereas, expansionary monetary policy raises output. In addition, real appreciation of the Australian dollar, a lower U.S. interest rate, a higher real stock price or a lower expected inflation would increase output. The finding that expansionary fiscal policy has a negative impact on real GDP suggests that the negative crowding-out effect on private spending dominates the positive impact.
Conclusions – Fiscal prudence needs to be pursued. Real depreciation of the Australian dollar hurts output. Monetary tightening in the U.S. generates a negative effect on Australia’s output. A healthy stock market is conducive to economic growth as higher stock prices tend to result in the wealth and other positive effects, increasing consumption and business spending.
Purpose - The adjustment of one country's monetary policy can cause the macroeconomic change of other countries. Due to this, this paper attempts to analyze the impact of China’s monetary policy on South Korea’s exchange rate.
Research design, data, and methodology - Based on the flexible-price monetary model, sets of annual time series from 1980 to 2017 are employed to perform an empirical estimation. The vector error correction model is also used to exploit the short-run relationship between both of them. Of course, the South Korea’s real GDP, the China’s real GDP, South Korea’s interest rate, the South Korea’s interest rate and the South Korea’s monetary supply are treated as independent variables in this paper.
Result - The long-run findings reveal that the China’s money supply has a negative effect on South Korea’s exchange rate. Respectively, the short-run findings depicts that the China’s money supply has negative a effect on South Korea’s exchange rate. Of course, other variables selected in this paper also have an effect on South Korea’s exchange rate whatever positive or negative.
Conclusions - As the empirical evidence shows, the China’s monetary policy has a negative effect on South Korea’s exchange rate whenever in the long run or in the short run.