PURPOSES : Construction cost estimates are important information for business feasibility analysis in the planning stage of road construction projects. The quality of current construction cost estimates are highly dependent on the expert's personal experience and skills to estimate the arithmetic average construction cost based on past cases, which makes construction cost estimates subjective and unreliable. An objective approach in construction cost estimation shall be developed with the use of machine learning. In this study, past cases of road projects were analyzed and a machine learning model was developed to produce a more accurate and time-efficient construction cost estimate in teh planning stage. METHODS : After conducting case analysis of 100 road construction, a database was constructed including the road construction's details, drawings, and completion reports. To improve the construction cost estimation, Mallow's Cp. BIC, Adjusted R methodology was applied to find the optimal variables. Consequently, a plannigs-stage road construction cost estimation model was developed by applying multiple regression analysis, regression tree, case-based inference model, and artificial neural network (ANN, DNN). RESULTS : The construction cost estimation model showed excellent prediction performance despite an insufficient amount of learning data. Ten cases were randomly selected from the data base and each developed machine learning model was applied to the selected cases to calculate for the error rate, which should be less than 30% to be considered as acceptable according to American Estimating Association. As a result of the analysis, the error rates of all developed machine learning models were found to be acceptable with values rangine from 17.3% to 26.0%. Among the developed models, the ANN model yielded the least error rate. CONCLUSIONS : The results of this study can help raise awareness of the importance of building a systematic database in the construction industry, which is disadvantageous in machine learning and artificial intelligence development. In addition, it is believed that it can provide basic data for research to determine the feasibility of construction projects that require a large budget, such as road projects.

본 계획의 대상지는 강원도 동해시 부곡동 태평북로로 발한동주민센터에서 발한삼거리를 지나 구 버스터미널까지 입지하고 있는 가로구간이다. 계획의 기본 방향은 첫째, 구 도심지의 재정비로 거리활력을 창조하고 둘째, 도시디자인 가이드라인에 맞추어 설계되어야하고, 마지막으로 환경친화적이며 주변 환경과의 조화에 중점을 두고자 하였다. 가로환경의 디자인 기본방향을 통합디자인 컨셉으로 설정하였고 과도한 디자인을 적용하는 것보다는 보행의 안전성과 연속성이 무엇보다 가장 중요하다는 것에 중점을 두었다. 본 계획은 보다 합리적이고 체계적인 가로를 조성하고 보행자 환경을 개선하여 낙후된 구 도심권의 상권을 회복하고 지역균형발전을 촉진하며 경관개선을 통한 주민 삶의 질 향상에 기여할 것 이다.

요금을 지불하게 되는 유료도로에 대해서는 별도의 가중치를 산정하여 교통계획 모형 내에서 모델링 할 수 있도록 해야 하나 현존하는 유료도로의 가중치 산정방법에서 발생하는 문제점은 현실과 유사한 통행패턴을 설명하기에 부적당하다. 본 연구는 국가교통DB센터에서 이미 정산된 가중치, 차종별 시간가치를 적용한 가중치 그리고 차로수별 교통량 비율로 수정된 가중치로서 총 세 개의 대안을 선정하여 비교 분석하였다. 그 결과 국가교통DB센터에서 정산되어 차로수의 구분없이 동일한 가중치를 적용하였을 경우에는 허용오차범위 내에 포함된 샘플수가 다른 시나리오에 비해 비교적 다수 포함되었으나 현재 유료도로의 차로수별 할인율과 할증률을 반영하지 않고 정산되었다는 점에서 현실에 맞지 않는 방법론으로 분석되었다. 또한 차종별 시간가치를 이용한 가중치는 현재 적용되는 가중치 중에서 가장 이론적으로 정립되었다고 할 수 있으나 가중치의 비율이 낮게 적용됨으로서 배정교통량이 과다예측 되는 결과로 나타났다. 그러나 차종별 시간가치와 차로수별 교통량 비율을 합산하여 재 산정한 가중치를 적용한 결과는 세 개의 대안 중 가장 현실에 근접한 통행배정 결과로 분석되었다. 또한 통행배정 방법에 있어 총량OD평형배정방법이 PCU통행배정방법보다 현실에 가까운 배정결과가 나타나는 것으로 나타났다.

The purpose of this study is to develop a simulation model of rural road path for infrastructure of green-tourism and public service in rural areas. This study makes an objective function for moving cost minimization considering car travel time according to road characteristics, which can route the optimal shortest road paths between the center places and all rear villages, based on GIS coverages of road-village network for connecting between center places and rural villages as input data of the model. In order to verify the model algorithm, a homogeneous hexagonal network, assuming distribution of villages with same population density and equal distance between neighborhood villages on a level plane area, was tested to simulate the optimal paths between the selected center nodes and the other rear nodes, so that the test showed reasonable shortest paths and road intensity defined in this study. The model was also applied to the actual rural area, Ucheon-myun, which is located on Hoengsung-gun, Kangwon-do, with 72 rural villages, a center village (Uhang, 1st center place) in the area, a county conte. (Hoengsung-eup, 2nd center place), and a city (Wonju, 3rd center place), as upper settlement system. The three kinds of conte. place, Uhang, Hoengsung-eup, and Wonju, were considered as center places of three scenarios to simulate the optimal shortest paths between the centers and rural villages, respectively. The simulation results on the road-village network with road information about pavement and width of road show that several spans having high intensity of road are more important that the others, while some road spans have low intensity of road.