In this study, instead of economic estimation of forecast value, we evaluated the value score(VS) of the user satisfaction using the concept of satisfaction/dissatisfaction. We compared the collective Value Scores (cVS) based on outputs of probabilistic forecasts of precipitation seasonally in Seoul and Busan during the period of 2004 to 2013 and ÿnally found the optimum threshold that can improve cVS of both cities. When using 30% threshold, the users can expect a higher cVS compared with those using other thresholds. When using the seasonal optimum threshold in Seoul, the cVS is additionally higher by 9%. These results show the level of satisfaction of the forecast that can be improved when the meteorological communities inform the users the correct threshold of the rainfall probabilistic forecast.

1. 서론
 2. 연구자료 및 방법
  1) 예보 사용자의 의사결정 기준 자료
  2) 기상자료
  3) 예보사용의 만족가치(VS)
  4) 예보 사용자 그룹의 만족가치(cVS)
 3. 결과 및 고찰
  1) 서울과 부산의 예보 정확도와 VS
  2) 서울과 부산의 cVS
  3) 최적 임계확률 사용의 cVS 개선 효과
  4) 계절별 최적 임계확률 사용의 cVS 개선 효과
 4. 결론
 사사
 주
 References

• 김인겸(국립기상연구소 정책연구과) | In-Gyum Kim
• 안숙희(국립기상연구소 정책연구과) | Suk-Hee Ahn
• 이승욱(국립기상연구소 정책연구과) | Seung-Wook Lee
• 박기준(국립기상연구소 정책연구과) | Ki-Jun Park
• 김정윤(국립기상연구소 정책연구과) | Jeong-Yun Kim
• 김백조(국립기상연구소 정책연구과) | Baek-Jo Kim
• 이기광(단국대학교 경영학과) | Ki-Kwang Lee Correspondence