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Management of Input Uncertainty in Performance Assessment of Deep Geological Repository
- 언어ENG
- URLhttps://db.koreascholar.com/Article/Detail/431221
p.271
The deep geological repository for high-level radioactive waste requires careful consideration due to its exceptionally long-term implications, making long-term impact assessments essential. However, evaluating the long-term effects of deep geological repositories using performance assessment models is accompanied by various sources of uncertainty, including uncertainties about the future, model uncertainties, and uncertainties associated with input data. These multifaceted uncertainties arise from factors such as a lack of current knowledge, contributing to a complex web of unpredictability. Managing, mitigating, and ultimately eliminating these uncertainties is crucial for ensuring the performance and safety of deep geological repositories. Currently, the Korea Radioactive Waste Agency (KORAD) is developing a complex behavior model that incorporates Thermal-Hydraulic-Mechanical-Chemical (THMC) phenomena within the disposal system using PFLOTRAN. To address model uncertainties and furthermore input data uncertainties for this intricate model, an automated sensitivity analysis system has been developed. This automated system operates without human intervention, facilitating tasks such as automatic parameter adjustments and the quantification of uncertainties. Furthermore, this system aids in identifying key factors characterized by substantial uncertainties. Through this system, it is possible to examine concentration distributions in each components of the deep disposal facility in response to changes in input data and to identify factors with significant uncertainties. The sensitivity results and key uncertainty factors obtained through this system are intended to be used for optimizing uncertainties in future research and development.
