PURPOSES : Pavement growth (PG) is a phenomenon whereby the overall length of a concrete pavement increases. The increase in length induces an axial compressive force in the concrete pavement slab, resulting in blow-up and damage of adjacent structures, such as a bridge. PG is influenced by several interacting factors, including climatic conditions, pavement materials, joint systems, incompressible particles (IP) infiltrating the joints or cracks in the slab, and an expansion caused by reactive aggregates in the concrete. However, it is difficult to predict PG and blow-up due to various complicated factors. Therefore, in this study, the pavement growth and blow-up analysis (PGBA) package program was developed to predict the PG and blow-up potential. The PGBA can consider the pavement configuration, expansion joint (EJ) configuration, climatic conditions, and design reliability. To evaluate the effects of influencing factors — such as climatic data, EJ configuration, pavement structures and materials, and design reliability — on PG and occurrence time of blow-up, a numerical example was demonstrated and a sensitivity analysis was performed. METHODS : To predict the PG, the concrete temperature was calculated using an appropriate analytical model. The trigger temperature for pavement growth(TTPG) was predicted using a statistical equation that considers pavement age, joint spacing, and precipitation. An analytical solution for estimating the concrete slab movement was performed. Through the calculated TTPG and the amount of PG, the service life of the EJ (width of EJ) can be predicted compared to the allowable width. In addition, by using analytical and finite elements, the safe temperature(Tsafe) for preventing blow-up occurrence was calculated. The blow-up occurrence was assumed to occur when the variation between the concrete temperature and TTPG was larger than Tsafe. RESULTS :As a result of the sensitivity analysis of maximum temperature and precipitation, the temperature and precipitation increase and the EJ service life and possibility of blow-up decrease. Sensitivity analysis was performed on the thermal expansion coefficient, pavement thickness, base layer type, concrete elastic modulus, and joint rotational stiffness in the concrete pavement structure and properties. In the PGBA program, the coefficient of thermal expansion and the type of base layer significantly affect the EJ life, as do the possibility of blowup and the elastic modulus. The joint rotational stiffness and pavement thickness had little effect on the EJ life but were found to affect the possible timing of blow-up. As a result of the PGBA sensitivity analysis of the width and spacing, which are the specifications of the EJ, the life of the EJ and the possibility of blow-up increased as the joint width increased; however, the EJ life and blow-up increased as the EJ interval reached a certain value. It was found that the possibility of a blow-up occurrence decreased. The results for the PGBA program in extreme weather conditions, the life span of EJs, and the possibility of blow-up in normal climates were reduced by over 50 %. CONCLUSIONS : As a result of PGBA sensitivity analysis, it was found that the substrate type, thermal expansion coefficient, precipitation, and alkali-silica reaction had the greatest influence on pavement expansion and blow-up.