The rapid industrialization and urbanization in Osaka Bay have produced many serious water pollution problems since the 1960s. A symbolic phenomenon is algae bloom (red tide), which occurred 53 times in 1976. The special law was enacted in 1973 and a number of administrative steps were taken, such as cutting COD loading, reductions in phosphorus (P) and restriction of land reclamation. As a result, the pollution of Osaka Bay has gradually been reduced, and the environment has been improved to some extent. In this study, to analyze the relations between water qualities as well as a social, economic activity by the coastal zone, the water quality data in Osaka Bay of 70 years past since 1921 were collected. Data such as population, livestock, fertilizer, industrial product etc. were also collected for estimating nutrients flowing into bay from land. It was found that the water quality was changed of a similar trend of estimated nutrients load, with delay of about four or five years.

As an effort to clarify the ecosystem of Osaka Bay, a semi-enclosed coastal area under the influence of stratification, a three-dimensional water quality model with combination of the baroclinic flow model and primitive eco-system model was constructed. The proposed model succeeded in simulating the time-depending flow and density structure and the baroclinic residual currents in Osaka Bay. In present study, we tried to improve the model by taking account of the benthic-pelagic interaction and exchange of nutrients between sea bottom sediments and overlaying water. On vertical structure, the model consists of 13 layers of water and eight layers of sediments. Long-term prediction of water quality was conducted from 1964 to 1985. This period is characterized by rapid water pollution and its decrease by the cutoff reduction of COD and P flowed into Osaka Bay. By combining the sediment model into original model, the numerical model was confirmed to shows more reasonable results in simulating the water quality in Osaka Bay.

The numerical experiments using a particle tracking model have been performed for predicting the change of water quality and shoreline. In present study, comparison of the numerical model results with the analytic solution shows that the point of the maximum concentration and the distribution pattern is very similar. The reflection effect from the boundary was newly introduced for making clear the effect of the closed boundary which set limits to application of a particle tracking model. The present model seems to reappear physical phenomenon well. This model shows well qualitative appearance of pollutant diffusion in Kwangan beach. Therefore, this model is regarded as a useful means for predicting diffusion of pollutant, movement of suspended sand, and change of water quality.