Over the years, in the field of safety assessment of geological disposal system, system-level models have been widely employed, primarily due to considerations of computational efficiency and convenience. However, system-level models have their limitations when it comes to phenomenologically simulating the complex processes occurring within disposal systems, particularly when attempting to account for the coupled processes in the near-field. Therefore, this study investigates a machine learning-based methodology for incorporating phenomenological insights into system-level safety assessment models without compromising computational efficiency. The machine learning application targeted the calculation of waste degradation rates and the estimation of radionuclide flux around the deposition holes. To develop machine learning models for both degradation rates and radionuclide flux, key influencing factors or input parameters need to be identified. Subsequently, process models capable of computing degradation rates and radionuclide flux will be established. To facilitate the generation of machine learning data encompassing a wide range of input parameter combinations, Latin-hypercube sampling will be applied. Based on the predefined scenarios and input parameters, the machine learning models will generate time-series data for the degradation rates and radionuclide flux. The time-series data can subsequently be applied to the system-level safety assessment model as a time table format. The methodology presented in this study is expected to contribute to the enhancement of system-level safety assessment models when applied.

The post-closure safety assessment of a repository is typically conducted over an extensive timescale from ten thousand to a million years. Considering that biosphere ecosystems may undergo significant changes over such lengthy periods, it is essential to incorporate the long-term evolution of the biosphere into the safety assessment. Climate change and landscape development are identified as critical drivers with the potential to impact the hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical characteristics of the biosphere. These changes can subsequently alter the migration patterns of radionuclides through the biosphere and influence human exposure doses. Therefore, this study formulates scenarios within the context of long-term biosphere evolution. We examine biosphere assessment processes employed in other countries and conduct a comparative study on scenario conditions. For example, biosphere assessment in Finland has identified sea-level changes and land-use alterations as significant factors in the long-term evolution of the biosphere. These factors are linked to Features, Events, and Processes (FEPs) associated with climate change and human activities. Sea-level changes are related to FEPs regarding climate change, land uplift, and shoreline displacement, while land-use changes are based on human activity-related FEPs (e.g., crop type, livestock and forest management, well construction, and demographics). Based on the literature review, this study has configured long-term evolution scenarios for the safety assessment of a deep geological repository for spent fuels.

Safety assessments for geological disposal systems extend over tens of thousands of years, taking into account the radiotoxicity decay period of spent nuclear fuel. During this extensive period, the biosphere experiences multiple glacial cycles, and fluctuations in seawater amounts, attributed to the formation and melting of glaciers, lead to global sea level changes known as eustacy. These sea level changes can directly influence the land-sea interface and groundwater flow dynamics, consequently affecting the pathways of radionuclide transport - an essential element of dose assessment. Therefore, this study aims to investigate how glacial cycles and sea level changes impact radionuclide transport within geological disposal systems, especially in the biosphere. To achieve this objective, we obtained climate evolution data including sea level changes for the Korean Peninsula over a 200,000-years, simulated by a General Circulation Model (GCM). These data were then employed to predict site and hydrology evolutions. The study site was conceptualized biosphere of Artificial Disposal System (ADioS), and we utilized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate hydrological evolution. These datasets, encompassing climate, site, and hydrology evolution, were collectively employed as inputs for the biosphere module of Adaptive Process-Based Total System Performance Assessment Framework (APro). Subsequently, the APro’s biosphere module calculated radionuclide transport in groundwater flow and its release into surface water bodies, considering the influences of glacial cycles and sea level changes. The results show that hydrologic changes due to sea level change are relatively minor, while the impact of sea level change on groundwater flow and discharge is significant. Additionally, we identified that among the water bodies within ADioS, including rivers, lakes, and oceans, the ocean exhibits the most substantial radionuclide outflow throughout the entire period. The spatiotemporal distributions of radionuclides computed within APro will be further processed into a grid format and used as input for the dose assessment module. Through this study, it was possible to determine the impact of long-term glacial cycles and sea level changes on radionuclide transport. Additionally, this module can serve as a valuable tool for providing the spatiotemporal variability of radionuclides required for enhanced dose assessments.

The Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) is currently developing a process-based performance assessment model known as APro. Distinguished from the previous system-level safety assessment model developed by KAERI, APro exhibits the capacity to encompass a threedimensional biosphere domain, evolving over the long term. In this study, we elucidate the methodology employed in developing the dose assessment module of APro and present the module’s functionalities. The procedural steps underlying radiation dose calculations within the APro framework can be succinctly outlined as follows: 1) Definition of a landscape model, utilizing information derived from a specified snapshot period provided by the APro biosphere transport module; 2) Generation of unit biotope objects spanning the landscape; 3) Evaluation of radionuclide transfer within the soil medium; 4) Calculation of activity concentration for flora and fauna groups; 5) Assessment of the distribution of effective dose among representative human groups; 6) Progressing through successive time steps. The APro dose calculation module exhibits notable capabilities that encompass: 1) Accounting for radionuclide decay and ingrowth; 2) Facilitating transfer through unsaturated porous media; 3) Considering sorption effects; 4) Addressing the inheritance of radioactivity between various landscape models; 5) Offering customizable ecosystem parameters; 6) Providing flexibility for user-defined exposure pathways. Leveraging these functionalities of the dose assessment module, APro is proficient in evaluating the distribution of radiological doses and associated risks for representative population groups, all while accounting for the dynamic, long-term evolution of the biosphere, including alterations in land cover.

The timescale of safety assessment for a geological disposal system is considered up to hundreds of thousands of years when the radionuclides in spent nuclear fuel decay to levels comparable to natural radioactivity. During this long period, a variety of climate changes are expected to occur, including variations in temperature and precipitation as well as long-term sea level changes and glacial cycles. These climate changes can either directly affect water balance components or indirectly affect water balance by altering terrain and vegetation that have an impact on water balance. Water balance is a significant element of safety assessment, because it affects the radionuclide transport via groundwater flow, which in turn affects the radiological risk to humans and other biotas. Therefore, it is important to understand the hydrologic response to climate changes for proving the long-term safety of the disposal system. To this end, this study performed hydrological simulations using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for several climate change scenarios. SWAT is the watershed-scale hydrological model developed by the USDA-ARS (United States Department of Agriculture - Agricultural Research Service) and has been widely used to quantify the water balance in a watershed. It calculates the hydrologic cycle based on the water balance equation with different physical processes for water balance components such as evapotranspiration, surface runoff, and groundwater recharge. This study assumed several climate change scenarios (e.g., variations in temperature and precipitation, sea level change, and formation of permafrost) and analyzed how the components of the water balance would respond under different scenarios and which scenarios would have the greatest impact on the water balance. These findings can provide valuable insights for future long-term safety assessments on the Korean Peninsula and can also be used as input data for the biosphere module of APro (Adaptive process-based total system performance assessment framework).

The Korean Nuclear Safety and Security Commission has established a general guideline for the disposal of high-level waste, which requires that radiological effects from a disposal facility should not exceed the regulatory safety indicator, a radiological risk. The post-closure safety assessment of the disposal facility aims to evaluate the radiological dose against a representative person, taking into account nuclide transport and exposure pathways and their corresponding probabilities. The biosphere is a critical component of radiation protection in a disposal system, and the biosphere model is concerned with nuclide transport through the surface medium and the doses to human beings due to the contaminated surface environment. In past studies by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), the biosphere model was constructed using a representative illustration of surface topographies and groundwater conditions, assuming that the representative surface environment would not change in the future. Each topography was conceptualized as a single compartment, and distributed surface contamination over the geometrical domain was abstracted into 0D. As a result, the existing biosphere model had limitations, such as a lack of quantitative descriptions of various transport and exposure pathways, and an inability to consider the evolution of the surface environment over time. These limitations hinder the accurate evaluation of radiological dose in the safety assessment. To overcome these limitations, recent developments in biosphere modeling have incorporated the nuclide transport process over a 2D or 3D domain, integrating the time-dependent evolution of the surface environment. In this study, we reviewed the methodology for biosphere modeling to assess the radiological dose given by distributed surface contamination over a 2D domain. Based on this review, we discussed the model requirements for a numerical module for biosphere dose assessment that will be implemented in the APro platform, a performance assessment tool being developed by the KAERI. Finally, we proposed a conceptual model for the numerical module of dose assessment.

An objective of a safety assessment for geological disposal is to evaluate the radiological impact by radionuclides release from radioactive wastes. Computational estimation of all radionuclides transport in the disposal system, however, is not neccessary because some radionuclides has negligible effect on radiological doses. For this reason, prioritization of radionuclides list is preceded before the safety assessment. The Korea Atomic Energy Research Institue (KAERI) has assessed the long-term safety of a disposal system for spent nculear fuels. Currently, thirty eight radionuclides and twenty three elements are considered in the safety assessment activity of the KAERI. Nevertheless, a screening process for radionulides selection has not been articulated yet. In this study, we reviewed radionuclides selection process in forign countries to re-establish screening criteria for the KAERI’s radionuclides list. Screeing models of the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB), the Deparment of Eenrgy (US DOE), and the Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Istitute (JNC) were compared. We found that each country developed different screening model depending on scenarios of radionuclides release. Nonetheless, there were common properties that determines the importance of radionuclides. These properties for radionuclides include halflife, radiotoxicity (or specific activity), and mobility in underground medium. Based on the review results, we proposed radionuclides selection process to prioritize the importance of radionucldies in the KAERI safety assessment.

The Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) has developed geological repository systems for the disposal of high-level wastes and spent nuclear fuels (SNFs) in South Korea. The purpose of the most recently developed system, the improved KAERI Reference Disposal System Plus (KRS+), is to dispose of all SNFs in Korea with improved disposal area efficiency. In this paper, a system-level safety assessment model for the KRS+ is presented with long-term assessment results. A system-level model is used to evaluate the overall performance of the disposal system rather than simulating a single component. Because a repository site in Korea has yet to be selected, a conceptual model is used to describe the proposed disposal system. Some uncertain parameters are incorporated into the model for the future site selection process. These parameters include options for a fractured pathway in a geosphere, parameters for radionuclide migration, and repository design dimensions. Two types of SNF, PULS7 from a pressurized water reactor and Canada Deuterium Uranium from a heavy water reactor, were selected as a reference inventory considering the future cumulative stock of SNFs in Korea. The highest peak radiological dose to a representative public was estimated to be 8.19×10-4 mSv‧yr-1, primarily from 129I. The proposed KRS+ design is expected to have a high safety margin that is on the order of two times lower than the dose limit criterion of 0.1 mSv‧yr-1.