Since the first operation of the Gori No. 1 nuclear power plant in Korea was started to operate in 1978, currently 24 nuclear power plants have been being operated, out of which 21 plants are PWR types and the rest are CANDU types. About 30% of total electricity consumed in Korea is from all these nuclear power plants. The accumulated spent nuclear fuels (SFs) generated from each site are temporarily being stored as wet or dry storage type at each plant site. These SFs with their high radiotoxicity, heat generating, and long-lived radioactivity are actually the only type of high-level radioactive waste (HLW) in Korea, which urgently requires to be disposed of in deep geological repository. Studies on disposal of HLW in various kind of geological repositories have been carried out in such countries as Sweden, Finland, United States, and etc. with their own methodologies and management policies in consideration of their situations. In Korea long-term R&D research program for safe management of SF has also been conducted during last couple of decades since around 1997, during which several various alternative type of disposal concepts for disposal of SNFs in deep geological formations have been investigated and developed. The first concept developed was KAERI Reference Disposal System (KRS) which is actually very much similar to Swedish KBS-3, a famous concept of direct disposal of SF in stable crystalline rock at a depth of around 500 m which has been regarded as one of the most plausible method worldwide. The world first Finnish repository which is expected to begin to operate sooner or later will be also this type. Since the characteristics of SF discharged from domestic nuclear reactors have been changed and improved, and burnup has sometimes increased, a more advanced deep geological repository system has been needed, KRS-HB (KRS with High Burnup SF) has been developed and in consideration of the dimensions of SNFs and the cooling period at the time point of the disposal time, KRS+, a rather improved disposal concept has also been subsequently developed which is especially focused on the efficient disposal area. Recently research has concentrated on rather advanced disposal technology focused on a safer and more economical repository system in recent view of the rapidly growing amount of accumulated SF. Especially in Korea the rock mass and the footprint area for the repository extremely limited for disposal site. Some preliminary studies to achieve rather higher efficiency repository concept for disposal of SF recently have already been emphasized. Among many possible ones for consideration of design for high-efficiency repository system, a double-layered system has been focused which is expected to maximize disposal capacity within the minimum footprint disposal area. Based on such disposal strategy a rather newly designed performance assessment methodology might be required to show long-term safety of the repository. Through the study some prerequisites for such methodological development has been being roughly checked and investigated, which covers FEP identification and pathway and scenario analyses as well as preliminary conceptual modeling for the nuclide release and transport in nearfield, far-field, and even biosphere in and around the conceptual repository system. Through the study such scenarios and models has been implemented to development of a safety assessment by utilizing GoldSim development tool for a rough quantitative comparison with existing disposal options and simple illustration purpose as well as for showing how to develop and implementation of the model to GoldSim templet.

Since the first operation of the Gori No. 1 nuclear power plant in Korea was started to operate in 1978, currently 24 nuclear power plants have been being operated, out of which 21 plants are PWR types and the rest are CANDU types. About 30% of total electricity consumed in Korea is from all these nuclear power plants. The accumulated spent nuclear fuels (SNFs) generated from each site are temporarily being stored as wet or dry storage type at each plant site. These SNFs with their high radiotoxicity, heat generating, and long-lived radioactivity are currently the only type of high-level radioactive waste (HLW) in Korea, which urgently requires to be disposed of in deep geological repository. Studies on disposal of HLW in various kind of geological repositories have been carried out in such countries as Sweden, Finland, United States, and etc. with their own management policies in consideration of their situations. In Korea long-term R&D research program for safe management of SNF has also been conducted during last couple of decades since around 1997, during which several various type of disposal concepts for disposal of SNFs in deep geological formations have been investigated and developed. The first concept developed was KAERI Reference Disposal System (KRS) which is actually very much similar to Swedish KBS-3, a famous concept of direct disposal of SNF in stable crystalline rock at a depth of around 500 m which has been regarded as one of the most plausible method worldwide to direct disposal of SNF. The world first Finnish repository will be also this type. Since the characteristics of SNF discharged from domestic nuclear reactors have been changed and improved, and burnup has sometimes increased, a more advanced deep geological repository system has been needed, KRS-HB (KRS with High Burnup SNF) has been developed and in consideration of the dimensions of SNFs and the cooling period at the time point of the disposal time, KRS+, a rather improved disposal concept has also been subsequently developed which is especially focused on the efficient disposal area. Recently research has concentrated on rather advanced disposal technology focused on a safer and more economical repository system in recent view of the rapidly growing amount of accumulated SNF. Especially in Korea the rock mass and the footprint area for the repository extremely limited for disposal site. Some preliminary studies to achieve rather higher efficiency repository concept for disposal of SNF recently have already been emphasized. Among many possible ones for consideration of design for high-efficiency repository system, a double-layered system has been focused which is expected to maximize disposal capacity within the minimum footprint disposal area. Based on such disposal strategy a rather newly designed performance assessment methodology might be required to show long-term safety of the repository. Through the study some prerequisites for such methodological development will be roughly checked and investigated, which covers FEP identification and pathway and scenario analyses as well as preliminary conceptual modeling for the nuclide release and transport in near-field, far-field, and even biosphere in and around the conceptual repository system.

Especially for near-surface repository for disposal of the low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste, safety assessment in case of inadvertent human intrusion should be handled seriously. This is because this type of incident will possibly give rise to high acute, not chronic exposure dose even though its occurrence of likelihood could higher than rather deeper geological repository for disposal of high-level radioactive waste over long time span after closure of the repository. Recently well drilling scenario for the pumping groundwater from the aquifer near the repository, among other possible inadvertent human intrusion incidents, has been popularly evaluated for the worst case due to its relatively high possibility of occurrence in parallel with normal scenarios for the nuclide transport for post-closure safety assessment of the repository. Movement of nuclide plume both in the confined and unconfined aquifer under and over a radioactive waste repository is of importance especially around an extracting well. Through this study a simple comment regarding quantification between a pumping rate from the well drilled into the aquifer as well as quantification of the plume size flowing around the well is presented. Drawdown of the well which is the change of water level of the upper water surface of the aquifer due to well pumping makes a cone of depression. And capture zone in the aquifer which is formed around the well, by which the groundwater is removed out, is the groundwater volume or area in the aquifer that is considered to contribute the extraction of the well by pumping. Usually this capture zone does not encompass the entire aquifer thickness for the partially penetrating well, which means that not all the portion of flowing groundwater through the aquifer is drawn by the well. And this capture zone does not need to coincide with the volume of the cone. Furthermore, all the nuclide plume volume is not necessarily and completely mixed with the groundwater flowing the entire aquifer. Therefore, a strategical approach might be required to grasp the aquifer portion and the plume size influenced by pumping to evaluate rather accurate radiological consequences due to the well scenario avoiding overestimation and meaningless conservatism as well, which is especially very common in the mass balance modeling e.g., by GoldSim under assumption that all the groundwater volume from the aquifer near the well extracted by the well. Although the capture zone around the well should be determined both by use of global/local groundwater flow model in the aquifer but a simple analytical model could be sought. Capture zone analysis has been widely seen in the area of the design of groundwater remediation system. If for safety assessment of the subsurface repository the plume behavior in the aquifer under the repository should be well characterized and correctly modeled, then the current study is expected to be more or less helpful to develop a specific mass balance model for nuclide transport and groundwater flow for assessment of an abnormal well drilling scenario near the repository.

A GoldSim Total System Performance Assessment has been developed and utilized for assessment of the various conceptual HLW repositories for spent nuclear fuels during last a few decades. Even though, almost all required parameter values associated with the repository system are frequently assumed or sometimes overestimated, they are still far from being highly reliable. Uncertainties nested in nuclide transport modeling around the repository are mainly dominated by these parametric uncertainties aside from intrinsic model uncertainty. Reliable estimate of the parameter values commonly expressed as probability density functions (PDFs) always require a large amount of measured data. Such input distributions are used as input to the probabilistic assessment program through Monte Carlo simulation to quantitatively provide possible uncertainty of the results. However, in most cases, especially in the safety assessment of the repository which is typically related with both long-time span and wide modeling domain, inefficient observed data from the field measurements are common, making conventional probabilistic calculations rather even uncertain. Since Bayesian approach is known to be especially powerful and efficient in the case of lacking of available data measured, such short data could be compensated by coupling with a priori belief, reducing uncertainty. By allowing the a priori knowledge for incorporating insufficient observed data, which include expert’ elicitation, their beliefs and judgment regarding the parameters as well as recent site-specific measurements, based on the Bayes’ theorem, the older parameter distributions, “prior” distribution can be updated to a rather newer and reliable “posterior” distribution. Newer distributions are not necessarily expressed as PDFs for probabilistic calculation. These updates could be done even iteratively as many times as data values are sequentially available, which calls sequential Bayesian updating, making belief of posterior distributions become much higher by reducing parametric uncertainty. To show a possible way to enhance the belief as well as to reduce the uncertainty involved in parameter for the Bayesian scheme, nuclide travel length in the far-field area of a hypothetical deep borehole spent fuel Repository was investigated. The algorithm and module that have been developed and implemented in GSTSPA through current study was shown to work well for all assumed prior, three sequential posterior distributions and likelihoods.

The Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) has developed geological repository systems for the disposal of high-level wastes and spent nuclear fuels (SNFs) in South Korea. The purpose of the most recently developed system, the improved KAERI Reference Disposal System Plus (KRS+), is to dispose of all SNFs in Korea with improved disposal area efficiency. In this paper, a system-level safety assessment model for the KRS+ is presented with long-term assessment results. A system-level model is used to evaluate the overall performance of the disposal system rather than simulating a single component. Because a repository site in Korea has yet to be selected, a conceptual model is used to describe the proposed disposal system. Some uncertain parameters are incorporated into the model for the future site selection process. These parameters include options for a fractured pathway in a geosphere, parameters for radionuclide migration, and repository design dimensions. Two types of SNF, PULS7 from a pressurized water reactor and Canada Deuterium Uranium from a heavy water reactor, were selected as a reference inventory considering the future cumulative stock of SNFs in Korea. The highest peak radiological dose to a representative public was estimated to be 8.19×10-4 mSv‧yr-1, primarily from 129I. The proposed KRS+ design is expected to have a high safety margin that is on the order of two times lower than the dose limit criterion of 0.1 mSv‧yr-1.

기존의 확률론적 안전성 평가의 신뢰도 제고를 위하여 잘 알려진 입력 파라미터의 일반적인 분포에 새롭게 측정된 신뢰도 있는 데이터를 결합하여 사후분포를 구할 수 있는 베이지안 업데이팅 방법론을 제안하였다. 마코프체인 몬테 칼로 샘플링 기법의 알고리듬을 통한 GoldSim 모듈도 개발하였다. 복수의 입력 파라미터의 사전분포에 대해 연속적으로 사후분포를 구 해낼 수 있는 베이지안 업데이팅이 가능하도록 개발된 이 모듈을 GoldSim 템플릿 형태의 기존의 GSTSPA 프로그램으로 이행하여 보다 신뢰도 있는 확률론적 방사성폐기물 처분 시스템 안전성 평가가 가능하도록 하였다. 이는 기존에 존재하는 사 전분포의 일반적인 형태는 취하되 새롭게 얻어지는 실제 측정치나 전문가들의 의견을 기존의 분포에 적용하여 보다 더 높은 믿음을 갖는 입력 파라미터의 사후분포를 얻을 수 있게 한다. 균열암반 내 핵종 이동에 관련된 몇 개의 입력 파라미터의 사전분포의 세차례의 연속적 업데이팅을 통해 프로그램의 유용성도 예시하였다. 이 연구를 통하여 처분시스템과 같이 장기적 평가가 필요하고 넓은 모델링 지역을 가지며 측정된 입력자료가 부족한 경우 보다 더 믿음직한 방법으로 안전성 평가를 수행할 수 있는 것을 보였다.

상용의 GoldSim과 GoldSim 이동 모듈 (GoldSim Transport Module; GTM)을 이용하여 방사성폐기물 처분시스템과 같이 복 잡한 질량 이동 시스템을 신뢰성 있고 효율적으로 모사할 수 있다. 그러나 GTM의 특성을 보다 정확하게 이해하여야 이를 사용하여 실제 처분시스템의 안전성 평가 프로그램을 개발할 때 발생할 수 있는 오류를 피할 수 있다는 것을 인지하는 것이 중요하다. 이를 위하여 GTM에서 다양하게 제공되는 요소 (element) 중, 질량 이동 모사에 유용한 Transport pathway의 특 징에 대하여 소개하고, 방사성폐기물 처분시스템 안전성 평가를 위해 시스템 내 핵종의 거동과 같은 질량 이동 모사에서 이 에 대한 올바른 활용 방안을 제시하였다.

당해 연구의 제 1 부 논문에서 확률론적으로 접근한 데에 이어, 파이로처리 방사성 폐기물 처분장에 대하여 폐쇄 후 처분장 의 성능에 영향을 줄 수 있는 근계 영역 내 세가지 주요 설계 관련 요소에 대하여 각 핵종별로 최종 피폭 선량에 주는 민감 도를 결정론적인 방법을 통하여 조사해 보았다. 농축 피폭 집단에 방사선 피폭을 주는 주요한 핵종들이 처분장에서 유출된 후 처분 시스템 근계 영역 내 다양한 매질을 이동하는 것에 관련되어 이들 요소가 어느 정도의 영향을 주게 되는지 보기 위 하여 제 1 부에서 처분 용기의 수명, 선원항으로서의 처분 용기에서의 연간 핵종 유출률, 그리고 처분장 주요 인공 방벽으로 서의 완충재의 손실도 등의 변화를 확률론적 접근 방법으로 검토한 데 이어, 제 2 부의 이 연구를 통해서는 통계적인 확률 론적 민감도를 검토하는 대신 세가지 인자에 대하여 가장 나쁜 경우와 이상적인 조합을 구성한 후 이를 결정론적으로 평가 하여 인지된 3개의 요소들이 제 1 부에서의 결과와 동일하게 처분장 설계에 매우 중요할 수 있다는 결과를 얻을 수 있었다.

파이로처리 방사성폐기물 처분장에서 폐쇄 후 처분장의 성능에 영향을 줄 수 있는 근계 영역 내 세가지 주요 설계 관련 요 소에 대하여 주요 핵종별로 최종 피폭 선량에 주는 민감도를 확률론적인 접근을 통하여 조사하였다. 농축 피폭 집단에 방사 선 피폭을 주는 주요한 핵종들이 처분장에서 유출된 후 처분 시스템 근계 영역 내 다양한 매질을 이동하는 것에 관련되어, 이들 요소가 어느 정도의 영향을 주게 되는지 보기 위하여 처분 용기의 수명, 선원항으로서 처분 용기에서의 연간 핵종 유출 률, 그리고 처분장 주요 인공 방벽으로서 완충재의 손실도 등의 변화에 따른 결과를 검토하였다. 처분장에 대한 결정론적, 확률론적 안전성 평가를 병행 수행하여, 이 세가지 설계 요소의 물리적 변화가 통계적 분포를 가지고 일어난다고 가정하는 확률론적 접근 방법에 따른 연구 결과는 제 1 부의 이 연구에, 그리고 세가지 설계 요소가 가질 수 있는 조합을 서로 다른 시 나리오로서 비교하는 결정론적인 방법으로 접근한 결과는 별도로 제 2 부에 제시하였다. 두 가지 접근 결과와 함께 고려된 인자들에 대하여 모두 결과에 민감한 것으로 나타나 이러한 결과와 방법론은 향후 처분장 설계에 모범적인 피드백을 줄 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

한국원자력연구원에서는 사용후핵연료를 직접 처분하는 대신 이를 처리하여 발생하는 방사성 폐기물을 심지 층에 직접 처분하는 방식의 A-KRS 개념의 방사성폐기물 처분 시스템을 개발해 오고 있다. 이러한 A-KRS 개 념에 대한 장기적 안전성 및 처분 시스템 성능 평가를 위한 모델을 GoldSim을 이용 개발하고 이를 지속적으로 수정 보완하고 개선해 오고 있다. KAERI에서 개발된 A-KRS 모델의 신뢰도를 증진 시키기 위하여 유사하게 개 발된 다른 모델과의 벤치마킹을 통한 비교 연구의 결과를 제시하였다. A-KRS모델을 미국 NRC에서 SwRI 연구 소의 협력을 통하여 개발하여 처분 시스템 성능평가에 활용한 SOAR와 비교하고 병행하여 스웨덴의 SKB에서 최근 수행한 SR-SiTE 안전성 평가를 통하여 KBS-3 개념의 처분 시스템 내 전단 응력에 따른 용기의 파손에 따른 유출 계산 결과와도 비교 검토하여, 전반적으로 상호 잘 일치하는 결과를 얻어 내었다. 보다 개선된 GoldSim으로의 모델의 이행의 필요성은 있으나 A-KRS 모델이 GoldSim을 통해 잘 이행되어 처분 시스템 안전 성 평가에 적합한 것으로 나타났다.

파이로처리 방사성 폐기물 처분 시스템에 대하여 골드심을 이용하여 개발된 확률론적 평가 프로그램을 이용하여 폐쇄후 방사선적 안전성 평가를 수행하였다. 처분장으로부터 핵종이 유출되어 다양한 처분 시스템 내 매질을 이동하는 것에 관련된 정상 시나리오에 대한 평가를 위하여, 평가 결과에 대한 민감도나 일반적으로 불확실성의 범위가 큰 입력자료 중 주요하다고 판단되는 파라미터를 9개로 선정하여 평가에 고려된 핵종 중 Tc, Sn, Pa, Cs 4개의 원소에 대하여 평가 결과를 논의해 보았다. 확률론적 안전성 평가와 함께 이들 각 입력 자료에 대한 최종 방사선 피폭선량에 대한 민감도도 분석하여 결과에 대한 각 입력 파라미터의 중요도도 비교하였다.