This study examines the persistent decline of the motorcycle industry despite governmental interventions, using the perspective of path dependency. Drawing from W. B. Arthur's concept of 'Lock-in by insignificant historical events', the research delves into the lock-in phenomena within the industry's life cycle. We identified path dependency lock-in categories: contingency, historicity, and technological lock-in. The industry's licensing production method during its embryonic phase led to limited technological capabilities, establishing a technological path dependency. During the currency crisis and in alignment with China's open-door policy, the industry chose to import cheaper components, opting for economies of scale over technological innovation, intensifying the lock-in. Furthermore, the classification of motorcycle as a free industry before the currency crisis resulted in a lack of governmental support. This neglect has continued, with even modern electric motorcycle facing regulation. In conclusion, to overcome this entrenched path dependency and lock-in, significant governmental policy restructuring is essential.

In the context of the 4th Industrial Revolution, the rise of electric vehicles and personal mobility is evident. However, regulatory authorities seem to overlook vast opportunities, placing two-wheelers in a deregulated category and focusing mainly on regulations. This paper addresses a notable trend in e-mobility, emphasizing aspects often overlooked in traditional motorcycle regulatory research. Using the industrial life cycle theory as a basis, we identify challenges that have affected traditional combustion-engine two-wheelers and offer insights to navigate similar obstacles in the future. Consequently, the domestic two-wheeler market experienced a brief surge but lacked sustainable growth prospects. However, considering Japan's success in establishing global standards and design dominance in the two-wheeler industry despite its late entry, there appears to be potential for a rebound in the domestic market.