토마토뿔나방(Phthorimaea absoluta)은 현재 전 세계 토마토 재배에 심각한 문제를 초래하는 해충이며 국내에서는 2023년에 처음 발견된 이후. 전국적으로 퍼져 국내 토마토 재배 농가에 많은 경제적 손실을 입히고 있다. 특히 친환경 토마토 재배 농가에 대한 피해가 크게 발생하였지만 친환경 방제 방법이 부족한 상황이다. 북아프리카와 유럽에서는 토마토뿔나방의 포식성 천적인 담배장님노린재 (Nesidiocoris tenuis)를 상업적으로 이용하고 있으며, 스페인에서 알벌류(Tricogrammatidae)를 토마토뿔 나방 방제에 활용하는 등 친환경 방제수단으로써 천적을 활용하고 있다. 국외에서의 천적을 이용한 토마토뿔나방 방제 사례를 수집하여 기존 국내 천적의 활용성을 검증하고 이를 토대로 국내 토착 천적의 탐색 및 효과 검증을 통한 종합적인 천적 활용 친환경 방제 전략 수립에 이용하고자 한다.

Environmental changes play a significant role in the introduction, dispersal, and establishment of invasive species. This study aims to predict the habitat suitability of the newly invasive pest P. absoluta in South Korea by thoroughly considering key environmental factors, including climate and land cover changes. First, the MaxEnt model was developed to simulate changes in habitat suitability using global occurrence data and future climate change scenarios. Subsequently, potential risk areas (PRAs) for P. absoluta within agricultural regions were analyzed based on land cover changes. The results indicated that under all Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenario combinations, the PRA for SSP1 and SSP3 in 2055 were similar, with values of 47.85% and 48.62%, respectively. However, by 2085, these areas showed a marked decrease to 39.28% and 28.52%, respectively. These findings suggest that the PRA for P. absoluta is expected to be most critical in the near future as climate and land-use changes continue to progress. This study emphasizes the urgent need for ongoing monitoring and management to prevent further invasion and spread of P. absoluta into new regions of South Korea. Additionally, it provides scientific evidence to support the development of effective control and management strategies. By thoroughly evaluating the impact of climate and land cover changes on invasive species management, this research presents a foundational framework for predicting the spread and risks of P. absoluta under future climate scenarios.