PURPOSES: The purpose of this study is to investigate factors that affect the severity of children’s traffic accidents using the ordered probit model, and to contribute to a safer road environment for children. METHODS: This study used children’s traffic accident data during the last four years in the Incheon Metropolitan area. At this point, to analyze only the direct damage caused to children, the analysis was made of accidents where the victim was under 13 years old. Data from a total of 1,110 accidents was collected. When the model was constructed, as it was judged that there could be a difference in factors affecting accident occurrence depending on the zone characteristics, the model was divided into school and non-school zones. RESULTS: The accident content (severity) is divided into four stages (fatal injury, serious injury, minor injury and injury report) to construct the order-typed probit model. For the analysis, 65 variables of 17 categories were included in the model. The statistical package STATA 13.1 was used to analyze the variables affecting the accident severity with a confidence level of 90% (α·=0.1). Consequently, a total of 15 variables were found to have a statistically significant effect on accident severity in a school zone. In contrast, a total of 22 variables were found to have a statistically significant effect on accident severity in non-school zones. Four variables (daytime, weekday, victim age, intersection) were significant in both models. CONCLUSIONS: Among the significant variables found in school zones, signal violation and type of vehicle (line bus, rent car, bus, business other vehicles) had a relatively greater effect on the accident severity than the other variables. In non-school zones, eight variables comprising daytime, head-on collision, crossing, over-speed, gender of victim (male), victim age, type of vehicle (construction machinery), driver age (50-59) were found to be significant variables. In conclusion, as well as eliminating factors that can lead to accident reductions, it is necessary to consider zone characteristics to reduce the severity of children’s accidents and promote children’s traffic safety.

PURPOSES : This study drew factors affecting motorcycle accidents in Seoul by severity using an ordered probit model and aimed to analyze and verify the drawn influence factors. METHODS: As the severity of the accidents could be classified into three types (fatal injury, serious injury and minor injury), this study drew the factors affecting accidents by a comparative analysis employing an ordered probit model, removed the variables that would not secure significance sequentially to construct a model with high explanatory power regarding the factors affecting the severity of motorcycle accidents, and calculated the marginal effect of each factor to understand the degree of each factor’s impact on the severity. First, Model 1 put in all variables; Model 2 was constructed by removing the variables of the road surface conditions that could not meet the level of significance (p=0.608); Model 3 was constructed by removing gender variable (p=0.423); and Model 4 was constructed finally by removing age variable (p=0.320). RESULTS : As a result of an analysis, statistically significant variables were time of occurrence, type of accident, road alignment and motorcycle displacement, and it turned out that the impacts on the severity were in the following order: a road alignment of left downhill, the type of motorcycle-to-vehicle accidents and a road alignment of a flatland on the left. The significance of the models was tested using the likelihood ratio, the level of significance and suitability statistics about them, and as a result of the test, the significance level and suitability of the constructed models were all excellent. In addition, the model accuracy indicating the accuracy of a predicted value compared to that of the value actually observed was 70.3% for minor injury; 70.1% for serious injury; and 68.6% for fatal injury, and the overall accuracy was 70.2%, which was very high. CONCLUSIONS: As a result of an analysis of motorcycle accidents in Seoul through the ordered probit model and the marginal effect, it turned out that their severity increased in nighttime accidents as compared to daytime ones and gradually increased in the order of motorcycleto- vehicle accidents, motorcycle-to-person ones and the ones involving motorcycle only. As a result of an analysis, the severity of accidents in road alignments of left downhill, left flatland and straight downhill increased as compared to those in a road alignment of straight flatland and that the severity of accidents of motorcycles with a displacement larger than 50cc was higher than that of those with a displacement smaller than 50cc.

운전환경에 영향을 주어 사고를 유발하는 원인에는 교통 흐름, 기상상황, 도로 기하구조 등의 환경적 요인이 있으며, 환경변화에 대한 적절치 못한 대응은 심각한 사고를 유발하여 교통혼잡, 시설물피해, 인명피해 등 사회적 비용손실로 이어지게 된다. 이에 현재 국내·외에서는 여러 요인에 따른 사고 심각도 모형의 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있으나 사고정보, 교통흐름, 기상상황, 도로 기하구조 등 다양한 환경적 요인을 복합적으로 고려한 분석은 전무하기 때문에 본 연구에서는 환경적 요인을 복합적으로 고려하여 교통사고 심각도를 모형화 했다. 사고 심각도 분석을 위해 다양한 환경적 요인에 대한 정보를 수집하고 ArcGIS를 활용하여 사고 발생지점에 수집정보를 융합하였으며, 사고로 인한 교통패턴의 변화를 피하기 위해 교통정보와 기상정보는 사고발생 5분 전의 정보를 융합 하였다. 또한 본 연구에서는 다양한 기상상황 중 강설상황의 정보만을 추출하여 사고 심각도의 관계를 분석하여 모형화 하였는데, 강설시의 환경변화는 운전자의 부주의를 유도하고 사고의 심각도를 가중시키기 때문에 그 심각도가 다른 때 보다 더 큰 경향이 있다. 사고 심각도는 순서화된 이산변수(레벨 1~4)로 표현되기 때문에 순서형프로빗(Ordered Probit)모형을 분석에 활용하였으며, 모형 분석결과 사고 심각도에 영향을 주는 변수로는 강설량, 일누적강설량, 속도, 편경사로 나타났다. 개발된 모형을 활용하여 도로이용자에게 교통안전 취약성 정보를 제공할 수 있다면 안전한 도로서비스 수준확보와 취약성 예측 및 도로 운영관리를 통한 사회적 비용 감소에 기여할 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.

This study analyses the factors that affect the satisfaction of school meals program. To obtain the data, 54 elementary, middle and high schools in Jeonbuk area were chosen for survey. A ordered probit model analysis is conducted to identify the key explanatory variables that affect the satisfaction of school meals about elementary, middle and high school’s students. Also, a ordered probit model is used to calculate marginal effects of several key variables. The study finds that key factors that affect to increase the satisfaction of school meals are rural area schools, elementary school’s students, and education for school meals or food nutrition. The satisfaction of school meals in urban and rural school’s students are significantly different. Also, the satisfaction of school meals about elementary, middle and high school's students are significantly different. To do this, importance of school meals is to build up the safe agricultural supply system. For safe agricultural supply system, local agricultural products provided in school meals should be supplied based on GAP, HACCP certificated companies such as US FTS(Farm to School) program.