This paper proposed data driven techniques to forecast the time point of water management of the water reservoir without measuring manganese concentration with the empirical data as Juam Dam of years of 2015 and 2016. When the manganese concentration near the surface of water goes over the criteria of 0.3mg/l, the water management should be taken. But, it is economically inefficient to measure manganese concentration frequently and regularly. The water turnover by the difference of water temperature make manganese on the floor of water reservoir rise up to surface and increase the manganese concentration near the surface. Manganese concentration and water temperature from the surface to depth of 20m by 5m have been time plotted and exploratory analyzed to show that the water turnover could be used instead of measuring manganese concentration to know the time point of water management. Two models for forecasting the time point of water turnover were proposed and compared as follow: The regression model of CR20, the consistency ratio of water temperature, between the surface and the depth of 20m on the lagged variables of CR20 and the first lag variable of max temperature. And, the Box-Jenkins model of CR20 as ARIMA (2, 1, 2).

The volume transport and turnover time of the Deukryang Bay, located at the southern area of Korea, were calculated based on the current meter(RCM-7,ACM 16M) data observed at the three gateways of the Bay in May and October of 1996. Dominant tidal current component was calculated through harmonic analysis from raw data to estimate influence tidal current and also residual current was measured by integrating observed data and then averaging on time. Maximum speed of current was about 100㎝/sec during the spring tide at the waterway between Kumdangdo and Kogumdo. The total water volume transports through three entrances of the bay in May and October were 3.9×10^-2 Sv, 3.4×10^-2 Sv(1Sv=10^6㎥s^-1) and turnover time were 0.97day, 1.12day, respectively. Semidiurnal tides were predominant (70∼85%). The water volume transports by residual currents were 2∼4% of total water volume transports. The average fraction of fresh water calculated by tidal prism method using salinity difference between inflow current and outflow current through three entrances in Deukryang Bay was about 0.06% of total volume and the flushing time of fresh water was estimated as 0.97day.