We develop a model to predict typhoons in Korea. We collect data for typhoons and classify those depending on the severity level. Following a Bayesian approach, we develop a model that explains the relationship between different levels of typhoons. Through the analysis of the model, we can predict the rate of typhoons, the probability of approaching Korean peninsular, and the probability of striking Korean peninsular. We show that the uncertainty for the occurrence of various types of typhoons reduces dramatically by adaptively updating model parameters as we acquire data.

We develop a model to predict traffic accidents in Korea. In contrast to the classical approach that mainly uses regression analysis, Bayesian approach is adopted. A dependent model that incorporates the data from different kinds of accidents is introduced. The rate of severe accident can be updated even with no data of the same kind. The data of minor accident that can be obtained frequently is efficiently used to predict the severe accident.

본 논문에서는 하부 안전 시스템의 개선이 전체 안전 시스템에 미치는 영향을 분석하기 위한 방법론을 개발하였다. 어느 하부 시스템의 안전성을 개선하느냐에 따라 전체 시스템의 안전성 증가는 서로 다르게 나타날 수도 있다. 본 연구에서는 베이지안 기법을 활용하여 사건가지와 상호연관도를 응용한 모형을 활용하였다. 또한 가지 파라메터의 확률 값 향상이 다음 번 사고까지의 시간을 어떻게 변화시키는지 연구하였다. 본 연구를 통해 우리가 관심을 갖고 있는 시스템 전체

We predict the earthquake rate in Korea following Bayesian approach. We make a model that can utilize the data to predict other levels of earthquake. An event tree model which is a frequently used graphical tool in describing accident initiation and escalation to more severe accident is transformed into an influence diagram model. Prior distributions for earthquake occurrence rate and probabilities to escalating to more severe earthquakes are assumed and likelihood of number of earthquake in a given period of time is assessed. And then posterior distributions are obtained based on observed data. We find that the minor level of earthquake is increasing while major level of earthquake is less likely.

We construct the procedure to predict safety accidents following Bayesian approach. We make a model that can utilize the data to predict other levels of accidents. An event tree model which is a frequently used graphical tool in describing accident initiation and escalation to more severe accident is transformed into an influence diagram model. Prior distributions for accident occurrence rate and probabilities to escalating to more severe accidents are assumed and likelihood of number of accidents in a given period of time is assessed. And then posterior distributions are obtained based on observed data. We also points out the advantages of the bayesian approach that estimates the whole distribution of accident rate over the classical point estimation.

  We use influence diagrams to describe event trees used in safety analyses of low-probability high-risk incidents. This paper shows how the branch parameters used in the event tree models can be updated by a bayesian method based on the observed counts o

As aging society makes rapid progress, various social problems arise. The drop of productive labor and the increase of welfare cost can be taken as examples. From this point of view, a use of aged labor is a matter of great Important to national productivity improvement. But, the participation rate of the aged in economical activity amounts to 49.8 percent and their unemployment rate does 2.1 percent. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the deterioration of skill and the lowering of adaption to new working environments due to aging. Since the aging effect is closely related to worker's productivity, it should be properly measured and analyzed. The coordination tester is used to find out activity limitations. Experimental results show that the expert skill of the workers can be improved through the effective of their experience. Therefore we can say that some operation is not influenced by aging.

RFID is a technique that plays an important role in identifying and tracking the movement of objects by inserting small chips in objects. It is somewhat similar to bar codes from the various points of applications, but is hopefully considered to lead to t

This paper deals with a batch processor model in which the batch processing times depend on the jobs assigned to the batch. Each job has a distinct processing time which is determined as not the exact value but the range from the lower limit to the upper,

사고 위험성올 고려한 예측 및 의사결정 모형을 구축한다. 시스템을 즉시 운행중지 할 것인지 혹은 계획된 일정 기간을 더 운행 한 후 다시 의사결정을 내릴 것인지를 판단하는 방법론에 대해 연구한다. 의사결정을 내라는데 있 어시 비용 및 위험에 대한 새로운 정보가 입수되는 대로 이를 반영한다. 예측 오형을 통해 분석된 결과들을 활용해 보다 나은 의사결정을 내리는 방법에 대해 연구한다.