장기간의 가뭄에 의한 피해를 최소화하기 위해서는 유역에 적합한 가뭄관리 대책의 수립과 함께 미래에 발생하게 될 가뭄을 미리 예측할 수 있는 기술이 구축되어야 한다. 또한 미래의 가뭄에 대한 합리적 대응 방안을 수립하기 위해서는 가뭄의 지속기간(duration)과 심도(severity)의 정량적인 예측이 선행되어야 한다. 본 연구에서는 수문 시계열의 예측에 가장 많이 이용되고 있는 대표적인 통계학적 기법인 인공신경망 모형(Artificial Neural Network Model)과 가뭄지수를 이용하여 남한지역의 서울, 대전, 대구, 광주 등의 4개 기상관측소를 선정하여 가뭄예측을 시도하였다. 가뭄 예측을 위하여 남한지역 내 선정한 기상관측소의 관측된 과거 강수량 자료를 이용하여 산정된 SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index)를 입력변수로 하여 다층 퍼셉트론(Multi Layer Perceptron) 인공신경망 모델에 적용하였으며, 매개변수 보정을 위한 학습기간으로 1976∼2000년과 2001∼2010년을 예측을 위한 검증기간으로 선정하여, 학습 및 예측을 시도하였다. 학습된 최적의 예측모형을 이용하여 서로 다른 선행예보시간(1∼6개월)을 갖고 SPI (3), SPI (6), SPI (12)별로 가뭄을 예측하였으며, 가뭄예측 결과, SPI (3)의 경우에는 1개월 선행예보에서만 좋은 결과를 나타내었으며, SPI (6)의 경우 1-3개월 후의 가뭄을 예측하는 경우에 비교적 관측자료와 잘 일치하는 결과를 나타내었다. SPI (12)의 경우에는 약 5개월 후까지의 가뭄예측에 양호한 결과를 나타내었다.

Heat transfer and flow characteristics in a pipe in which the rotating cutting tool for boring a underground pipe without digging were considered in this study. The amount of heat generation due to the friction between the rotating cutter and pipe wall, mixing flow of air and water injected to cool down are the two important factors to design the boring machine. Computational fluid dynamics analysis using the Eulerian mixture model and the standard k-ε turbulence model was used to analyze the complex phenomena in a pipe during the process. Results show that pipe wall temperature decreased with increasing the cooling water inlet velocity. It is also shown that pipe wall temperature was lowered when the cutter rotation speed was increased until 600 rpm. There was no further cooling effect over 600 rpm.

As the tideland reclamation is done on a large scale these days, construction work is active in the coastal areas. Facilities in the coastal areas must be built with the tide characteristics taken into consideration. Thus the tide characteristics affect the overall reclamation plan. The analysis of the tide data boils down to a harmonic analysis of the hourly changes of long-term tide data and extraction of unharmonic coefficients from the results. Since considerable amount of tide data for the West Coast are available, the existing data can be collected and can be used to obtain the temporal changes of the tide by being fitted into the tide prediction model. The goal of this thesis lies in assessing whether the mean sea level used in the field agrees with the analysis results from the long-term observation data obtained with their homogeneity guaranteed. To achieve this goal, the research was conducted as follows. First the present conditions of the observation stations, the land level standard, and the sea level standard were surveyed to derive a vertical standard. Then the causes for the changes in the mean sea level were analyzed to set up a time series model formula for representing them. To secure the homogeneity of the time series, each component was separated. Lastly the mean sea level used in the field was assessed based on the results obtained from the analysis of the time series.

The purpose of this study is to estimate the low-flow statistics at the mountainous watershed. The formulation for the estimation of the design low-flow statistics was obtained by means of a hydraulic approach applied to a simple conceptual model for a mountainous watershed. Three of the independent variables associated with the low-flow statistics is watershed area(A), average basin slope(S) and the base flow recession constant(K); Watershed area was measured from topographic maps and average basin slope is approximated in this study using Strahler's slope determining method. And base flow recession constant computed using Vogel and Kroll's method. Unfortunately, this method is usually unavailable at ungaged sites. In this study, recession constant at ungaged sites is estimated using graphical regression method used by Giese and Mason. The model for estimating low-flow statistics were applied to all 61 catchments in the Sumjin, Mankyung basin.

For the prediction of multi-site rainfall with radar data and ground meteorological data, a rainfall prediction model was proposed, which uses the neural network theory, a kind of artifical intelligence technique. The input layer of the prediction model was constructed with current ground meteorological data, their variation, moving vectors of rainfall field and digital terrain of the measuring site, and the output layer was constructed with the predicted rainfall up to 3 hours. In the application of the prediction model to the Pyungchang river basin, the learning results of neural network prediction model showed more improved results than the parameter estimation results of an existing physically based model. And the proposed model comparisonally well predicted the time distribution of rainfall.