국내 6개 주요도시에서 조사된 어패류 오염도 현황을 토대로 우리나라 사람들의 어패류 섭취를 통한 유기주석화합물 인체노출량을 예측하고, 이에 따른 위해도를 추계하였다. 본 연구결과를 살펴보면 갈치의 경우, 성인이 식품수급표에서 제시하는 일일섭취량 3.02g/day를 평생 섭취한다는 노출시나리오하에 평균일일노출량은 확률분포로 나타냈을 때 그 중간값이 6.48$\times$ $10^{-7}$ mg/kg/day, 상한치 95th percentile값이 8.78$\times$$10^{-7}$ mg/kg/day로 나타났음을 알 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 비발암독성영향을 평가하기 위하여 BMD$_{10}$ 을 활용한 참고치(Reference dose)를 예측하였다. 이 때 BMD$_{10}$은 10% 비교변화를 BMR으로 하였을때 해당하는 용량의 95% 하한치이다. 본 연구에서 활용한 BMD는 digestion에 의한 근육내의 IgE titer, T.spiraris larvae와 조직학에 의한 근육내 T.spiraris larvae에 근거하여 예측된 것으로 0.03 mg/kg/day이다. 참고치는 BMD$_{10}$ 0.03 mg/kg/day에 불확실성 계수 100을 고려한 값으로 0.003 mg/kg/day이며, 이 때 활용한 불확실성계수는 실험동물에서 인체로의 외삽과정에서 고려한 계수 10과 인구집단 내 민감그룹 고려를 위한 계수 10을 적용한 것이다. 각 어패류의 위험지수(50th percentile)를 살펴보면 고등어에서 2.04$\times$ $10^{-2}$으로 가장 높게 나타났으며, 소라에서 2.70$\times$ $10^{-5}$으로 가장 낮은 값을 나타냈다.

Recently, it is continuously rising to concern about the health risk being induced by microorganisms in food such as Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Listeria monocytogenes. Various organizations and regulatory agencies including U.S.EPA, U.S.DA and FAO/WHO are preparing the methodology building to apply microbial quantitative risk assessment to risk-based food safety program. Microbial risks are primarily the result of single exposure and its health impacts are immediate and serious. Therefore, the methodology of risk assessment differs from that of chemical risk assessment. Microbial quantitative risk assessment consists of four steps; hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response assessment and risk characterization. Hazard identification is accomplished by observing and defining the types of adverse health effects in humans associated with exposure to foodborne agents. Epidemiological evidence which links the various disease with the particular exposure route is an important component of this identification. Exposure assessment includes the quantification of microbial exposure regarding the dynamics of microbial growth in food processing, transport, packaging and specific time-temperature conditions at various points from animal production to consumption. Dose-response assessment is the process characterizing dose-response correlation between microbial exposure and disease incidence. Unlike chemical carcinogens, the dose-response assessment for microbial pathogens has not focused on animal models for extrapolation to humans. Risk characterization links the exposure assessment and dose-response assessment and involve uncertainty analysis. The methodology of microbial dose-response assessment is classified as nonthreshold and threshold approach. The nonthreshold model have assumption that one organism is capable of producing an infection if it arrives at an appropriate site and organism have independence. Recently, the Exponential, Beta-poission, Gompertz, and Gamma-weibull models are using as nonthreshold model. The Log-normal and Log-logistic models are using as threshold model. The threshold has the assumption that a toxicant is produce by interaction of organisms. In this study, it was reviewed detailed process including risk value using model parameter and microbial exposure dose. Also this study suggested model application methodology in field of exposure assessment using assumed food microbial data(NaCl, water activity, temperature, pH, etc.) and the commercially used Food MicroModel^ⓡ. We recognized that human volunteer data to the healthy man are preferred rather than epidemiological data for obtaining exact dose-response data. But, the foreign agencies are studying the characterization of correlation between human and animal. For the comparison of differences to the population sensitivity; it must be executed domestic study such as the establishment of dose-response data to the Korean volunteer by each microbial and microbial exposure assessment in food.