Safeguards systems and measures are determined through diversion scenario analysis based on the facility design information submitted to the IAEA when a new nuclear facility is introduced. While the concept of safeguards-by-design (SBD), which considers the safeguards from the design phase for a facility operator to minimize unplanned changes or disruption to facility operations as well as for the IAEA to increase the efficiency and effectiveness in safeguards implementation, has been emphasized for more than a decade, there is no practical tool or guidance on how to apply it. In this study, we develop a diversion path analysis tool and introduce how to apply SBD using it. A diversion path analysis tool was developed based on the elements that constitute diversion and the algorithm generated based on the initial information of facility and nuclear material flow. The results of utilizing the analysis tool depending on a different level of facility information and the safeguards set-ups were compared through examples. Taking a typical light water reactor as an example, the test analyzed the automatic generation of dedicated routes, configuration of safeguards measures, and diversion path analysis. Through this, the application and limitations of the analysis tool are discussed, and ideas for utilization according to the SBD concept and necessary regulatory guidance are proposed. The results of this study are expected to be directly utilized to domestic nuclear control during the regulation process for a construction of new nuclear power systems, and furthermore, to enhance national credibility in the engagement with the IAEA for implementation of safeguards.

To evaluate the safeguards system or performance in a facility, it is crucial to analyze the diversion path for nuclear materials. However, diversion paths can range from the extremely simplified to the complicated depending on the level of knowledge and the specific person conducting the analysis. This study developed the diversion path analysis tools using an event tree and fault tree method to generating diversion paths systematically. The essential components of the diversion path were reviewed, and a logical flow was developed for systematically creating the diversion path. An algorithm was created based on the facility design components and logical flow, as well as the initial information of the nuclear materials and material flows. The event tree and fault tree analysis tools were used to test the path generation algorithm. The usage and limitations of these two logic methods are discussed, and ideas to incorporate the logic algorithm into practical program tools are suggested. The tests were analyzed on a typical light water reactor as an example, including automatic generation of dedicated pathways, configuration of safeguards measures, and analyzing paths with strategies for avoiding safeguard systems. The results led to the development of a draft pathway analyzer program that can be applied to general nuclear systems. The results of this study will be used to develop a program module that can systematically generate diversion paths using the event tree and fault tree method. It can help to guide and provide practical tools for implementing SBD.

The measurement activities to evaluate material balance of nuclear material are usually performed by operator. It is because that the IAEA does not have enough manpower to carry out nuclear measurement accountancy of all nuclear materials in the world. Therefore, the IAEA should consider scenarios which facility operator tries to divert nuclear material for misuse by distorting measurement record. It is required to verify the operator’s measurement data whether it is normal or not. IAEA measures inventory items using their own equipment which is independent of facility operator equipment for verification. Since all inventory lists cannot be verified due to limited resources, the number of items to be verified is determined through statistical method which is called as sample size calculation. They measure for the selected items using their own equipment and compares with operator’s record. The IAEA determines sample size by comprehensively considering targeted diverted nuclear material amount and targeted non-detection probability and performance of measurement equipment. In general, the targeted diverted nuclear material amount is considered significant quantity (plutonium: 8 kg, uranium-235: 75 kg). If the targeted non-detection probability or the performance of the verification equipment is low, the sample size increases, and on the contrary, in the case of high non-detection probability or good performance of verification equipment, even a small sample size is satisfied. It cannot be determined from a single sample size calculation because there are so many sample size combinations for each verification equipment and there are many diversion scenarios to be considered. So, IAEA estimates initial sample size based on statistical method to reduce calculation load. And then they calculate non-detection probability for a combination of initial sample size. Through the iteration calculation, the sample size that satisfies the closest to the target value is derived. The sample size calculation code has been developed to review IAEA’s calculation method. The main difference is that IAEA calculates sample size based on approximate equation, while in this study, sample size is calculated by exact equation. The benchmarking study was performed on reference materials. The data obtained by the code show similar results to the reference materials within an acceptable range. The calculation method developed in this study will be applied to support IAEA and domestic inspection activities in uranium fuel fabrication facility.