The domestic Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor (PWHR) nuclear power plant, Wolsong Unit 1, was permanently shut down on December 24, 2019. However, research on decommissioning has mainly focused on Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs), with a notable absence of both domestic and international experience in the decommissioning of PHWRs. If proper business management such as radiation safety and waste is not performed, it can lead to increased business risks and costs in decommissioning. Therefore, the assessment of waste volume and cost, which provide fundamental data for the nuclear decommissioning process, is a crucial technical requirement before initiating the actual decommissioning of Wolsong Unit 1. Decommissioning radiation-contaminated structures and facilities presents significant challenges due to high radiation levels, making it difficult for workers to access these areas. Therefore, technology development should precede decommissioning process assessments and safety evaluations, facilitating the derivation of optimal decommissioning procedures and ensuring worker safety while enhancing the efficiency of decommissioning operations. In this study, we have developed a program to estimate decommissioning waste amounts for PHWRs, building upon prior research on PWR decommissioning projects while accounting for the specific design characteristics of PHWRs. To evaluate the amount of radioactive waste generated during decommissioning, we considered the characteristics of radioactive waste, disposal methods, packaging container specifications, and the criteria for the transfer of radioactive waste to disposal operators. Based on the derived algorithm, we conducted a detailed design and implemented the program. The proposed program is based on 3D modeling of the decommissioning components and the calculation of the Work Difficulty Factor (WDF), which is used to determine the time weighting factors for each task. Program users can select the cutting and packaging conditions for decommissioning components, estimate waste amount based on the chosen decommissioning method, and calculate costs using time weighting factors. It can be applied not only to PHWRs, but also to PWRs and non-nuclear fields, providing a flexible tool for optimizing decommissioning process.

With the aging of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in 37 countries around the world, 207 out of 437 NPPs have been permanently shutdown as of August 2022 according to the IAEA. In Korea, the decommissioning of NPPs is emerging as a challenge due to the permanent shutdown of Kori Unit 1 and Wolsong Unit 1. However, there are no cases of decommissioning activities for Heavy Water Reactor (HWR) such as Wolsong Unit 1 although most of the decommissioning technologies for Light Water Reactor (LWR) such as Kori Unit 1 have been developed and there are cases of overseas decommissioning activities. This study shows the development of a decommissioning waste amount/cost/process linkage program for decommissioning Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor (PHWR), i.e. CANDU NPPs. The proposed program is an integrated management program that can derive optimal processes from an economic and safety perspective when decommissioning PHWR based on 3D modeling of the structures and digital mock-up system that links the characteristic data of PHWR, equipment and construction methods. This program can be used to simulate the nuclear decommissioning activities in a virtual space in three dimensions, and to evaluate the decommissioning operation characteristics, waste amount, cost, and exposure dose to worker. In order to verify the results, our methods for calculating optimal decommissioning quantity, which are closely related to radiological impact on workers and cost reduction during decommissioning, were compared with the methods of the foreign specialized institution (NAGRA). The optimal decommissioning quantity can be calculated by classifying the radioactivity level through MCNP modeling of waste, investigating domestic disposal containers, and selecting cutting sizes, so that costs can be reduced according to the final disposal waste reduction. As the target waste to be decommissioning for comparative study with NAGRA, the calandria in PHWR was modeled using MCNP. For packaging waste container, NAGRA selected three (P2A, P3, MOSAIK), and we selected two (P2A, P3) and compared them. It is intended to develop an integrated management program to derive the optimal process for decommissioning PHWR by linking the optimal decommissioning quantity calculation methodology with the detailed studies on exposure dose to worker, decommissioning order, difficulty of work, and cost evaluation. As a result, it is considered that it can be used not only for PHWR but also for other types of NPPs decommissioning in the future to derive optimal results such as worker safety and cost reduction.

신뢰성 해석을 수행할 때 정보부족으로 인해 발생하는 인식론적 불확실성(epistemic uncertainty)은 고유의 변동성에 의해 존재하는 내재적 불확실성(aleatory uncertainty)보다 더 중요하게 다뤄야 한다. 그러나 그동안 개발된 확률이론은 주로 내재적 불확실성을 모델링하는데 이용된 반면, 인식론적 불확실성의 모델링에 대해서는 아직 확실한 접근법이 없었다. 최근 이를 위해 probability theory를 포함한 여러 접근법들이 제시되고 있지만 이들은 서로 다른 통계적 이론들을 바탕으로 도출되었기 때문에, 각 방법들의 결과들을 이해하는데 어려움이 있었다. 본 연구에서는 고장 확률을 계산하는 문제를 가지고 이러한 방법들이 인식론적 불확실성을 어떻게 다루는지를 비교, 분석하였다. 이를 위해 probability method, combined distribution method, interval analysis method 그리고 evidence theory를 대상으로 신뢰도 분석문제에 대해 각 방법들의 특징들을 비교하였으며, 그 결과는 다음과 같다. 입력변수의 확률분포 형태를 알 수 있다면 probability method가 가장 우수하나, 이를 전혀 모르면 interval method를 사용해야 한다. 그러나 계산비용 면에서는 두 방법이 유사하므로 결국 입력변수의 확률특성 정보가 얼마나 있느냐에 따라 방법을 선택한다. Combined distribution method는 failure probability의 평균만 제공하므로 사용하지 않는 것이 좋다. 다만 이 방법은 계산비용이 매우 적게 드는 장점이 있다. Evidence theory는 probability와 interval 방법의 중간에 해당하며, 구간별 probability assignment를 세분화 할수록 probability결과에 접근한다. 이 방법은 계산비용이 가장 높은 것이 문제이다.