This study developed an analytical methodology for the mechanical integrity of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) cladding tubes under external pinch loads during transportation, with reference to the failure mode specified in the relevant guidelines. Special consideration was given to the degraded characteristics of SNF during dry storage, including oxide and hydride contents and orientations. The developed framework reflected a composite cladding model of elastic and plastic analysis approaches and correlation equations related to the mechanical parameters. The established models were employed for modeling the finite elements by coding their physical behaviors. A mechanical integrity evaluation of 14 × 14 PWR SNF was performed using this system. To ensure that the damage criteria met the applicable legal requirements, stress-strain analysis results were separated into elastic and plastic regions with the concept of strain energy, considering both normal and hypothetical accident conditions. Probabilistic procedures using Monte Carlo simulations and reliability evaluations were included. The evaluation results showed no probability of damage under the normal conditions, whereas there were small but considerably low probabilities under accident conditions. These results indicate that the proposed approach is a reliable predictor of SNF mechanical integrity.