This study aims to improve the interpretability and transparency of forecasting results by applying an explainable AI technique to corporate default prediction models. In particular, the research addresses the challenges of data imbalance and the economic cost asymmetry of forecast errors. To tackle these issues, predictive performance was analyzed using the SMOTE-ENN imbalance sampling technique and a cost-sensitive learning approach. The main findings of the study are as follows. First, the four machine learning models used in this study (Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, and CatBoost) produced significantly different evaluation results depending on the degree of asymmetry in forecast error costs between imbalance classes and the performance metrics applied. Second, XGBoost and CatBoost showed good predictive performance when considering variations in prediction cost asymmetry and diverse evaluation metrics. In particular, XGBoost showed the smallest gap between the actual default rate and the default judgment rate, highlighting its robustness in handling class imbalance and prediction cost asymmetry. Third, SHAP analysis revealed that total assets, net income to total assets, operating income to total assets, financial liability to total assets, and the retained earnings ratio were the most influential factors in predicting defaults. The significance of this study lies in its comprehensive evaluation of predictive performance of various ML models under class imbalance and cost asymmetry in forecast errors. Additionally, it demonstrates how explainable AI techniques can enhance the transparency and reliability of corporate default prediction models.

This study investigates using Conditional Tabular Generative Adversarial Networks (CT-GAN) to generate synthetic data for turnover prediction in large employment datasets. The effectiveness of CT-GAN is compared with Adaptive Synthetic Sampling (ADASYN), Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE), and Random Oversampling (ROS) using Logistic Regression (LR), Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Learning Machines (ELM), evaluated with AUC and F1-scores. Results show that GAN-based techniques, especially CT-GAN, outperform traditional methods in addressing data imbalance, highlighting the need for advanced oversampling methods to improve classification accuracy in imbalanced datasets.

Abstract Handling imbalanced datasets in binary classification, especially in employment big data, is challenging. Traditional methods like oversampling and undersampling have limitations. This paper integrates TabNet and Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) to address class imbalance. The generator creates synthetic samples for the minority class, and the discriminator, using TabNet, ensures authenticity. Evaluations on benchmark datasets show significant improvements in accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score for the minority class, outperforming traditional methods. This integration offers a robust solution for imbalanced datasets in employment big data, leading to fairer and more effective predictive models.

The injection molding process is a process in which thermoplastic resin is heated and made into a fluid state, injected under pressure into the cavity of a mold, and then cooled in the mold to produce a product identical to the shape of the cavity of the mold. It is a process that enables mass production and complex shapes, and various factors such as resin temperature, mold temperature, injection speed, and pressure affect product quality. In the data collected at the manufacturing site, there is a lot of data related to good products, but there is little data related to defective products, resulting in serious data imbalance. In order to efficiently solve this data imbalance, undersampling, oversampling, and composite sampling are usally applied. In this study, oversampling techniques such as random oversampling (ROS), minority class oversampling (SMOTE), ADASYN(Adaptive Synthetic Sampling), etc., which amplify data of the minority class by the majority class, and complex sampling using both undersampling and oversampling, are applied. For composite sampling, SMOTE+ENN and SMOTE+Tomek were used. Artificial neural network techniques is used to predict product quality. Especially, MLP and RNN are applied as artificial neural network techniques, and optimization of various parameters for MLP and RNN is required. In this study, we proposed an SA technique that optimizes the choice of the sampling method, the ratio of minority classes for sampling method, the batch size and the number of hidden layer units for parameters of MLP and RNN. The existing sampling methods and the proposed SA method were compared using accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 Score to prove the superiority of the proposed method.

사출성형공정은 열가소성 수지를 가열하여 유동상태로 만들어 금형의 공동부에 가압 주입한 후에 금형 내에서 냉각시키는 공정으로, 금형의 공동모양과 동일한 제품을 만드는 방법이다. 대량생산이 가능하고, 복잡한 모양이 가능한 공정으로, 수지온도, 금형온도, 사출속도, 압력 등 다양한 요소들이 제품의 품질에 영향을 미친다. 제조현장에서 수집되는 데이터는 양품과 관련된 데이터는 많은 반면, 불량품과 관련된 데이터는 적어서 데이터불균형이 심각하다. 이러한 데이터불균형을 효율적으로 해결하기 위하여 언더샘플링, 오버샘플링, 복합샘플링 등이 적용되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 랜덤오버샘플링(ROS), 소수 클래스 오버 샘플링(SMOTE), ADASTN 등의 소수클래스의 데이터를 다수클래스만큼 증폭시키는 오버샘플링 기법을 활용하고, 데이터마이닝 기법을 활용하여 품질예측을 하고자 한다.

Recently, not only traditional statistical techniques but also machine learning algorithms have been used to make more accurate bankruptcy predictions. But the insolvency rate of companies dealing with financial institutions is very low, resulting in a data imbalance problem. In particular, since data imbalance negatively affects the performance of artificial intelligence models, it is necessary to first perform the data imbalance process. In additional, as artificial intelligence algorithms are advanced for precise decision-making, regulatory pressure related to securing transparency of Artificial Intelligence models is gradually increasing, such as mandating the installation of explanation functions for Artificial Intelligence models. Therefore, this study aims to present guidelines for eXplainable Artificial Intelligence-based corporate bankruptcy prediction methodology applying SMOTE techniques and LIME algorithms to solve a data imbalance problem and model transparency problem in predicting corporate bankruptcy. The implications of this study are as follows. First, it was confirmed that SMOTE can effectively solve the data imbalance issue, a problem that can be easily overlooked in predicting corporate bankruptcy. Second, through the LIME algorithm, the basis for predicting bankruptcy of the machine learning model was visualized, and derive improvement priorities of financial variables that increase the possibility of bankruptcy of companies. Third, the scope of application of the algorithm in future research was expanded by confirming the possibility of using SMOTE and LIME through case application.