Efforts for nuclear non-proliferation have continued since the development of nuclear weapons and the conclusion of the NPT Treaty. Nuclear proliferation requires materials, facilities, and human resources to make nuclear weapons, and it takes a medium to long-term time. There are many restrictions in the current system to obtain nuclear materials and facilities, so it is often done through illegal means, black markets, or confidential transactions. Methods have been developed to evaluate the nuclear non-proliferation regime to strengthen the non-proliferation and solve the problems. The IAEA and the United States DOE initiated the proliferation resistance evaluation in 1980. The DOE conducted the assessment in three main evaluation categories: materials, technical characteristics of facilities, and institutional barriers. In another nuclear non-proliferation evaluation study, some researchers evaluated three main types: current capacity, political situation, and international situation. Detailed indicators include economic capacity, industrial capacity, nuclear capacity, leader’s intentions, political structure, competitive relations, alliances, and international norms. Most of these evaluations are based on the situation at the time of assessment at the national level. Historical examples of nuclear proliferation are rare, and verification is also challenging. The Bayesian probability is widely used when the data is small, experiments are impossible, and the causal relationship is unclear. A Bayesian network is a combination of Bayesian probability and graphics. It is used throughout the industry because it can easily derive results according to causal relationships and weights of various variables, evaluate the risk for decision-making, and obtain changed results through data updates. In particular, to evaluate the proliferation of nuclear weapons, Freeman developed the Freeman network in 2008 and the Freeman-Mella network in 2014. Freeman explained in detail only the process of deriving variables, correlations, and probabilities of factors related to factors such as motivation, intention, and resources. It isn’t easy to view as an objective result value because it does not describe the academic background for path selection, motivation list, intention, and resource variable selection. However, the research was meaningful because he first used the Bayesian network for nuclear proliferation. Although some studies have been done at the macro level, there is no case of applying it in export controls, which is the beginning of the actual spread. Also, there is no quantitative value for factors for risk assessment. There is little data, and verification of causality is difficult, so if the Bayesian network is applied to export control and applied to actual implementation, it will help make decisions such as export license or export denial.

In the maritime industry, most perceptions, frameworks and methodologies of dealing with hazards are for their risk assessment rather than their risk management. This tendency discloses the reality that within the maritime sectors in areas like shipping, logistics, oil and gas there is a lack of coherent Quantitative Risk Management (QRM) methodology from which to understand the risk-based decisions especially for appropriate risk management such as in seaports’ terminals. Therefore, in this paper initially, during priority assessment of the identified hazards, Fuzzy Set Theory was applied to handle imprecision of the uncertain risk-based statistics to get an accurate result. In the next stage, Fuzzy Fault Tree and Fuzzy Event Tree methods were used to achieve the sequence of quantitative risk analysis. In the final step, a Fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution tool was used for the implementation of the mitigation phase to complete and conclude the proposed QRM cycle.

Purpose - In the digital era, technology advancement enables goods and services to be produced more efficiently but also create economy risk in the global economy including Indonesia. Previous studies stated that the risk can be mitigated through export diversification. This study investigates strategy to expand the markets for existing products and explore the potential market. Research design, data, and methodology - The criteria was followed using a review and considerations combination through the Focus Group Discussion (FGD) to determine the priority product in trading house of Indonesia. This study implemented market share to explore those products’ markets and compare it to other ASEAN countries. Results - The Indonesian potential products are T-shirts, singlets and other vests of textile materials, knitted or crocheted (excluding cotton); food preparations; medicaments consisting of mixed or unmixed products for therapeutic or prophylactic purposes; soap in the form of flakes, granules, powder, paste or in aqueous solution; and cocoa powder, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter. The market analysis also showed that Indonesia still had not optimally accessed yet the largest market in the world for each product. Conclusions - The government should focus more on increasing the competitiveness of those products, particularly in those global marketplaces.

우리나라 정부는 글로벌 보안 추세와 전쟁 및 테러리즘에 대처하기 위해 컨테이너 보안조치(CSI, 24시간 규칙 포함), 종합인증 우수 업체(AEO) 등 다양한 보안 제도 및 보안 조치를 도입했다. 하지만 수출입 과정의 다양한 구성원들은 CSI, 24시간 규칙, AEO의 목적과 기능에 여전히 부정적이다. 이것은 보안 리스크를 수출입 과정의 장애나 방해 요인으로 여기고 있기 때문이다. 따라서 본 연구의 목적은 이러한 리스 크를 규명, 측정, 평가하고 적절한 관리 방안을 제시함에 있다. 이를 위한 리스크규명과 리스크관리에 따른 성과 측정을 위해 선행연구 및 현장 조사를 바탕으로 설문조사를 진행했다. 설문조사를 통해 대상 리스크를 상대적인 값을 구분하여 Key Risk, Major Risk, Minor Risk로 나눌 수 있었으며 각 리스크를 대상으로 분산분석을 실시하여 집단별 관리정도의 차이를 알아낼 수 있었다. 마지막으로 회귀분석을 통해 리스크관리 정 도별 물류성과 검증을 실시하여 CSI 리스크관리가 물류 재무적 성과에 유의미한 영향을 미치며, CSI 리스크관리와 AEO 인증 리스크관리는 물 류 서비스 성과에 유의미한 영향을 미치는 것을 알아낼 수 있었다.

In this study, AHP analysis was conducted through a survey that was organized by 9 job categories. The results show that sustainable operation risks have the highest priority level among all criteria with management interest having the highest priority level within sustainable operation risks related attributes. The most important risk attributes among stakeholder risks appeared to be asset security and cargo and conveyance security, with education and training being the most important among regulatory risks. Effective management and response to the risks from export controls on strategic trade require an understanding of supply chain security and compliance programs, effective training programs, investments for development of security systems that meet international standards. In addition, the government needs to focus on developing professionals and providing support for companies with compliance programs, working closely with businesses.