Advanced countries in the field of nuclear research and technology are currently examining the feasibility of deep geological disposal as the most appropriate method for the permanent management of high-level radioactive waste, with no intention of future retrieval. Deep geological disposal involves the placement of such waste deep underground within a stable geological formation, ensuring its permanent isolation from the human environment. To guarantee the enduring isolation and retardation of radionuclides with half-lives spanning tens of thousands to millions of years from the broader ecosystem, it is imperative to comprehend the long-term evolution of deep disposal systems, especially the role of natural barriers. These natural barriers, typically consisting of bedrock, encase the repository and undergo long-term evolutions due to tectonic movements and climate variations. For the effective disposal of high-level radioactive waste, a thorough assessment of the site’s long-term geological stability is essential. This necessitates a comprehensive understanding of its tectonic evolution and development characteristics, including susceptibility to seismic and magmatic events like earthquakes and intrusions. Furthermore, a detailed analysis of alterations in the hydrogeological and geochemical environment resulting from tectonic movements over extended time frames is required to assess the potential for the migration of radionuclides. In this paper, we have examined international evaluation methodologies employed to elucidate the predictive long-term evolution of natural barriers within disposal systems. We have extracted relevant methods from international case studies and applied a preliminary scenario illustrating the long-term evolution of the geological environment at the KURT (KAERI Underground Research Tunnel) site. Nevertheless, unlike international instances, the scarcity of quantitative data limits the depth of our interpretation. To present a dependable scenario in the future, it is imperative to develop predictive technologies aimed at comprehensively studying the geological evolution processes in the Korean peninsula, particularly within the context of radioactive waste disposal.

With the importance of permanent disposal of high-level radioactive waste (HLW) generated in Korea, the deep geological disposal system based on the KBS-3 type is being developed. Since the deep geological repository must provide the long-term isolation of HLW from the surface environment and normal habitats for humans, plants, and animals, it is essential to assess the longterm performance of the disposal facility considering thermal-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical (TH- M-C) evolution. Decay heat dissipated from HLW contained in the canister causes an increase in temperature in the adjacent area. The requirement for the maximum temperature is established in consideration of the possibility of bentonite degradation. Therefore, when designing the repository, the temperature in the region of interest should be identified in detail through the thermal evolution assessment to ensure that the design requirement is satisfied. In the thermal evolution analysis, it is needed to evaluate the temperature distribution over the entire area of the disposal panel to consider the heat generated from both a single canister and adjacent canisters. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes are widely used for detailed temperature analysis but are limited to simulating a wide range. Accordingly, in this study, we developed an analytical solution-based program for efficiently calculating the temperature distribution throughout the deposition panel, which is based on threedimensional heat conduction equations. The code developed can assess the temperature distribution of engineered and natural barrier systems. Principal parameters to be inputted are as follows: (a) geometry of the panel (e.g. width, length, height, spacing between canisters), (b) geometry of the canister (e.g. diameter, height), (c) thermal properties of bentonite and host-rock, (d) initial conditions (e.g. residual heat, temperature), and (e) time information (e.g. canister emplacement rate, time-interval, period). Through the calculation for the conceptual problem of a deposition panel capable of accommodating 900 (i.e. 30×30) canisters, it was confirmed that the program can adequately predict when and where the maximum temperature will occur. It is expected that the overall temperature distribution within the panel can be obtained by the evaluation of the entire region using this program reflecting the detailed design of the repository to be developed in the future. In addition, the thermal evolution analysis considering the influence of other canisters can be performed by applying the results as boundary conditions in the CFD analysis.

To prevent the release of radionuclides into the biosphere, disposal facilities for radioactive waste should be located to provide isolation from the accessible biosphere for tens of thousands to a million years after closure. During the period of interest, the constantly evolving natural environment and possible geological events of the site can cause disturbances to the containment function of the repository. Thus, for the long-term safety assessment of the repository, the possible long-term change of natural barrier should be considered. Due to the characteristics of radionuclides that transport mainly through the groundwater, understanding the long-term evolution of groundwater flow and geochemical properties is essential to assess the long-term changes in the natural barrier performance. The changes in characteristics of natural rocks and geological structures are one of the main factors that determine the hydrological and geochemical characteristics of the deep underground. In this study, we plan to develop a methodology to estimate these future geological evolutions in order to assess the possibility of hazardous events of the site that can affect hydrological or geochemical properties over the period of interest, and also in order to verify the change in the geological environment is within the safe performance range even after the period of interest. However, it is very unreliable to predict future changes in the natural environment because it is very heterogeneous, complex, and difficult to observe directly. For the preliminary study of the project, we reviewed cases of future evolution prediction researches with regard to the geological environment of disposal site and methods they applied to reduce the uncertainty of the prediction. The results will be used to establish basic data for future studies on the long-term evolution of hydraulic-mechanics performance of natural barrier and long-term evolution of geochemical performance around KURT site. In addition, it can contribute to construct long-term evolution scenario of the geological environment around future URL site.

The timescale for the post-closure safety assessment of a deep geological repository ranges from ten thousand to a million year. In such a long period of time, the biosphere inevitably undergoes changes. Therefore, the long-term evolution of a biosphere is recognized as an important issue in the post-closure safety assessment of a deep geological repository for spent fuels. In this study, we reviewed the approaches to address the long-term evolution of a biosphere. The major drivers of longterm evolution of a biosphere are the climate change and the resulting landscape development. They can affect the hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical characteristics of a biosphere, and then the radionuclide migration through the biosphere followed by the exposure doses for the critical groups. In addition, human activities and the social developments can affect the climate change resulting in the long-term evolution of a biosphere. To make a biosphere assessment, the long-term evolution scenarios for the biosphere should be formulated considering these climate change, landscape development, and human activities. In addition, features, events, and processes (FEPs) that affect the long-term evolution of a biosphere should be used. According to the Safety Case reports of Finland, the major long-term evolution scenario drivers of a biosphere are local sea-level change due to climate change and land use related to crop type, irrigation procedures, livestock, forest management, construction of a well, and demographics. The climate change causing the local sea-level change can be simulated using various earth system models such as CLIMBER-2, MPI/UW, and UVic and an icesheet model such as SICOPOLIS. The review results of this study and FEPs related to the climate change, the landscape development, and human activities will be used to formulate long-term evolution scenarios for the safety assessment of a deep geological repository for spent fuels.

Deep geological disposal with multiple barriers composed of engineered and natural barriers has been considered as the most suitable disposal method for high level nuclear wastes. In terms of the geological evaluation factors, brittle structures such as fractures and faults should be characterized around the repository site, because radionuclides transfer mainly with groundwater in the subsurface and groundwater flows through discontinuous brittle structures. The geological survey for the characterization of deep geological repository sites is widely conducted by narrowing the survey area from regional scale down to local scale, which could be divided into three steps: 1) using remote sense or geophysical survey, 2) trench and drill core logging including field survey based on the first step, 3) detailed geological survey in the tunnel. In this study, we analyzed the distribution of geological structures to derive the history of brittle deformation in and around the KURT (KAERI Underground Research Tunnel) site located in the KAERI (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute). The bedrock of the KURT site is mainly consist of Jurassic two-mica granite, which is extensively intruded by andesitic dikes of Cretaceous with N-S to NE-SW strikes. The two-mica granite in the study area was deformed in a ductile deformation environment and has been overprinted by major geological structures such as faults, dikes, veins, and joints. From this study, we identified 8 brittle deformation events based on the cross-cutting relationship among the geological structures, which are obtained from the analyses in and around the KURT. In order to evaluate the reactivation and fluid flow potential of brittle structures, it is essential to determine the characteristics and ages of the brittle structures and the composed rocks around the site.

Disposal facilities for radioactive waste shall be sited to provide isolation from the accessible biosphere. The features shall aim to provide this isolation for tens of thousands to a million years after closure. For the safety assessments of repository, the long-term natural evolution and possible events of the site, that can cause disturbances to the facility over the period of interest, should be considered. Geological development processes that the site have been experienced can contribute to understanding and descripting the present-day conditions. Moreover, knowledge of the past is necessary to predict the future evolution of the site. With regard to disposal site, understanding past geological evolution history allows to access the possibility of hazardous events of the site that can cause disturbances to the facility over the period of interest, and to verify the change in the geological environment is within the safe performance range even after the period of interest. In addition, certain parameters that change with the geological evolution can affect the hydrological and geochemical characteristics which are essential to disposal performance. There are various factors in the evolution of the geological environment, but not all are related to disposal safety. The objective of this research is to develop a geological reconstruction method considering factors that should be derived preferentially for the geological characteristics of the disposal site and the evaluation of the long-term safety. As a preliminary study on this, we investigated case studies related to geological reconstruction of overseas disposal research institutes, and reviewed which factors are suitable for the domestic granitoid distribution environment. It is expected that systematic and consistent results will be possible in the future through this methodology.