The safety of deep geological disposal systems has to be ensured to guarantee the isolation of radionuclides from human and related environments for over a million years. Over such a long timeframe, disposal systems can be influenced by climate change, leading to significant long-term impacts on the hydrogeological condition, including changes in temperature, precipitation and sea levels. These changes can affect groundwater flow, alter geochemical conditions, and directly/ indirectly impact the stability of the repository. Hence, it is essential to conduct a safety assessment that considers the long-term evolution induced by climate change. In this context, the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) is developing the Adaptive Process-based total system performance assessment framework for a geological disposal system (APro). Currently, numerical modules for APro are under development to account for the longterm evolution that can influence groundwater flow and radionuclide transport in the far-field of the disposal system. This study focuses on the development of two numerical modules designed to model permafrost formation and buoyance force due to relative density changes. Permafrost is defined as a ground in which temperature remains below zero-isotherm (0°C) continuously for more than two consecutive years. In regions where permafrost forms, the relative permeability of porous media is significantly reduced. The changes in permeability due to permafrost formation are modelled by calculating the unfrozen fluid content within a porous medium. Meanwhile, buoyancy force can occur when there is a difference in density at the boundary of two distinct water groups, such as seawater (salt water) and freshwater. Sea level change associated with climate change can alter the boundary between seawater and freshwater, resulting in changes in groundwater flow. The buoyancy force due to relative density is modelled by adjusting concentration boundary conditions. Using the developed numerical modules, we evaluated the long-term evolution’s effects by analyzing radionuclide transport in the far-field of the disposal system. Incorporating permafrost and buoyancy force modelling into the APro framework will contribute valuable insights into the complex interactions between geological and climatic factors, enhancing our ability to ensure the secure isolation of radionuclides for extended periods.

The post-closure safety assessment of a repository is typically conducted over an extensive timescale from ten thousand to a million years. Considering that biosphere ecosystems may undergo significant changes over such lengthy periods, it is essential to incorporate the long-term evolution of the biosphere into the safety assessment. Climate change and landscape development are identified as critical drivers with the potential to impact the hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical characteristics of the biosphere. These changes can subsequently alter the migration patterns of radionuclides through the biosphere and influence human exposure doses. Therefore, this study formulates scenarios within the context of long-term biosphere evolution. We examine biosphere assessment processes employed in other countries and conduct a comparative study on scenario conditions. For example, biosphere assessment in Finland has identified sea-level changes and land-use alterations as significant factors in the long-term evolution of the biosphere. These factors are linked to Features, Events, and Processes (FEPs) associated with climate change and human activities. Sea-level changes are related to FEPs regarding climate change, land uplift, and shoreline displacement, while land-use changes are based on human activity-related FEPs (e.g., crop type, livestock and forest management, well construction, and demographics). Based on the literature review, this study has configured long-term evolution scenarios for the safety assessment of a deep geological repository for spent fuels.

Advanced countries in the field of nuclear research and technology are currently examining the feasibility of deep geological disposal as the most appropriate method for the permanent management of high-level radioactive waste, with no intention of future retrieval. Deep geological disposal involves the placement of such waste deep underground within a stable geological formation, ensuring its permanent isolation from the human environment. To guarantee the enduring isolation and retardation of radionuclides with half-lives spanning tens of thousands to millions of years from the broader ecosystem, it is imperative to comprehend the long-term evolution of deep disposal systems, especially the role of natural barriers. These natural barriers, typically consisting of bedrock, encase the repository and undergo long-term evolutions due to tectonic movements and climate variations. For the effective disposal of high-level radioactive waste, a thorough assessment of the site’s long-term geological stability is essential. This necessitates a comprehensive understanding of its tectonic evolution and development characteristics, including susceptibility to seismic and magmatic events like earthquakes and intrusions. Furthermore, a detailed analysis of alterations in the hydrogeological and geochemical environment resulting from tectonic movements over extended time frames is required to assess the potential for the migration of radionuclides. In this paper, we have examined international evaluation methodologies employed to elucidate the predictive long-term evolution of natural barriers within disposal systems. We have extracted relevant methods from international case studies and applied a preliminary scenario illustrating the long-term evolution of the geological environment at the KURT (KAERI Underground Research Tunnel) site. Nevertheless, unlike international instances, the scarcity of quantitative data limits the depth of our interpretation. To present a dependable scenario in the future, it is imperative to develop predictive technologies aimed at comprehensively studying the geological evolution processes in the Korean peninsula, particularly within the context of radioactive waste disposal.

For the performance and safety assessments of deep geological disposal, developing scenarios, which represent possible long-term changes in the surface environment, is required. These scenarios are formulated using a list of FEPs (Features, Events, and Processes) that describes characteristics of disposal system components. In this study, using international FEP (IFEP) list from OECD/NEA, the individual FEPs related to uplift-subsidence and erosion-deposition were analyzed, and the correlation between each FEP was evaluated. From the IFEP list, the elements related to uplift-subsidence and erosion-deposition processes that cause long-term changes in the surface environment were identified. Uplift-subsidence, erosion - deposition, and the long-term change factors caused by them were analyzed and a correlation diagram was produced according to their interactions. Basis for the integrated analysis of long-term changes in the surface environment and the construction of long-term change scenarios were established considering the evaluation of the factors that cause uplift-subsidence and erosiondeposition, and their correlation with the hydrology-hydrogeology, topography and local climate of the affected surface. The results of this study will be used for systematically formulating scenarios of long-term changes in the surface environment due to uplift-subsidence and erosion-deposition based on natural phenomena. And, it may be necessary to modify and supplement the correlation of domestic FEPs based on the correlation diagram of IFEPs in order to analyze long-term changes in the surface environment in an integrated manner.

To prevent the release of radionuclides into the biosphere, disposal facilities for radioactive waste should be located to provide isolation from the accessible biosphere for tens of thousands to a million years after closure. During the period of interest, the constantly evolving natural environment and possible geological events of the site can cause disturbances to the containment function of the repository. Thus, for the long-term safety assessment of the repository, the possible long-term change of natural barrier should be considered. Due to the characteristics of radionuclides that transport mainly through the groundwater, understanding the long-term evolution of groundwater flow and geochemical properties is essential to assess the long-term changes in the natural barrier performance. The changes in characteristics of natural rocks and geological structures are one of the main factors that determine the hydrological and geochemical characteristics of the deep underground. In this study, we plan to develop a methodology to estimate these future geological evolutions in order to assess the possibility of hazardous events of the site that can affect hydrological or geochemical properties over the period of interest, and also in order to verify the change in the geological environment is within the safe performance range even after the period of interest. However, it is very unreliable to predict future changes in the natural environment because it is very heterogeneous, complex, and difficult to observe directly. For the preliminary study of the project, we reviewed cases of future evolution prediction researches with regard to the geological environment of disposal site and methods they applied to reduce the uncertainty of the prediction. The results will be used to establish basic data for future studies on the long-term evolution of hydraulic-mechanics performance of natural barrier and long-term evolution of geochemical performance around KURT site. In addition, it can contribute to construct long-term evolution scenario of the geological environment around future URL site.

A methodology is under development to reconstruct and predict the long-term evolution of the natural barrier comprising the site of radioactive waste disposal. The natural barrier must protect the human zone from radionuclides for a long time. So for this, we need to be able to restore the evolution of the bedrock constituting the natural barrier from the past to the present and to predict from the present to the future. A methodology is being studied using surface outcrop, tunnel face of KURT (KAERI Underground Research Tunnel), and drill core at KAERI (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute). Among them, drill core is an essential material for identifying deep geological properties, which could not be confirmed near the surface when considering the geological condition of the repository in the deep part. In this study, we selected several qualitative and quantitative analyses to construct a deep lithological model from the disposal perspective. These were applied to drill core samples around the KURT. There are the dikes presumed the Cretaceous were intruded by Jurassic granitoids in the study area. Analyzing trace elements of each rock type in the study area classified through geochemical characteristics and microstructure in previous studies made it possible to obtain qualitative information on the petrogenetic process. In addition, synthesizing the quantitative numerical age allows for grasping the evolution of bedrock, including intrusion and cutting relationships. LAICPMS was used for determining the age of zircons in plutonic rocks. The highly reliable 40Ar-39Ar method was selected for volcanic rocks because it can correct the loss of Ar gas and obtain the values of two types of Ar isotopes in a single sample. As a result, it was possible to infer the formation environment of rocks through anomalies in specific trace element content. And according to the numerical ages, it was possible to support the known separated rock type found in previous studies or to present a quantitative precedence relation for unclassified rocks. These methods could be applied to reconstruct the long-term evolution of bedrock within natural barriers.

Performance and safety assessments for deep geological disposal are often conducted over a longterm time scale, such as from hundreds of thousands to a million years. During this period, it is expected that the surface environment will be changed significantly. Uplift-subsidence and erosion-deposition are thought to be included as the main causes of the changes, and it is necessary to evaluate their expected effects. In this study, the conceptual processes of the changes in the surface environment components were to be presented by identifying the uplift-subsidence and erosion-deposition processes and analyzing their effect on the surface environment components. For inferring the long-term change process of the surface environment due to the internal activities of the Earth, the process of uplift and subsidence caused by crustal movements that change the subsurface environment through the deep and sallow underground was briefly presented in the form of a chain flowchart. Uplift-subsidence is mainly caused by diastrophism due to tectonic movement, such as subduction at the boundary of plates. They can change the geomorphology by affecting sealevel change and erosion-deposition. The changed geographical features have an influence on the distribution of surface water and the flow path of groundwater. They also have an impact on the scale and processes of local uplift and erosion, which can be the main factors of pedogenesis and vegetation in the local site. The results of this study can be helpful for formulating scenarios related to long-term evolution in the surface environment required for performance and safety assessments of deep geological disposal.

Numerical modeling and scenario composition are needed to characterize the geological environment of the disposal site and analyze the long-term evolution of natural barriers. In this study, processes and features of the hydro-mechanical behavior of natural barriers were categorized and represented using the interrelation matrix proposed by SKB and Posiva. A hydro-mechanical coupled model was evaluated for analyzing stress field changes and fracture zone re-activation. The processes corresponding to long-term evolution and the hydro-mechanical mechanisms that may accompany critical processes were identified. Consequently, practical numerical methods could be considered for these geological engineering issues. A case study using a numerical method for the stability analysis of an underground disposal system was performed. Critical stress distribution regime problems were analyzed numerically by considering the strata’s movement. Another case focused on the equivalent continuum domain composition under the upscaling process in fractured rocks. Numerical methods and case studies were reviewed, confirming that an appropriate and optimized modeling technique is essential for studying the stress state and geological history of the Korean Peninsula. Considering the environments of potential disposal sites in Korea, selecting the optimal application method that effectively simulates fractured rocks should be prioritized.

CYPRUS is a web-based waste disposal research comprehensive information management program developed by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute over three years from 2004. This program is stored as existing quality assurance documents and data, and the research results can be viewed at any time. In addition, it helps to perform all series of tasks related to the safety evaluation study of the repository in accordance with the quality assurance system. In the future, it is necessary to improve the user convenience by clarifying the relationship between FEP and scenarios and upgrading output functions such as visualization and automatic report generation. This purpose of this study is to research and develop the advanced program of CYPRUS. This study is based on building FEP, DIM and scenario databases. It is necessary to develop an algorithm to analyze and visualize the FEP, DIM and scenario relationship. This project is an integrated information processing platform for DB management and visualization considering user convenience. The first development goal is to build long-term evolutionary FEP, DIM, and scenarios as a database. The linkage by FEP item was designed in consideration of convenience by using a mixed delimiter of letters and numbers. This design provides information on detailed interactions and impacts between FEP items. Scenario data lists a series of events and characteristic change information for performance evaluation in chronological order. In addition, it includes information on FEP occurrence and mutual nutrition by period, and information on whether or not the repository performance is satisfied by item. The second development goal is to realize the relationship analysis and visualization function of FEP and scenario based on network analysis technique. Based on DIM, this function analyzes and visualizes interactions between FEPs in the same way as PID, RES, etc. In addition, this function analyzes FEP and DIM using network analysis technique and visualizes it as a diagram. The developed platform will be used to construct and visualize the FEP DB covering research results in various disposal research fields, to analyze and visualize the relationship between core FEP and scenarios, and finally to construct scenarios and calculation cases that are the evaluation target of the comprehensive performance evaluation model. In addition, it is expected to support the knowledge exchange of experts based on the FEP and scenario integrated information processing platform, and to utilize the platform itself as a part of the knowledge transfer system for knowledge preservation.

The safety assessment of a geological disposal system is performed over a period of hundreds of thousands of years, during which the activity of radionuclides in spent nuclear fuel decreases to natural radioactivity levels. During this period, the biosphere also experiences the long-term evolution of the surface environment including climate, terrain, and ecosystem changes. These changes cause changes in the water balance, which in turn change the pathways of radionuclides in the subsurface. Therefore, it is essential to consider these long-term changes in the surface environment for a reasonable biosphere safety assessment. For this purpose, this study developed the biosphere assessment module considering the long-term evolution of the surface environment, as a sub-module of APro (Adaptive process-based total system performance assessment framework). As a preceding study, the biosphere assessment module was previously developed using COMSOL for hydraulic and radionuclide transport processes, to simulate the pathway of radionuclides traveling from the shallow aquifer to the surface water body and soil. To consider the long-term evolution of the surface environment, the previous module needed to be improved to apply different water balances as boundary conditions of the module at each snapshot, which is a sub-time period divided based on the surface evolution data. To this end, this study utilized SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) which calculates the water balance using the surface environmental data including climate, terrain, land cover, and soil type. Conceptually, SWAT calculated annual water balance considering surface environmental changes, and certain components (i.e., groundwater recharge and hydraulic head of water bodies) of water balance were transferred to COMSOL as external data to simulate the pathway of radionuclide transport and spatio-temporal variability of radionuclides. At the current stage, the biosphere computational module has been developed to correspond to its conceptual model, and we plan to further test the applicability of the module using different surface environmental data.

Since it takes hundreds of thousands of years for the radiotoxicity of spent nuclear fuel to decrease to natural levels, interactions between each repository barrier, climate change, and geological evolutions are inevitable. These processes should be defined as the long-term evolution FEPs and considered in the performance assessment to ensure the long-term safety of the disposal system. The literature survey on geological characteristics and history of the Korean peninsula was conducted, and the list of A-KRS-FEPs which are directly or indirectly related to long-term evolutions was identified in this study. The ice age and geological change are the capital phenomena considered in the exceedingly long-term evolution before/after climate change. The historical data on ice sheets and permafrost were analyzed to investigate the effects of the ice ages on the Korean peninsula. The sealevel changes were investigated based on the research on the coastal terrace to identify the impact on uplift and shoreline change accompanying the ice age. Also, the survey on the geological history data was conducted from the perspective of tectonic activity, metamorphism, igneous activity, and seismic activities to consider the geodynamic evolution of the Korean peninsula. As results, it was suggested that 14 FEPs were directly related to climate change, 18 FEPs were directly related to geological evolution, and 47 FEPs were indirectly relevant to long-term geodynamics. The consent-based FEPs and scenarios for the long-term evolution will be developed shortly, including most of the critical long-term evolution phenomena defined in this study and which are highly probable in domestic disposal conditions. The evaluation and verification of the APro system for long-term safety will accomplish using these FEPs and scenarios.

The timescale for the post-closure safety assessment of a deep geological repository ranges from ten thousand to a million year. In such a long period of time, the biosphere inevitably undergoes changes. Therefore, the long-term evolution of a biosphere is recognized as an important issue in the post-closure safety assessment of a deep geological repository for spent fuels. In this study, we reviewed the approaches to address the long-term evolution of a biosphere. The major drivers of longterm evolution of a biosphere are the climate change and the resulting landscape development. They can affect the hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical characteristics of a biosphere, and then the radionuclide migration through the biosphere followed by the exposure doses for the critical groups. In addition, human activities and the social developments can affect the climate change resulting in the long-term evolution of a biosphere. To make a biosphere assessment, the long-term evolution scenarios for the biosphere should be formulated considering these climate change, landscape development, and human activities. In addition, features, events, and processes (FEPs) that affect the long-term evolution of a biosphere should be used. According to the Safety Case reports of Finland, the major long-term evolution scenario drivers of a biosphere are local sea-level change due to climate change and land use related to crop type, irrigation procedures, livestock, forest management, construction of a well, and demographics. The climate change causing the local sea-level change can be simulated using various earth system models such as CLIMBER-2, MPI/UW, and UVic and an icesheet model such as SICOPOLIS. The review results of this study and FEPs related to the climate change, the landscape development, and human activities will be used to formulate long-term evolution scenarios for the safety assessment of a deep geological repository for spent fuels.

In recent years, the importance of the thermo-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical coupled processes is increasing in the performance assessment (PA) of the high-level radioactive waste repository. In the case of mechanical behavior, it is very important because it can affect fluid flow and radionuclide transport by changing the porosity and permeability of the medium. In particular, Excavation Damaged Zone (EDZ) should be considered essential in PA because the migration of radionuclide is affected by the enhanced hydraulic transmissivity and altered geomechanical behavior of EDZ. Furthermore, due to various thermo-hydraulic behaviors such as decay heat generated from radioactive waste, pore water pressure increase, and swelling pressure of bentonite buffer material, mechanical evolution is occurred which may change the size and physical properties of EDZ. Therefore, to solve this problem, analysis of coupled thermal-hydraulic-mechanical (THM) processes with the effect of long-term evolution of EDZ due to the mechanical behavior should be accompanied. In this study, numerical model for the long-term evolution due to mechanical behavior considering EDZ using the Adaptive Process-based total system performance analysis framework for a geological disposal system (APro) proposed by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). In the case of EDZ, the concept of Mazars’ damage evolution model was applied to simulate the behavior using the continuum model, and the change in hydraulic properties according to the degree of damage was considered. To investigate the importance of mechanical behavior in PA, the results were compared by performing numerical analysis according to the presence or absence of mechanical analysis. Finally, numerical analysis considering the mechanical evolution of EDZ was conducted using the model developed in this study to investigate the effect of EDZ.

It can take hundreds of thousands of years for decreasing radiological effects of high-level radioactive wastes to those of natural background radiation. Therefore, long-term time scale should be considered in order to demonstrate performance and safety of deep geological disposal of the radioactive wastes. The changes of surface environment for these long-term time scale can have influence on safety analysis by changing transport path of radionuclides from the radioactive wastes. Changes in climate is considered as one of main factors causing the long-term changes of the surface environment. The own effects and interactions of climate with other components of the geological disposal system are organized in features, events, and processes (FEPs). In this study, some natural processes occurred by changes of climate were suggested and the connectivity between each process is proposed based on the relation of the FEPs concerned with the changes of climate and surface environment. The processes were classified into global and regional/local scales and was analyzed, respectively. Then, the influences of the processes on shallow groundwater and surface water body environment, which might be transport path of radioactive nuclides in local/site scales, were expected. As the proposed connection demonstrate the order or hierarchical relations of the natural processes, it can shows that some output by a certain process may be input of other process connected the former process in numerical simulations for interpreting the processes. If the connection may be considered to be suitable to represent longterm changes of the surface environment, it can be evaluated that the expected scenarios based on the connection is also proper. In addition, it can be helpful in selecting factors to be studied more detailed in terms of climate change for expecting long-term changes in the surface environment by analysis on the input and output data. The results of this study can be used as basic approaches to represent the long-term changes in the surface environment caused by specific natural processes from changes of climate. It will be also helpful for formulating scenarios related to long-term evolution in the surface environment required for performance and safety assessments of the deep geological disposal.

Deep geological disposal with multiple barriers composed of engineered and natural barriers has been considered as the most suitable disposal method for high level nuclear wastes. In terms of the geological evaluation factors, brittle structures such as fractures and faults should be characterized around the repository site, because radionuclides transfer mainly with groundwater in the subsurface and groundwater flows through discontinuous brittle structures. The geological survey for the characterization of deep geological repository sites is widely conducted by narrowing the survey area from regional scale down to local scale, which could be divided into three steps: 1) using remote sense or geophysical survey, 2) trench and drill core logging including field survey based on the first step, 3) detailed geological survey in the tunnel. In this study, we analyzed the distribution of geological structures to derive the history of brittle deformation in and around the KURT (KAERI Underground Research Tunnel) site located in the KAERI (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute). The bedrock of the KURT site is mainly consist of Jurassic two-mica granite, which is extensively intruded by andesitic dikes of Cretaceous with N-S to NE-SW strikes. The two-mica granite in the study area was deformed in a ductile deformation environment and has been overprinted by major geological structures such as faults, dikes, veins, and joints. From this study, we identified 8 brittle deformation events based on the cross-cutting relationship among the geological structures, which are obtained from the analyses in and around the KURT. In order to evaluate the reactivation and fluid flow potential of brittle structures, it is essential to determine the characteristics and ages of the brittle structures and the composed rocks around the site.

Disposal facilities for radioactive waste shall be sited to provide isolation from the accessible biosphere. The features shall aim to provide this isolation for tens of thousands to a million years after closure. For the safety assessments of repository, the long-term natural evolution and possible events of the site, that can cause disturbances to the facility over the period of interest, should be considered. Geological development processes that the site have been experienced can contribute to understanding and descripting the present-day conditions. Moreover, knowledge of the past is necessary to predict the future evolution of the site. With regard to disposal site, understanding past geological evolution history allows to access the possibility of hazardous events of the site that can cause disturbances to the facility over the period of interest, and to verify the change in the geological environment is within the safe performance range even after the period of interest. In addition, certain parameters that change with the geological evolution can affect the hydrological and geochemical characteristics which are essential to disposal performance. There are various factors in the evolution of the geological environment, but not all are related to disposal safety. The objective of this research is to develop a geological reconstruction method considering factors that should be derived preferentially for the geological characteristics of the disposal site and the evaluation of the long-term safety. As a preliminary study on this, we investigated case studies related to geological reconstruction of overseas disposal research institutes, and reviewed which factors are suitable for the domestic granitoid distribution environment. It is expected that systematic and consistent results will be possible in the future through this methodology.