항만은 우리나라와 같이 국가경제에서 수출입 의존도가 높은 국가에서는 중요기간시설이자 많은 부가가치를 창출하는 매우 중요 한 역할을 맡고 있다. 중요한 시설임에도 불구하고 과거에는 항만에 대한 인식이 미흡했었으나 2000년대에 들어 세계 컨테이너 물동량이 증 가하고 중국의 경제가 발전함에 따라 동북아 지역에 물동량이 많이 발생하게 되어 항만의 역할의 중요성과 인식도 변화하였다. 본 연구는 우 리나라 항만 기본계획 및 항만 구분에 따른 항만 역할을 검토하여 항만 물동량에 영향을 미치는 결정요인을 연구하고자 한다. 연구의 대상으 로는 부산항과 광양항 같이 글로벌 환적항만을 제외한 배후지역 물동량의 영향을 많이 받는 국내 중소형 컨테이너항만을 대상으로 정하였다. 분석결과 항만물동량에 영향을 미치는 요인으로는 접안능력, 활성화정도, 연결국가수, GRDP, 제조업체수로 나타났다.

The forecasting of container volume which is the basis of port logistics facilities expansion has a great influence on development of an port. Based on this importance, various previous studies have presented methodology on container volume forecasting. The results of many previous studies pointed out the limitations of future forecasting based on past container volume and emphasized that more various factors should be considered to compensate this. Taking notice of this point, this study forecasted future container volume by using ARIMA model, time series analysis and System Dynamics (SD) method, a dynamic analysis technique and performed the comparative review with the forecast of the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime affairs. Recently with rapid changes in economic and social environment, the non-linear change tendency for forecasting container traffic is presented as a new alternative to the country.

The aim of our study was to investigate the interactive effects of container size and nutrient supply on plant growth, chlorophyll synthesis, transpiration, CO2 assimilation, water use efficiency (WUE), and nutrient uptake of vinca plant (Catharanthus roseus). A complete experiment utilizing four concentrations of fertilizer and three volumes of containers was conducted. As the container size was increased, the plant height, leaf area, and dry weight of vinca significantly increased regardless of fertilizer level. The leaf area and dry weight of vinca were highly sensitive to the container size. However, the chlorophyll contents of vinca 20 days after the transplant significantly increased with decreasing container sizes and increasing fertilizer concentrations. Significant differences in transpiration and CO2 assimilation occurred with the use of differentfertilizer solutions, but the highest values for transpiration and CO2 assimilation were in plants grown in the 15 cm-diameter containers. The highest water use efficiency was observed in the plants grown in 10 cm-containers with 4 dS/m of fertilizer, and there were no significant differences in WUE values among container sizes with fertilizer concentrations of 0, 1, or 2 dS/m. No significant difference in nutrient uptake was observed among the fertilizer levels or among the container sizes. However, at a fertilizer concentration of 4 dS/m, the uptake of several nutrients, including N, P, K, Ca, Mg, B and Fe, was higher in small containers than in larger ones.

This paper estimated the container volumes for the Incheon port with univariate time series. As best suited models Winters' additive model, ARIMA model,and Winters' additive model were selected by import-export, coastal, and transshipment volume respectively, based on the data of monthly volume by October 2008 since January 2001. This study supposed the import-export container volumes would be decreased by 14% against that in 2008 and would have been recovered to the increasing trend of the volumes beyond the fourth quarter of 2010. The future import-export and transshipment volumes showed the increasing trend beyond 2011, while the coastal volumes would be on the stagnation. The yearly container volumes were finally forecasted as 1,705, 2,432, and 3,341 thousand TEU in 2011, 2015, and 2020 respectively.

본 연구에서는 광양항의 장래 컨테이너 물동량 및 교통량을 일변량 시계열모형을 통해 예측하고, 컨테이너 선박교통량을 산출하였다. 광양항의 물돌량과 입항 척당 물동량의 시계열 모형은 모두 추세와 계절적 변동이 있는 Winters 가법 모형으로 최적합 되었다. 광양항의 컨테이너 물동량은 2007년과 비교하여 2011년과 2015년에 각각 7.4%, 16.2% 가량 증가하여 약 2,756천TEU, 4,470천TEU가 될 것으로 예측되었다. 또한 2011년과 2015년의 컨테이너 입항 척당 평균 물동량은 2007년 대비 약 30.3%, 54.6% 증가하여 각각 675TEU, 801TEU가 될 것으로 예측되었다. 광양항에 대한 컨테이너 선박의 교통량은 2011년과 2015년에 각각 4,078척, 5,921척이 될 것으로 추정되었다.

컨테이너 물동량 예측은 항만과 항만의 개발에 있어서 매우 중요하다. 일반적으로 이동평균법, 지수평활법, 회귀분석과 같은 통계적인 방법들은 물동량 예측에서 많이 사용되어졌다. 하지만, 컨테이너 물동량 예측에 영향을 주는 여러 가지 요소들을 고려해 보면 다중병렬처리시스템인 신경망을 이용하는 것이 효과적이다. 본 연구는 신경망의 역전파학습알고리즘을 이용하여 컨테이너 활동량을 예측하였다. 신경망을 이용하여 영향력 있는 요소들을 선별하였으며, 선별된 요소들을 이용하여 물동량 예측을 하였다. 또한 제안된 신경망 알고리즘과 통계적인 방법의 예측들을 비교하였다.

In order to deal with the increase of container cargo traffic volume more effectively, the ministry of maritime affairs & fisheries has a long-term plan to develop Gaduk Island. According to the plan, the New Port will handle 4,600,00TEUs annually. The completion of the project will enable the port of Busan to perform as a hub port in the Asia Pacific era of the year 2000 with sufficient port facilities, and this will lead to a new era of oceanic Korea. With the advent of the Pacific Rim Era of the year 2000, Busan metropolis has set a strategic development plan to establish the area as the center of logistics in the noreast Asian region as well as to become the stronghold of economic activity in Korea's southeast region. To this end, industries that will open the doors to a marine era and a new industrial complex focused on logistics are planned in the West Busan area where Gimhae International Airport and the Busan New Port meet. This paper aims to find out the functional relation and complement between the Busan New Port Distri-Park handing container cargo traffic volume and the West Busan Logistics Pa가 handling an air cargo and railroad goods. Especially, paper aims to suggest the West Busan Logistics Park as the efficient management of the container cargo traffic volume due to the Development Plan of the Busan New Port.