The Bayesian algorithm model is a model algorithm that calculates probabilities based on input data and is mainly used for complex disasters, water quality management, the ecological structure between living things or living-non-living factors. In this study, we analyzed the main factors affected Korean Estuary Trophic Diatom Index (KETDI) change based on the Bayesian network analysis using the diatom community and physicochemical factors in the domestic estuarine aquatic ecosystem. For Bayesian analysis, estuarine diatom habitat data and estuarine aquatic diatom health (2008~2019) data were used. Data were classified into habitat, physical, chemical, and biological factors. Each data was input to the Bayesian network model (GeNIE model) and performed estuary aquatic network analysis along with the nationwide and each coast. From 2008 to 2019, a total of 625 taxa of diatoms were identified, consisting of 2 orders, 5 suborders, 18 families, 141 genera, 595 species, 29 varieties, and 1 species. Nitzschia inconspicua had the highest cumulative cell density, followed by Nitzschia palea, Pseudostaurosira elliptica and Achnanthidium minutissimum. As a result of analyzing the ecological network of diatom health assessment in the estuary ecosystem using the Bayesian network model, the biological factor was the most sensitive factor influencing the health assessment score was. In contrast, the habitat and physicochemical factors had relatively low sensitivity. The most sensitive taxa of diatoms to the assessment of estuarine aquatic health were Nitzschia inconspicua, N. fonticola, Achnanthes convergens, and Pseudostaurosira elliptica. In addition, the ratio of industrial area and cattle shed near the habitat was sensitively linked to the health assessment. The major taxa sensitive to diatom health evaluation differed according to coast. Bayesian network analysis was useful to identify major variables including diatom taxa affecting aquatic health even in complex ecological structures such as estuary ecosystems. In addition, it is possible to identify the restoration target accurately when restoring the consequently damaged estuary aquatic ecosystem.

Forest insect pests are severe disturbance factors in forest ecosystems, inducing the diverse negative impacts on the forestry economy, ecosystem service, biodiversity, and sustainable ecosystem management. Majority of forest insect pests are invasive species in many countries. To understand the occurrence patterns including population dynamics and dispersal of species, ecological modelling is popularly considered as a tool. Ecological modelling can provide information that is required for decision making through hazard ratings, the examination of potential impacts, and the prediction of dispersal patterns for forest pests. In this study, we review the modelling methods and present some case studies conducted in Korean forests.

본 연구는 생태계 모델을 이용하여 부산연안으로 유입되는 부하량 삭감에 따른 해역의 수질개선 정도를 예측하였다. 모델링 결과에 의하면 COD, T-N, T-P 모두 수영만 연안과 낙동강 하구에서 뚜렷한 개선을 나타냈으며, 수영만을 제외한 만 중부에서 만 동쪽까지 는 수질개선이 거의 나타나지 않았다. 이는, 부산연안이 남해에 위치한 다른 해역에 비해 개방형경계를 가지고 있어서, 물질교환이 빠르 기 때문으로 판단된다. 수질개선을 위한 본 해역의 삭감 COD 부하량은 타 해역에 비해 적었고, 총 유입부하량에 대한 삭감비율 또한 작게 나타났다. 본 연구에 적용한 부하삭감량을 적용하면 수영만, 낙동강 하구부근에서 뚜렷한 수질개선효과를 얻을 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

Due to unprecedented economic development and human aggregation since the end of 20th century, disturbances are ubiquitous across different fields, conservation, pest management, biodiversity, agriculture/forestry, fishery, and epidemics. Disturbing agents are spatially and temporally expanding and regarded difficult to analyze due to complexity residing in the totality of environment-organism relationships. Some basic mathematical models were reviewed in expressing temporal abundance and spatial distribution of populations. Ecological modelling procedure was outlined, and a few case studies were presented in pest population dispersal. Efficiency of spatial models was further illustrated in prediction and provision of management policies. Other related models such as individual based models and cellular automata were discussed additionally in expressing spatial and temporal dynamics in individual and population levels.

울산만의 육상기인 오염부하에 대한 해역수질의 응답특성을 조사하고 만내 수질관리에 활용하기 위하여 해양생태계모델링 연구를 수행하였다. 생태계모텔에 의해 계산된 울산만의 수질은 만 내측에서 COD 농도 2.8mg/L로 해양수질 III등급 수준으로 나타났다. 계산결과 울산만 전체 해역의 수질을 II등급으로 개선하기 위해서는 육상부하를 약 30% 이상 삭감해야 하며, COD 농도 1.0mg/L이하의 수질이 되기 위해서는 전체 육상부하의 70% 이상을 삭감해야 하는 것으로 나타났다. 해역수질 II등급을 유지하기 위하여 삭감해야 할 오염부하량은 약 3,083kgCOD/day, 이 때의 환경용량은 약 7,193kgCOD/day로 계산되었다. 태화강 하구역은 식물플랑크톤 대증식(Bloom)이 상습적으로 발생하는 해역이므로 식물플랑크톤에 의한 자생유기물 부하를 감소시키기 위해서는 유가물 삭감 이외에도 영양염의 제어가 필요한 것으로 나타났다.