In this paper, a mathematical model of regionalization based on graph theory to investigate the patterns induced by movements of livestock vehicles in cities under outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is proposed. We then compare the results of simulation from the regionalization model to actual HPAI outbreaks in 2016/2017 to evaluate the validity of the model. Specifically, we (1) configured a complex network structure with analytic tools and properties in graph theory to abstract the paths among farms and livestock facilities; (2) employed statistical methods to estimate the possibility of propagation between two clusters; (3) applied the developed method to an actual HPAI outbreak in Korea in 2016 and conducted a simulation to determine if the proposed modeling for regionalization is an effective prediction measure. The clustered regions proposed by the simulation correctly reflected the regional clustering of actual cases, while simultaneously contain the cities exposed to potential damage when separated. Based on these findings, we conclude that our proposed regionalization model is suitable for making policy judgments to establish a preemptive biosecurity system.
This study describes the national program of year-round surveillance and monitoring for avian influenza (AI). The validity of the epidemiologically-based surveillance scheme was assessed. Korea’s current surveillance program is aimed at detecting subclinical infection of either the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus or the low pathogenic avian influenza virus, types H5 and H7, both of which carry risk of converting to HPAI. The current AI surveillance program has demonstrated that implementing a surveillance strategy is plausible. Farmer and livestock related professional support is the critical step of specimen collection to discover hidden infection. Early detection of AI virus infection can achieve best by the combined efforts of farmers, animal health authorities, and other related industries.
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) has great potential for causing huge economic loss and was the first disease identified by the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) in its official list of free countries and zones. This study examined the governmental expenditures for five FMD epidemics that occurred in the Republic of Korea between 2000 and 2011. The costs of an epidemic ranged from 26 billion Korean won (KRW, approximately 23.6 million US dollars, ) to a maximum of 2,044 billion KRW (US 1.9 billion). For two epidemics in which vaccinations were implemented, the costs were higher than those epidemics without vaccination. The mean cost for an outbreak ranged from 0.5 billion KRW (US 4.5 million) for the 2010/2011 epidemic to 18.2 billion KRW (US 16.5 million) for the 2000 epidemic. Mean costs per infected premises were 7.0 billion KRW for cattle farms (95% CI: 4.72∼9.28), 1.38 billion KRW for pig farms (0.88∼1.87), 0.11 billion KRW for deer farms (0.08∼0.14), and 0.10 billion KRW for goat farms (0.07∼0.13). The highest cost for an outbreak in cattle seemed associated with the number of outbreak cattle farms in two epidemics in which vaccination was implemented.
This study presents a smartphone application, named「Vepi Tools」. This stand-alone type application is aiming at supporting on-site decision-making for animal health professionals. It provides basic calculations of epidemiology including estimating disease frequency, measuring associations using two-by-two table, calculating sample sizes to detect disease, and to estimate a mean or prevalence. Rationale and examples are available for each function. This study shows some use cases with this「Vepi Tools」application.
The Veterinary Epidemiology Division of The Animal, Plant, and Fisheries Quarantine and Inspection Agency (QIA) was established in 2002. It is the first governmental organization in the Republic of Korea to be charged with the epidemiological task of managing veterinary public health. In commemorating the previous efforts of this organization, this paper describes the brief history, concept, tools, and approaches of veterinary epidemiology. The mission of veterinary epidemiology, as a leader of 'One Health', to improve the public health status of human and animal is also discussed.
Over the past decade, the magnitude and variety of modelling work in the realm of veterinary services has shown a significant increase. Accordingly, the need for enhancement of communication and cooperation among modellers (those who develop models), users (those who run models), policy makers (those who use model outputs in decision making on control policy) and coordinators (those who connect modellers with policy makers) has also shown a notable increase. In this paper, terms used in epidemiological models are listed alphabetically and explained. It is expected that development of this lexicon will help to boost communication and collaboration among those concerned with modelling work and its utilization.
During the past dozens of years, animal species indigenous to Korea has been emerged as a symbol of healthy and well-being lifestyle. Developing new cross hybrid and making brand in Korean native chickens serve as an example of pursuing a well-being life. However, lack of systematic management. intervention from the small scaled middlemen during the multi-stages of marketing, poor hygiene at moorings and live bird market, and possibility of contacting to wild birds have been pointed out as risk factors to the outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza ([1PM), especially for small back yard flocks. This study describes the schema of husbandry and marketing on Korean native chickens, and their putative associations with the outbreaks of RPM during the last two big epidemics occurred in the Republic of Korea, which were in the year of 2008 and 2010/2011.
This paper describes the epidemiological characteristics of bovine tuberculosis in Korea during January 2000 to September 2004, when the incidence of bovine tuberculosis increased markedly: a total of 1,054 herds (4,197 cattle) were confirmed to be infected with Mycobacterium bovis during this period. Based on the record of epidemiological investigation, introduction of purchased cattle (22.9%, 125/545) into a farm was the most frequent transmission route of M. bovis infection. On 31.7% (335/1,054) of the infected farms, recurrent infection occurred more than once before the disease has been eradicated completely. The highest rate of recurrence was detected around 70 days after the initial test of the infected herd, which seems to be related to current regulation on the test of animals that cohabited with those previously diagnosed with infection in farms, rather than to the characteristic of the disease. Although the current eradication program has been effective in controlling the disease in dairy cattle in Korea, control measures more specific to beef cattle may be needed because infection rate in beef cattle continues to increase in recent years.
Epidemic models on disease spread attempt to simulate disease transmission and associated control processes. This study reviewed published papers on epidemiological models for the management of foot-and-mouth disease in the world. In addition, an individual animal-based, spatially-explicit, stochastic disease transmission model, the Davis Animal Disease Simulation (DADS) model, was described in the frame of an international collaborative research project participating three countries: Republic of Korea, USA, and New Zealand. In this project, the Korean team is aiming at developing the most appropriate parameters for livestock and epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks. On the other hand, the purpose of foreign counterparts is validating their models: DADS (USA) and InterSpread Plus (New Zealand). Classification of farm types and preliminary estimations on the frequency of intra-herd contacts were also presented. This research project is expected to provide precious information to plan a strategy that will facilitate the eradication of foot-and-mouth disease from Korea.
This paper describes an investigation of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Republic of Korea in January 2010. In this paper, we investigated introduction to the index farm from overseas countries, transmission from index farm to other outbreak farms. The introduction factors were divided direct, indirect factors or airborne spread factor. Based on the epidemiological data, clinical information and other data, in these introduction factors, it was likely that outbreak of FMD in index farm was due to international goods or employees from overseas countries (including China). There were other suggested causes in index farm. But it was less likely that outbreak of FMD in index farm have occurred by other causes. The transmission factors from index farm to other farms were also divided direct, indirect factors or airborne spread factor. In these transmission factors it was possible to make assumptions from index farm to other outbreak farms that the FMD virus was transmitted through animal treatment, persons concerned and persons (who were) attended farmers’ assembly.