The paper suggests a new method of collision avoidance stemming from the concept of the polygonal target ship domain. Since the last century, we have witnessed the current typical ship domains classified and described. In this proposition, firstly, the domain is a geometrical manner which is used in both analytical and statistical method, resulting in the signification of practical application and simulation. Secondly, such domain will be applied to target ship under the combination of two separated parts: “Blocking area” and “Action area” in order to define the area where the ship must keep outside and how the actions to avoid collision can be generated. Thirdly, the concept has suggested the number of mathematical models for different approaching encounters, including head-on, overtaking and crossing situation. Finally, the parameters of turning circle of the ship can be proposed in determining the size of the domain. Statistical evidences indicate that this method reflects a crew’s real habit and psychological in maneuvering. As the result, simple domain is shaped like imagination of sailors, but more accurate in calculating boundary. It promises an effective solution for automatic collision avoidance method. The next researches of this paper have achieved positive results in finding shortest route for avoiding collision. Moreover, while using statistical methods, classical researches face a serious problem in a wide application with different areas, this concept can make up a beneficial solution for the popular application. The numerous ship domains which are in previous researches will be carried out to compare and point out the simplification and effectiveness of the new method in practice.

작물 재배 시 주요 해충 발생에 대해 한두 달 이상 앞선 계절전망이 가능하다면 농가의 해충관리 의사결정이 보다 효율적으로 이루어질 수 있을 것이다. 본 연구에서는 국내 해충 발생과 통계적으로 유의미한 원격상관관계에 있는 기후현상을 찾기 위해 Moving Window Regression (MWR) 기법을 활용하였다. 벼멸구의 발생과 비래는 장기간에 걸쳐 여러 지역에서 연속적으로 일어나는 사건이기 때문에 비슷한 시공간적 규모 를 갖는 기후현상과 통계적인 연관성을 가질 가능성이 높아 본 연구의 대상 해충으로 선택하였다. MWR 통계 분석의 반응변수로써 1983년부터 2014년까지 국내 벼멸구 발생면적 자료를 사용하였고, 10개의 기후모형에서 생산되는 10개의 기후변수를 예보 선행시간별로 추출하여 설명변 수로 사용하였다. 최종적으로 선정된 각 MWR 모형의 특정 시기와 지역의 기후변수는 연간 벼멸구 발생면적 자료와 통계적으로 유의한 상관관 계를 보였다. 결론적으로, 본 연구에서 개발한 MWR 통계 모형을 통해 국내 벼멸구 발생 위험도에 따른 선제적 대응을 위한 벼멸구 계절전망이 가능할 것으로 보인다.

PURPOSES: The demand for extending national highways is increasing, but traffic monitoring is hindered because of resource limitations. Hence, this study classified highway segments into 5 types to improve the efficiency of short-term traffic count planning. METHODS : The traffic volume trends of 880 highway segments were classified through R-squared and linear regression analyses; the steadiness of traffic volume trends was evaluated through coefficient of variance (COV), and the normality of the data were determined through the Shapiro-Wilk W-test. RESULTS : Of the 880 segments, 574 segments had relatively low COV and were classified as type 1 segments, and 123 and 64 segments with increasing and decreasing traffic volume trends were classified as type 2 and type 3 segments, respectively; 80 segments that failed the normality test were classified as type 4, and the remaining 39 were classified as type 5 segments. CONCLUSIONS : A theoretical basis for biennial count planning was established. Biennial count is recommended for types 1~4 because their mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) are approximately 10%. For type 5 (MAPE =19.26%), the conventional annual count can be continued. The results of this analysis can reduce the traffic monitoring budget.

本稿는 安養市의 一般系 D高等學校 2학년 3개학급 학습자들을 대상으로 漢詩授業의 認識 및 그 敎育的 含意를 분석했다. 학습자들의 본문풀이 결과, 학습지에서 신습한자를 漢字辭典처럼 구성하면 학습자들의 독해력과 창의력 신장에 도움이 되었고, 교사의 설명과 시범은 학습자들의 문제해결에 많은 영향을 주었다. 六色思考帽 技法을 적용한 한시의 감상활동 결과, 작품의 분석과 표현기교에 대한 감상의 수준이 높아서, 한시감상에 六色思考帽 技法이 적절했다. 諺文風月은 漢詩의 形式美와 作家의 力量을 체험 할 수 있는 심화활동이었다. 학습자들의 漢詩授業 認識을 I-STATistic을 활용하여 統計分析했는데, 性別이나 授業前 成就 度는 한시수업의 만족도에 유의미한 변수가 아니었다. 두 번째로 授業前 漢文敎科와 漢詩授業에 대한 關心度는 漢詩授業의 滿足度와 상관도는 낮고 인과관계는 없었지만, 수업후 한시수업에 대한 관심도는 유의미한 결과가 도출되었기 때문에, 한시수업은 수업전 인식과 수업후 인식의 변화가 뚜렷했다. 세 번째로 협동학습법이 학습자들의 선호모형으로 판단되지만, 適用授業模型에 따른 漢 詩授業 滿足度는 유의미한 차이가 없었다. 수업후에는 感受性 涵養에 교육적 의미를 찾을 수 있었 다. 따라서 교육과정상 한시단원은 반드시 수업에 적용해야 될 當爲性이 높았다.

A seasonal outlook for crop insect pests is most valuable when it provides accurate information for timely management decisions. In this study, we investigated the probable relationship between climatic phenomena and pest infestations in Korea using two statistical methods. Brown planthopper was selected because of its migration characteristics, which fits well with the concept of our statistical modelling – utilizing a long-term, multi-regional influence of selected climatic phenomena to predict a dominant biological event at certain time and place. The moving window regression (MWR) model showed high correlation between the national infestation trends of brown planthopper and some tempo-spatial climatic variables near its sequential migration path, while the climate index regression (CIR) model resulted in a relatively low correlation compared to the MWR model. Overall, the statistical models developed in this study showed a promising predictability for rice brown planthopper infestation in Korea, although the dynamical relationships between the infestation and selected climatic phenomena need to be further elucidated.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the problems and the sources of defective products and draw improvement plans in a small plastic boat manufacturing process using TOC (Theory Of Constraints) and statistical analysis. TOC is a methodology to present a scheme for optimization of production process by finding the CCR (Capacity Constraints Resource) in the organization or the all production process through the concentration improvement activity. In this paper, we found and reformed constraints and bottlenecks in plastic boat manufacturing process in the target company for less defect ratio and production cost by applying DBR (Drum, Buffer, Rope) scheduling. And we set the threshold values for the critical process variables using statistical analysis. The result can be summarized as follows. First, CCRs in inventory control, material mix, and oven setting were found and solutions were suggested by applying DBR method. Second, the logical thinking process was utilized to find core conflict factors and draw solutions. Third, to specify the solution plan, experiment data were statistically analyzed. Data were collected from the daily journal addressing the details of 96 products such as temperature, humidity, duration and temperature of heating process, rotation speed, duration time of cooling, and the temperature of removal process. Basic statistics and logistic regression analysis were conducted with the defection as the dependent variable. Finally, critical values for major processes were proposed based on the analysis. This paper has a practical importance in contribution to the quality level of the target company through theoretical approach, TOC, and statistical analysis. However, limited number of data might depreciate the significance of the analysis and therefore it will be interesting further research direction to specify the significant manufacturing conditions across different products and processes.

절화용으로 재배중인 스프레이 국화의 탄수화물 함량 과 각 품종 별 함량에 대한 변이계수, 유전력 및 유전 자 전이율 등의 통계학적 분석을 실시하였던 바 그 결 과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 화서 조직, 줄기조직, 화서 에 부착된 엽조직, 줄기에 부착된 엽조직의 당 함량을 분 석한 결과, 줄기조직 및 화서 부분의 줄기는 sucrose, fructose 및 glucose 등 3종류의 당이 모두 검출되었으며 대부분의 품종에서 fructose 함량이 가장 높았다. 반면 줄 기와 화서에 부착된 잎 조직에서는 sucrose는 전혀 검출 할 수 없었으며, fructose 및 glucose 등 2종류의 당만이 검출되었고 대부분의 품종에서 fructose 함량이 높았다. 아 울러 이들 조직 내의 유리당의 함량은 품종 간 상당한 차이를 나타내고 있어 통계학적 유의차가 인정되었다. 변 이계수, 표현형 변이계수, 유전 변이계수, 유전력 및 유 전자 전이율은 유리당의 종류에 관계없이 매우 높은 경 향을 나타내었으며 오차 또는 환경 변이계수와 유전자 전 이는 대단히 낮은 편이었다. 화서와 줄기 조직 내 전분 함량은 품종 간 통계학적 유의차는 인정되었으며 표현형 변이계수, 유전 변이계수, 오차 또는 환경 변이계수를 포 함한 변이계수는 중정도 수준의 변이율을 나타내었으나, 화서를 포함한 줄기 조직은 변이율이 낮고 화서 내 엽 조직은 높은 편이었다. 유전력은 중정도에서 다소 높은 수준까지 차이를 나타내었는데 화서 내 엽 조직이 낮은 편이었고 화서와 줄기 내 잎의 조직이 높은 편이었다. 유 전자 전이는 대단히 낮았고 유전자 전이율 또한 전반적 으로 낮은 편이었다.

This study suggests a prediction model of ground motion spectral shape considering characteristics of earthquake records in Korea. Based on the Graizer and Kalkan’s prediction procedure, a spectral shape model is defined as a continuous function of period in order to improve the complex problems of the conventional models. The approximate spectral shape function is then developed with parameters such as moment magnitude, fault distance, and average shear velocity of independent variables. This paper finally determines estimator coefficients of subfunctions which explain the corelation among the independent variables using the nonlinear optimization. As a result of generating the prediction model of ground motion spectral shape, the ground motion spectral shape well estimates the response spectrum of earthquake recordings in Korea.

이 논문에서는 고속철도교량 설계를 위한 활하중 모델을 통계 및 확률적 방법으로 검토하고, 하중조합의 하중계수가 주는 안전율을 분석하였다. 이 연구는 철도교량 설계기준에 대한 한계상태설계법 개발의 일환이며, 이를 위하여 경부고속철도를 운행하는 열차를 대상으로 약 한달 동안 실측하여 데이터를 수집하고 분석하였다. 이 데이터를 대상으로 교량의 설계수명에 맞도록 4가지 통계 방법들을 적용하여 설계하중을 추정하여 비교․검토하였다. 또한, 철도교량의 설계하중조합이 주는 안전율을 검토하기 위하여 신뢰도지수를 구하고 이를 분석하였다. 실측 데이터로부터 추정한 활하중효과에 대하여, 현행 고속철도 설계활하중인 표준열차하중의 0.75배를 적용한 설계활하중 효과의 크기가 최소 30～22% 더 크게 나왔다. 신뢰도분석을 통하여, 극한한계상태만을 기준으로 본다면, 추가적인 하중계수 감소의 가능성이 있음을 알 수 있다.

As the industrial scale is getting enlarged and the people’s quality of life is growing, the electric energy consumption has been rapidly increasing every year and the frequency of electrical accidents such as electrical shock This paper gives statistical analysis of the number of casualties caused by the electrical shock, five hundred people every year, but it still exceeded the shaping risk of electrical accidents to anyone in KOREA. In this paper, for the electrical shock of the in 2014 act by occupation, voltage electrical equipment, location, accident type and months. In order to acquire electrical shock in 2014, we visited police stations and hospitals and analyzed records of accidents. The result showed that the electrical shock alone caused 37 people deaths and 569 injuries.

It has been widely accepted that the pressure management of water distribution systems using pressure reducing valves(PRVs) would be an effective method for controlling leakages. A pressure reducing valve (PRV) regulates outlet pressure regardless of fluctuating flow and varying inlet pressure, thereby reducing leakage and mitigating the stress on the water distribution system. However, the operation of a PRV is vulnerable to its mechanical condition and hydraulic operability. In this research, the effect of PRVs installed in water distribution system are evaluated in terms of hydraulic pressure reduction and mechanical performance by analyzing measured pressure data with statistical approach. A statistical approach using the moving average filter and frequency analysis based on fourier transform is presented to detect abnormally operated PRVs that have been densely installed in water distribution system. The result shows that the proposed approach can be a good performance evaluation method by simply measuring pressures for the PRVs.

This study have been conducted to analyze the feasibility of establishing Contamination Warning System(CWS) that is capable of monitoring early natural or intentional water quality accidents, and providing active and quick responses for domestic C_water supply system. In order to evaluate the water quality data set, pH, turbidity and free residual chlorine concentration data were collected and each statistical value(mean, variation, range) was calculated, then the seasonal variability of those were analyzed using the independent t-test. From the results of analyzing the distribution of outliers in the measurement data using a high-pass filter, it could be confirmed that a lot of lower outliers appeared due to data missing. In addition, linear filter model based on autoregressive model(AR(1) and AR(2)) was applied for the state estimation of each water quality data set. From the results of analyzing the variability of the autocorrelation coefficient structure according to the change of window size(6hours~48hours), at least the window size longer than 12hours should be necessary for estimating the state of water quality data satisfactorily.

PURPOSES: This study has been conducted to determine a homogeneous segment and integration to improve the efficiency of short-term traffic count. We have also attempted to reduce the traffic monitoring budget. METHODS: Based on the statistical approach, a homogeneous segment in the same road section is determined. Statistical analysis using t-test, mean difference, and correlation coefficient are carried out for 10-year-long (2004-2013) short-term count traffic data and the MAPE of fresh data (2014) are evaluated. The correlation coefficient represents a trend in traffic count, while the mean difference and t-score represent an average traffic count. RESULTS : The statistical analysis suggests that the number of target segments varies with the criteria. The correlation coefficient of more than 30% of the adjacent segment is higher than 0.8. A mean difference of 36.2% and t-score of 19.5% for adjacent segments are below 20% and 2.8, respectively. According to the effectiveness analysis, the integration criteria of the mean difference have a higher effect as compared to the t-score criteria. Thus, the mean difference represents a traffic volume similarity. CONCLUSIONS : The integration of 47 road segments from 882 adjacent road segments indicate 8.87% of MAPE, which is within an acceptable range. It can reduce the traffic monitoring budget and increase the count to improve an accuracy of traffic volume estimation.

In order to research the wave characteristics in Suyeong bay on typhoon in 2011, this study was carried out observation of wave on typhoon "Ma-on",calculation of wave characteristics using STWAVE and comparison with significant wave heights between observ