Global warming has a major impact on the Earth’s precipitation and temperature fluctuations, and significantly affects the habitats and biodiversity of many species. Although the number of alien plants newly introduced in South Korea has recently increased due to the increasing frequency of international exchanges and climate change, studies on how climate change affects the distribution of these alien plants are lacking. This study predicts changes in the distribution of suitable habitats according to RCPs climate change scenarios using the current distribution of the invasive alien plant Conyza sumatrensis and bioclimatic variables. C. sumatrensis has a limited distribution in the southern part of South Korea. Isothermality (bio03), the max temperature of the warmest month (bio05), and the mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio09) were found to influence the distribution of C. sumatrensis. In the future, the suitable habitat for C. sumatrensis is projected to increase under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios. Changes in the distribution of alien plants can have a significant impact on the survival of native plants and cause ecosystem disturbance. Therefore, studies on changing distribution of invasive species according to climate change scenarios can provide useful information required to plan conservation strategies and restoration plans for various ecosystems.

기후변화는 곤충의 성장, 발육, 생존, 생식력, 분포범위 등 생활사의 변수들에 영향을 준다. 특히 외래곤충의 경우 생태계 정착 및 확산이 빨라 지고 있으며, 생태계 교란, 토착종 감소 등 생물다양성을 감소시키는 직접적인 원인 중 하나이다. 알팔파바구미는 1990년대 제주도에서 처음 발견 후 남부지방에 대량 발생하여 농업해충으로 인식되었다. 최근 하면처로 이동하는 개체에 의한 밭작물의 피해와 여러 시군에서 서식이 확인되며 확산의 우려되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화가 알팔파바구미에 미치는 영향에 대해 파악하였다. 미래의 기후 시나리오 RCP 4.5와 RCP 8.5에서 알팔파바구미의 잠재적 분포를 추정하기 위해 MaxEnt 모델을 적용하였다. 모형의 변수는 2015~2017년까지 알팔파바구미의 서식이 확인된 66개 지점과 종의 생태특성 및 예측변수간 상관성을 고려한 6개(bio3, bio6, bio10, bio12, bio14, bio16)의 생물기후를 사용하였다. 예측된 모형의 적합 도는 평균 0.765로 잠재력이 의미 있는 값이며, 최고 따뜻한 분기의 평균기온(bio10)이 60~70%로 높은 기여도를 나타냈다. 2050년과 2070년의 시나리오(RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5)에 대한 모형의 결과는 한반도 전역에서 알팔파바구미의 분포 변화를 보여 주었으며, 기온상승에 따른 전국적 확산이 예측되었다.

This study was conducted to predict the changes of potential distribution for invasive alien plant, Amaranthus viridis in Korea. The habitats of A. viridis were roadside, bare ground, farm area, and pasture, where the interference by human was severe. We used maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) for analyzing the environmental influences on A. viridis distribution and projecting on two different representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The results of our study indicated annual mean temperature, elevation and precipitation of coldest month had higher contribution for A. viridis potential distribution. Projected potential distribution of A. viridis will be increased by 110% on RCP 4.5, 470% on RCP 8.5.

This study aims at providing basic data to objectively evaluate the areas suitable for reintroduction of the species of Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) in order to effectively preserve the Asiatic black bears in the Korean protection areas including national parks, and for the species restoration success. To this end, this study predicted the potential habitats in East Asia, Southeast Asia and India, where there are the records of Asiatic black bears’ appearances using the Maxent model and environmental variables related with climate, topography, road and land use. In addition, this study evaluated the effects of the relevant climate and environmental variables. This study also analyzed inhabitation range area suitable for Asiatic black and geographic change according to future climate change. As for the judgment accuracy of the Maxent model widely utilized for habitat distribution research of wildlife for preservation, AUC value was calculated as 0.893 (sd=0.121). This was useful in predicting Asiatic black bears’ potential habitat and evaluate the habitat change characteristics according to future climate change. Compare to the distribution map of Asiatic black bears evaluated by IUCN, Habitat suitability by the Maxent model were regionally diverse in extant areas and low in the extinct areas from IUCN map. This can be the result reflecting the regional difference in the environmental conditions where Asiatic black bears inhabit. As for the environment affecting the potential habitat distribution of Asiatic black bears, inhabitation rate was the highest, according to land coverage type, compared to climate, topography and artificial factors like distance from road. Especially, the area of deciduous broadleaf forest was predicted to be preferred, in comparison with other land coverage types. Annual mean precipitation and the precipitation during the driest period were projected to affect more than temperature’s annual range, and the inhabitation possibility was higher, as distance was farther from road. The reason is that Asiatic black bears are conjectured to prefer more stable area without human’s intervention, as well as prey resource. The inhabitation range was predicted to be expanded gradually to the southern part of India, China’s southeast coast and adjacent inland area, and Vietnam, Laos and Malaysia in the eastern coastal areas of Southeast Asia. The following areas are forecast to be the core areas, where Asiatic black bears can inhabit in the Asian region: Jeonnam, Jeonbuk and Gangwon areas in South Korea, Kyushu, Chugoku, Shikoku, Chubu, Kanto and Tohoku’s border area in Japan, and Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Fujian border area in China. This study is expected to be used as basic data for the preservation and efficient management of Asiatic black bear’s habitat, artificially introduced individual bear’s release area selection, and the management of collision zones with humans.