Dysmicoccus brevipes (Cockerell), Dysmicoccus neobrevipes Beardsley and Pseudococcus longispinus (Targioni-Tozzetti) are widely-distributed pests that feeds on many economically important hosts, particularly tropical fruits and ornamentals. The potential distribution of these mealybug pests into South Korea remains a primary concern because of their high incidence in interceptions screened during inspection. Hence, these species prompted a modelling effort to assess their potential risk of introduction. Potential risk maps were developed for these pests with the CLIMEX model based on occurrence records under environmental data. The potential distribution of these pests in South Korea in the 2020s, 2050s and 2090s was projected based on the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. Results show that D. brevipes, D. neobrevipes and P. longispinus have little potential for invasion in the exterior environment of South Korea due to high cold stress in the 2020s. However, for D. brevipes and P. longispinus, 3 and 86 locations in Jejudo, were predicted to be marginally suitable for this pest under future climate factors, respectively. In that respect, the results of these model predictions could be used to prepare a risk-based surveying program that improves the probability of detecting early D. brevipe, D. neobrevipes and P. longispinus populations.

Climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide are significant factors in ecological risk assessments, suggesting their consideration is required in predicting potential distribution of a invasive species. CLIMEX model is one of species distribution models (SDMs) and provides potential geographical distribution by focusing on climatic effect on species inhabitation. Most SDMs, such as Bioclim, Domain, GARP and MaxEnt, focus on relationship between the occurrences of the species and static environmental covariates, whereas CLIMEX model depends on limitations of species' geographical distribution and reactions to climatic variables at an appropriate temporal scale (called seasonal phenology). In this study, we described the basic concept of CLIMEX and reviewed previous applications. Also, we demonstrated the various utilization of CLIMEX differed by study purposes and methodology for analyzing the model.

Solenopsis geminata has been found in South Korea, suggesting a risk of its invasion has been increased by rapid climate change. This situation requires species distribution modeling to predict possibility of Solenopsis geminata introduction, but information necessary for performing it is very limited. In this study, we developed a map for global distribution of Solenopsis geminata so that the map can be used for future species distribution modeling. Also, as the first step to assess Solenopsis geminata introduction, climatic similarity between its origin (Puerto Rico) and major cities in South Korea was compared. We used ArcMap (version 10.0) for creating the distribution map by obtaining current habitat from public database, and CLIMEX was used to compare climates based on CMI value. The result showed that climates were not similar as indicated by CMI less than 0.52, suggesting the risk of intial introduction is low under the current climatic condition. However, it should be noted that climatic similarity did not consider biological characteristics of Solenopsis geminata and climate change. Thus, the next study will be devoted to climatic suitability simultaneously considers meteorological data, distribution and biological information.

Vespa velutina is a predatory hornet distributing in SouthEastern part of Asia and became invasive in early 2000s; invading into Korea in 2003 and France in 2004. Its distribution pattern showed typical species-invasion curve type with slow progress in the beginning and rapid expansion on ward. We determined the geographic spread of V. velutina with CLIMEX modeling. The model analysis indicates that the ecoclimatic indices (EI) increased as the projection year increased based on RCP8.5 scenario. Then the predicted EI values were further regressed with the field collected data from 2018. Vespa velutina population sizes were estimated from 230 points of sampling over the country and the sampling data were correlated with predicted EI values. The results indicated that partial contribution of the climate factors for its abundance. Also this could be an usual biological indicator of climate change in agroecosystem in Korea. Given the important risk and impact on beekeeping, socio-biological as well as ecosystem and biodiversity levels, careful monitoring of phenology, range expansion and preventive efforts mitigating the impact are further required.

기존 발표된 CLIMEX 매개변수와 RCP 8.5 시나리오에서의 기후자료를 이용하여 우리나라 금지급 과실파리 12종의 국내에서의 향후 기후적합도를 산출하고 국내정착가능 여부를 평가하였다. 열대내지 아열대성인 Anastrepha ludens와 A.obliqua, Zeugodacus cucurbitae, Bactrocera latifrons, B.tryoni, Ceratitis capitata, C.rosa는 모두 2010년대에는 제주도 남부지방 또는 해안가 일부가 경계 지역으로써 정착 가능한 것으로 평가되었다. B.correcta와 B.zonata는 2010년대에 제주 산간을 제외한 전역과 남해안 극히 일부 지역이 경계 지역에 포함되며, B.zonata, B.latifrons의 경우 제주에 적절내지 최적 지역이 형성되었다. 중북부, 내륙에서 이들 종의 기후적합성이 부적절한 것은 주로 저온 스트레스에 의한 것으로써 지구 온난화에 의해 기온이 상승하면서 2090년대에는 경계지역 범위가 해안가를 따라 상승하였다. 한편, B.tsuneonis와 Rhagoletis pomonella는 온대성 과실파리로서 주된 스트레스 요인은 습윤 스트레스였다. B.tsuneonis 는 2010년대부터 국내 산간을 제외한 대부분 지역이 이들 종의 최적 지역에 포함되었으며 그 범위는 점점 확장되었다. R.pomonella는 국내 대부분 지역이 적절 지역으로 평가되나 2050년, 2090년대에는 제주도 산간을 중심으로 정착 부절절 지역의 면적이 확장되었다. 한편, R.indifferens는 국내 중부지역을 중심으로 한 중산간 지역이 경계내지 적절 기후로 평가되나 정착가능 면적은 점차로 좁아져 2090년대에는 산간 극히 일부지역만 경계 지역으로 포함되었다.

Phthorimaea operculella is a pest causing serious damages in worldwide potato cultivation. As climatic factors are considered to be the most crucial on species’ distribution, we tried to compare climatic conditions between a native area of Phthorimaea operculella with cities in South Korea and other areas in Asia based on climatic similarity provided by 'Match Climates' function of CLIMEX software. Even though there is arguing regarding origin of Phthorimaea operculella, we selected Peru and Bolivia as home climate, and compared its climatic similarity to other areas in Asia with application of SRES A1B 2030 climate change scenario. Result showed that South Korea has favorable climatic condition for Phthorimaea operculella. Also, most of Asia except north China and south Russia showed the similar climate suitable for Phthorimaea operculella.