19세기 근대로 가는 길목에서 조선은 외세의 침입이라는 새로운 시대 상황을 맞게 되었다. 이러한 외압(外壓)에 대응하는 데 가장 근본이 되었 던 것이 당시는 수군(水軍)이라 불렸던 조선 해군(海軍)의 군사력이었고 할 수 있다. 이러한 인식을 바탕으로 본 연구는 19세기 조선 해군 전력 의 일단(一端)을 살펴볼 수 있는 실증적 사례 연구를 진행하였다. 구체적 으로 전라좌수영(全羅左水營)에 속해 있던 광양현(光陽縣)과 경상우수영 (慶尙右水營)에 속해 있던 하동부(河東府)의 수군 전력의 실태를 파악하 고자 하였다. 이들 두 군현은 19세기 ‘중기(重記)’ 자료가 남아 있다. 중 기 자료는 작성 당시 지방 군현의 군비 실태를 파악할 수 있는 가장 좋 은 자료이다. 따라서 이 중기 자료를 중심으로 19세기 조선 해군 전력의 일단을 살펴보았다. 이와 더불어 각종 관찬 자료와 읍지(邑誌), 사례(事 例) 등을 비교 검토하였다. 이 연구를 통해 19세기 조선 해군 전력의 일 단을 확인하였다. 당시 조선 정부는 해양 방위[海防]에 상당한 관심을 가 지고 있었지만 이에 대응한 해군 전력의 향상은 적절히 이루어지지 못한 것으로 보인다. 이는 본 연구를 통해 일부 확인되는 것처럼 특히 지방 군현의 수군 전력은 형식적 전력을 유지하는 데 그쳤고, 그 실제는 전력 이 약화되고 있었던 것으로 여겨진다.

The objective of this study was to predict land use change based on the land use change scenarios for the Hwangguji river watershed, South Korea. The land use change scenario was derived from the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The CLUE (conversion of land use and its effects) model was used to simulate the land use change. The CLUE is the modeling framework to simulate land use change considering empirically quantified relations between land use types and socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors through dynamical modeling. The Hwangguji river watershed, South Korea was selected as study area. Future land use changes in 2040, 2070, and 2100 were analyzed relative to baseline (2010) under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Binary logistic regressions were carried out to identify the relation between land uses and its driving factors. CN (Curve number) and impervious area based on the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were calculated and analyzed using the results of future land use changes. The land use change simulation of the RCP4.5 scenario resulted that the area of urban was forecast to increase by 12% and the area of forest was estimated to decrease by 16% between 2010 and 2100. The land use change simulation of the RCP8.5 scenario resulted that the area of urban was forecast to increase by 16% and the area of forest was estimated to decrease by 18% between 2010 and 2100. The values of Kappa and multiple resolution procedure were calculated as 0.61 and 74.03%. CN (Ⅲ) and impervious area were increased by 0-1 and 0-8% from 2010 to 2100, respectively. The study findings may provide a useful tool for estimating the future land use change, which is an important factor for the future extreme flood.

Land cover and land use change data are important in many studies including climate change and hydrological studies. Although the various theories and models have been developed, it is difficult to identify the driving factors of the land use change because land use change is related to policy options and natural and socio-economic conditions. This study is to attempt to simulate the land cover change using the CLUE model based on a statistical analysis of land-use change. CLUE model has dynamic modeling tools from the competition among land use change in between driving force and land use, so that this model depends on statistical relations between land use change and driving factors. In this study, Yongin, Icheon and Anseong were selected for the study areas, and binary logistic regression and factor analysis were performed verifying with ROC curve. Land cover probability map was also prepared to compare with the land cover data and higher probability areas are well matched with the present land cover demonstrating CLUE model applicability.