해상에서 해양사고를 예방하고 선박의 통항안전성을 증대시키기 위해 연안 VTS와 항행보조시설이 적극 검토되고 있다. 그러나 이러한 시설의 설치에는 막대한 비용과 예산이 든다. 따라서 연안해역에 통항 위험성을 평가하여 우선순위를 결정해야하고 통항 위험성평가는 조선자의 관점에서 평가되어야 한다. 한편, 인간의 사고에는 많은 형태의 애매함이 존재하기 때문에 이러한 애매함을 반영하기 위해 본 연구에서는 퍼지로직과 쇼케적분을 이용하여 연안해역의 선박 통항안전성을 평가하였다. 본 연구의 목적은 퍼지로직과 쇼케적분을 이용하여 조선부담감을 고려할 수 있는 평가모델을 개발하고 우리나라 연안해역을 8개로 나누고 연안 VTS와 항행보조시설 설치의 우선순위를 결정하기 위한 평가를 실시하였다.

최근 해양사고를 예방하기 위해 다양한 정책과 대응방안이 개발되고 있다. 연안해역에 항행안전성을 증가시키기 위해서 항행안전성은 조선자의 관점에서 평가되어야 한다. 항행 안전성 평가와 같은 문제에 있어 인간의 사고에는 많은 형태의 애매함이 존재한다. 이러한 평가에서 애매함을 반영하기 위해 본 연구에서는 퍼지척도와 쇼케적분을 소개하였다. 본 연구의 목적은 퍼지척도와 쇼케적분을 이용하여 조선부담감의 관점에서 평가모델을 개발하였다. 그리고 본 연구에서는 우리나라 연안해역을 8개로 나누고 연안 VTS와 항행보조시설 설치의 우선순위를 결정하기 위한 평가를 실시하였다. 그 결과 목포, 여수, 포항, 인천, 부산, 거제, 군산, 동해근해 해역순으로 안전성이 낮게 평가되었다.

In recent years, the marine traffic congestion has increased due to the expansion of vessel traffic volume in Korean coastal waterway. Heavy traffic could bring serious marine casualties which cause the loss of human lives, properties and marine pollution in coastal area. The prevention of marine accidents has been a major topic in marin society and various policies and countermeasures have been developed, applied to the industries. VTS(Vessel Traffic Services) is considered as one of effective method to promote marine safety but it needs relatively huge amount of budgets to build and also number of personnels for the operation. Thus prior to establishing the VTS. It should be surveyed the marine traffics, general conditions of waterway including geographical, meteorological characteristics and assessed to find the most reasonable area and places for the system. Therefore this paper aims to develop the method for this evaluation through the hierarchical evaluation structure model in connection with ISM(interpretive structural modeling) and AHP(analytic hierarchy process) methods. The model in this paper is applied to 4 coastal area in Korean waterway as candidates and found that the priority for the needs of VTS should be in order such as Yosu, Wando, Mokpo, Geoje coastal area.

해상에서 해양사고를 예방하고 통항안전성을 증대시키기 위해 연안 VTS와 항행보조시설이 적극 검토되고 있으나 막대한 비용과 예산이 든다. 따라서 연안해역에 통항 안전성을 평가하여 우선순위를 결정해야하고 통항 안전성평가는 조선자의 관점에서 평가되어야 한다. 한편, 인간의 사고에는 많은 형태의 애매함이 존재하기 때문에 이러한 애매함을 반영하기 위해 본 연구에서는 퍼지측도와 쇼케적분을 이용하였다. 본 연구의 목적은 퍼지측도와 쇼케적분을 이용하여 조선부담감의 관점에서 평가모델을 개발하고 우리나라 연안해역을 8개로 나누고 연안 VTS와 항행보조시설 설치의 우선순위를 결정하기 위한 평가를 실시하였다.

Marine Casualties cause the loss of hmm lives, properties and marine pollution. The prevention of marine accidents has been a major topic in marine society and various policies and countermeasures have been developed, applied to the industries. The coastal VTS and navigational aids are considered as one of the effective methods to promote marine safety but they need relatively huge amount of budgets to build. Thus prior to establishing these coastal VTS and navigational aids, it should be evaluated the navigational safety level in the coastal waterways in concern. So far as human beings are concerned, there are many types of fuzziness in the evaluation of navigational safety level. In order to reflect these fuzziness on this evaluation, this paper introduces the fuzzy measure and integral to represent the fuzziness in the evaluation process. Therefore this paper aims to develop the method for this evaluation using the fuzzy measure and integral. In this paper, Korean coastal area is divided into 8 sectors and evaluated the priority for the needs of coastal VTS and navigational aids. The results are found as order as Mokpo, Yosu, Pohang, Busan, Inchon, Geoje, Gunsan, Donghae coastal area.

From the point of view of safety of life and property at sea and the protection of the marine environment, the Vessel Traffic Management System along the Korea coastal waterway is inevitably introduced. But the establishing priority per area must be evaluated under the restricted budget. In this case, the estimated traffic flow has a major effect on priority evaluation. In the former paper <I>, an algorithm was proposed for estimating the trip distribution between each pair of zones such as harbours and straits. This paper aims to formulate a simulation model for estimating the dynamic traffic flow per area in the Korea coastal waterway. The model consists of the algorithm constrined by the statistical movement of ships and the observed data, the regression analysis and the traffic network evaluations. The processed results of traffic flow except fishing vessel are summarized as follows ; 1) In 2000, the traffic congestions per area are estimated, in proportion of ship's number (tonnage), as Busan area 22.3%(44.5%), Yeosu area 19.8%(11.2%), Wando-Jeju area18.1%(6.8%), Mokpo area 14.9%(9.9%), Gunsan area 9.1%(9.3%), Inchon area 8.1%(7.7%), Pohang area 5.5%(8.5%), and Donghae area 2.2%(2.1%). 2) For example in Busan area, the increment of traffic volume per annum is estimated 4, 102 ships (23 million tons) and the traffic flow in 2000 is evaluated 158, 793 ships (687 million tons). 3) consequently, the increment of traffic volume in Busan area is found the largest and followed by Yeosu, Wando-Jeju area. Also, the traffic flow per area in 2000 has the same order.

Generally, the development of shipping is characterized by the amount of traffic flow (traffic volume) and seaborne cargo in the sea. Movement of ships is an essential element of constructing the traffic flow which is represented the dynamic movement of ships in the sea, but on the other band the numbers of arriving and departing the port is the basic factor consisting of the static movement of ships. The amount of cargoes by coastal vessels and ocean trade vessels have increased tremendously with the great growth of the Korean economy these days. This increase of the seaborne cargoes has made the Korean coastal traffic flow so congested that this can be a cause of large pollution as well as great marine casualities such as a loss of human lives and properties . And also the future coastal traffic is expected to increase considerably according to our economic development and high dependence upon foreign trade. Under the circumstance, to devise the safety of coastal traffic flow and to take a proper step of a efficient navigation, there is a necessity for analyzing and surveying the coastal traffic trend and the characteristics of cargo movement. In order to grasp the dynamic movement of ships in the Korean coast, O/D analysis is executed. This paper aims to secure the basic data necessary for a comprehensive plan and estimation of vessel traffic management system for the enhancement of safety, order and efficiency of vessel traffic in the Korean coast. The analyzed results of the traffic flow and seaborne cargoes of the Korean coast are summarized as follows : 1) The congestion by the vessels occurred around the ports such as-in proportion of ship's number (proportion of tonnage) -Incheon 18.5%(14.8%), Pohang 5.9% (9.9%), Samil 5.2%(8.3%), Mokpo 8.6%(0.8%), Pusan 13.5%(36.4%), Ulsan 9.1%(16.2%). 2) It is found that the area adjacent to Incheon, Pusan, Ulsan, Channel of Hanryu and South-western area are heavily congested. 3) It is confirmed thatthe area adjacent to Incheon, Pusan, Ulsan, Channel of Hanryu and South-western area are heavily congested. 3) It is confirmed that the coastal vessels are main elements constituting the coastal traffic and that there are much traffic flow among five ports as following through the precise O/D analysis of ship's coastal movement. Incheon-Samil, Ulsan, Pusan, Jeju Pusan -Samil, Ulsan, Incheon, Jeju Pohang -Samil, Inchoen, Jeju Pohang -Samil, Incheon, Jeju Ulsan -Samil, Incheon, Jeju Samil -Ulsan, Pusan, Incheon 4) The amount of cargoes to abroad are in proportion about 81% of total and the amount of coastal cargoes are about 19%. Of those, cargoes in and out to Japan are about 26% and to South-east Asia are about 27%. 5) The chief items of foreign cargoes are oil(38.33%), iron ore(13.98%), bituminoous coal(12.74%), grain(8.02%), lumber(6.45%) in the import cargoes and steel material(21.96%), cement(17.16%), oil(6.81%), fertilizer(3.80%) in the export cargoes. 6) The 80.5% of total export cargoes and 92.4% of total import cargoes are flowed in five main ports. 7) The chief items of coastal cargoes are oil (42.45%), cement(16.86%), steel material (6.49%), anthracite(6.31%), mineral product(4.3%), grain, and fertilizer. Almost 92.24% of total import and export oil cargoes in Korea is loaded and unloaded at the port of Samil & Ulsan.