The Severe Disaster Punishment Act had recently been established in order to promote safety and health (OSH) management system for severe accident prevention. OSH management system is primarily designed based on risk assessments; however, companies in industries have been experiencing difficulties in hazard identification and selecting proper measures for risk assessments and accident prevention. This study intended to introduce an accident analysis method based on epidemiological model in finding hazard and preventive measures. The accident analysis method employed in this study was proposed by the U.S. Department of Energy. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the accident analysis method, this study applied it to two accident cases occurred in construction and manufacturing industries. The application process and results of this study can be utilized in improving OSH management system and preventing severe accidents.

PURPOSES : This study aims to analyze the efficiency of the safety and management of private highways. METHODS : Variables were selected based on the data and performance related to the safety of 18 private highways. The appropriateness of operations management was reviewed using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) analysis. Items with a scope for improvement were reviewed and adjustment measures were presented. RESULTS : To increase safety management efficiency, the degree of reduction in personnel and operating expenses was presented based on the relative efficiency group. CONCLUSIONS : It is necessary to adjust the appropriate management organization and operating costs according to the characteristics of each route. Moreover, the limitations of the study and possible improvements were presented.

PURPOSES : This study aims to conduct a sensitivity analysis to determine the major factors affecting traffic accidents involving elderly pedestrians. METHODS : In this study, a regression tree model was built based on a non-parametric statistical model using data on traffic accidents involving elderly pedestrians. Using this model, we analyzed the degree of change in the probability of pedestrian fatalities. RESULTS : Results of the model analysis show that the first major factor combination affecting traffic accidents involving elderly pedestrians is speeding, night time, and road markers. The second combination is night time and arterial roads (national and local highways). The last combination that may lead to such accidents is heavy vehicles and federally funded local highways. CONCLUSIONS : Preventive measures, such as speed control, proper lighting, median strips, designation of pedestrian protection zones, and guidance of detours, are necessary to manage high-risk combinations causing accidents of the elderly.

The organic complexing agents such as ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA), nitrilotriacetic acid (NTA), and isosaccharinic acid (ISA) can enhance the radionuclides’ solubility and have the potential to induce the acceleration of radionuclides’ mobility to a far-field from the radioactive waste repository. Hence, it is essential to evaluate the effect of organic complexing agents on radionuclide solubility through experimental analysis under similar conditions to those at the radioactive waste disposal site. In this study, five radionuclides (cesium, cobalt, strontium, iodine, and uranium) and three organic complexing agents (EDTA, NTA, and ISA) were selected as model substances. To simulate environmental conditions, the groundwater was collected near the repository and applied for solubility experiments. The solubility experiments were carried out under various ranges of pHs (7, 9, 11, and 13), temperatures (10°C, 20°C, and 40°C), and concentrations of organic complexing agents (0, 10-5, 10-4, 10-3, and 10-2 M). Experimental results showed that the presence of organic complexing agents significantly increased the solubility of the radionuclides. Cobalt and strontium had high solubility enhancement factors, even at low concentrations of organic complexing agents. We also developed a support vector machine (SVM) model using some of the experimental data and validated it using the rest of the solubility data. The root mean square error (RMSE) in the training and validation sets was 0.012 and 0.016, respectively. The SVM model allowed us to estimate the solubility value under untested conditions (e.g., pH 12, temperature 30°C, ISA 5×10-4 M). Therefore, our experimental solubility data and the SVM model can be used to predict radionuclide solubility and solubility enhancement by organic complexing agents under various conditions.

LILW disposal repository in Gyeongju, South Korea is considered with a concrete mixture that uses Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) partially substituted with supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs). The degradation of cementitious materials that result from chemical and physical attacks is a major concern in the safety of radioactive waste disposal. We present a reactive transport model utilized as one of the geochemical simulation approaches for the timescales of concern that range from hundreds to thousands of years. The purpose of this study is to investigate the sensitivity of parameters in concrete disposal systems and to evaluate the influence of various assumptions on the chemical degradation of the systems using a reactive transport model. A reactive transport model in the concrete disposal vault was developed to evaluate the behavior of engineered barriers composed of cementitious materials. The sensitivity analysis was performed using reactive transport models through the coupling between COMSOL and PHREEQC. The databases selected for the analysis are the Thermochimie database presented by ANDRA. Among many variables considered, two variables that can highly affect chemical degradation were selected for detailed sensitivity analysis for dealing with uncertainties. This is important because the chemical degradation mechanism is generally sensitive to precipitation and diffusion coefficient. The first factor is precipitation, which might be the most important factor in chemical degradation because it acts as a calcium leaching of cementitious materials in a disposal system in a highly alkaline environment, increasing the porosity of the system. To predict the change in annual precipitation, the measurement of the precipitation observatory station in the nearest area of Gyeongju for the past 80 years was collected. The second factor is the diffusion coefficient, which plays an essential role in the durability of the concrete disposal system, promoting the decalcification of cementitious minerals, accelerating system degradation, and increasing the porosity of its system, thereby facilitating the migration of radionuclides. The diffusion coefficient values used in studies similar to this work were calculated and evaluated using the box-and-whisker method. The results of the sensitivity analyses for the reactive transport model in the concrete disposal system will be presented. The sensitivity cases show that the results obtained are much more sensitive to changes in transport parameters.

Spent nuclear fuels should be safely stored until being disposed and dry storage system is predominantly used to retain the fuels. During long-term storage, there are several mechanisms that could result in the degradation of spent nuclear fuels, and the temperature is the most important parameter to predict and estimate the degradation behaviors. Therefore, thermal analysis to estimate temperatures of spent nuclear fuel and the storage system should be performed to evaluate whether the temperatures exceed safety limit. Recently, thermal hydraulic analysis with CFD codes is widely used to investigate the temperature of spent nuclear fuel in dry storage. Herein, Explicit CFD analysis model is introduced and validated by estimating the thermal hydraulic response of the dry storage system that is Dry Cask Simulator (DCS). Extended Storage Collaborating Program (ESCP) led by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) is organized to assess degradation effects of spent nuclear fuel during long-term dry storage, and DCS is the first phase of the program. The dry storage system, containing a single BWR assembly in a canister, was designed to produce validation-quality data for thermal analysis model. ANSYS FLUENT is used to simulate DCS, and the test condition of 0.5 kW decay heat and 100 kPa helium pressure was investigated in this study. In case of peak cladding temperature (PCT), PCT from the experiment was 376 K while that of CFD was 374 K. It implies CFD simulation gives good agreement with experimental measurement. Peak temperatures of channel can, basket, canister and shell predicted by CFD simulation also show good prediction and the discrepancies were less than 7 K while measurements uncertainty was 7 K.

The damage ratio of Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) is a very important intermediate variable for dry storage risk assessment which require an interdisciplinary and comprehensive investigation. It is known that the pinch load applied to the cladding can lead to Mode-3 failure and the cladding becomes more vulnerable to this failure mode with the existence of radial hydrides and other forms of mechanical defects. In this study, a sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the importance of the damage parameters that need to be calibrated for the simulation of zircaloy-4 cladding failure using computational mechanics. The simulation model was generated from a microscopic image of the cladding with hydride. The image segmentation method was used to separate the Zircaloy-4, hydride, and hydride- Zircaloy matrix interfaces to create a pixel-based finite element model. The ring compression test (RCT) was simulated because the resistance of the cladding under pinch load can be evaluated by this test. It was assumed that the damage starts with the formation and growth of voids or small cracks in the material, which grow and combine to form larger cracks, eventually leading to the complete fracture of the material. Therefore, the ductile damage criterion was applied to all materials to simulate crack formation and propagation. The sensitivity analysis was performed based on the design of experiments using L8 orthogonal array. The effects of five factors on the fracture resistance of hydrided cladding were quantified, and they are the fracture strains describing the damage initiation in zircaloy-4 matrix, hydride, and hydride-zirconium matrix, and yield stress and Young’s modulus for hydride-zirconium matrix. Information on those parameters are hardly available in literature and experimental data which enable the estimation of those are also very rare. It is planned to build a computational model which can accurately simulate the fracture behavior of hydrided cladding by calibrating significant fracture parameters using reverse engineering. The results of this study will help to figure out those significant parameters.

현재의 해양산업의 기술은 스마트 선박 및 자율운항선박 등의 개발과 같은 자율화 및 지능화와 환경규제의 강화에 맞추어 선 박의 운항 효율성을 개선하는 친환경 선박을 위한 기술이 함께 개발되고 있다. 이러한 흐름에 맞추어, 세계각국에서는 선박의 안전운항을 보장하는 선에서 선박운항효율을 극대화하기 위해 다양한 방식으로 노력하고 있다. 본 연구에서는, 현존하는 선박운항효율 개선 기술이 운항 당시의 기상환경, 선박조종 등의 선박운항상태를 실시간으로 반영하지 못하는 문제를 개선하기 위해, 선박에서 수집한 선박운항데 이터를 활용하여 실시간 선박운항효율 분석모델을 개발하고자 한다. 본 연구의 실시간 선박운항효율 분석모델은 연료소모를 기준으로 판 단한 선박운항효율과 당시의 선박운항상태를 감안하여 판단한 선박운항효율을 비교하여, 식별된 선박운항효율의 타당성을 확인할 수 있 는 모델이다. 분석의 주요 내용은 대상선박의 선정과 선박운항데이터의 수집, 선박운항효율 특성과 선박운항상태 특성의 구분, 그리고 이 를 활용한 분류모델의 개발을 포함한다. 연구의 결과는 기존의 선박운항효율과 항해 당시 선박운항상태를 감안한 운항효율을 제시하여 선박 운항자의 의사결정을 지원하여 운항효율을 개선하고자 한다.

PURPOSES : The primary purpose of this study is to develop a framework for predicting the demand and distribution of pedestrians when an open space zone is built at the top through the undergroundization of the Gyeongin Expressway. METHODS : After analyzing the current status through a survey on the number of people, students, surrounding traffic volume, and future socioeconomic indicators, the rate of change in the floating population and the rate of increase and decrease in the traffic volume of pedestrians were calculated to evaluate the effect. In addition, microscopic analysis results were derived by setting a pedestrian analysis zone (PAZ). A walking environment index (WEI) was developed that can quantitatively evaluate the degree of walking activation by indicating walking-related surrounding environmental factors. Based on this, a walking demand prediction model was developed. In addition, the results were validated by calculating the walking volume through a micro-simulation in/around the open space zone. RESULTS : The number of crosswalks and schools, transit development indicators, and pedestrian volume increased as the WEI value increased. However, the log form of the distance was observed to be a factor that reduced walking. CONCLUSIONS : This study attempted to reliably predict the demand for walking on the Gyeongin Expressway by calculating the amount of induced walking and the amount of passing walking. The pedestrian demand can be boosted by improving walking environments.

In a group-testing method, instead of testing a sample, for example, blood individually, a batch of samples are pooled and tested simultaneously. If the pooled test is positive (or defective), each sample is tested individually. However, if negative (or good), the test is terminated at one pooled test because all samples in the batch are negative. This paper considers a queueing system with a two-stage group-testing policy. Samples arrive at the system according to a Poisson process. The system has a single server which starts a two-stage group test in a batch whenever the number of samples in the system reaches exactly a predetermined size. In the first stage, samples are pooled and tested simultaneously. If the pooled test is negative, the test is terminated. However, if positive, the samples are divided into two equally sized subgroups and each subgroup is applied to a group test in the second stage, respectively. The server performs pooled tests and individual tests sequentially. The testing time of a sample and a batch follow general distributions, respectively. In this paper, we derive the steady-state probability generating function of the system size at an arbitrary time, applying a bulk queuing model. In addition, we present queuing performance metrics such as the offered load, output rate, allowable input rate, and mean waiting time. In numerical examples with various prevalence rates, we show that the second-stage group-testing system can be more efficient than a one-stage group-testing system or an individual-testing system in terms of the allowable input rates and the waiting time. The two-stage group-testing system considered in this paper is very simple, so it is expected to be applicable in the field of COVID-19.

To mitigate the environmental impacts of the energy sector, the government of South Korea has made a continuous effort to facilitate the development and commercialization of renewable energy. As a result, the efficiency of renewable energy plants is not a consideration in the potential site selection process. To contribute to the overall sustainability of this increasingly important sector, this study utilizes the Black-Scholes model to evaluate the economic value of potential sites for off-site wind farms, while analyzing the environmental mitigation of these potential sites in terms of carbon emission reduction. In order to incorporate the importance of flexibility and uncertainty factors in the evaluation process, this study has developed a site evaluation model focused on system dynamics and real option approaches that compares the expected revenue and expected cost during the life cycle of off-site wind farm sites. Using sensitivity analysis, this study further investigates two uncertainty factors (namely, investment cost and wind energy production) on the economic value and carbon emission reduction of potential wind farm locations.

과학과 기술의 발달로 복합재료, 합금, 고강도 탄소섬유, 고분자 재료 등 지능형 소재가 개발되고 있다. 다양한 엔지 니어링 분야에서 이러한 첨단 재료의 응용을 연구하기 위해 전 세계적으로 광범위한 연구가 진행되고 있다. 초탄성 형상기억합 금(SSMA)은 깃발 모양의 히스테리시스 거동을 가지며 추가적인 열처리 없이 응력 완화로 인한 잔류 변형이 거의 없는 신뢰성 이 높은 내진 재료이다. 그러나 공학 문제에서 SSMA 효율성을 연구하기 위한 수치 모델의 개발은 여전히 어려운 작업이다. 본 연구에서는 SSMA 인장시험의 실험결과를 통해 유한요소해석 프로그램인 Abaqus와 수치해석 프로그램인 OpenSEES를 이용하여 재료 모델을 구현한 후 해석결과의 거동 특성 및 에너지 소산을 분석하였다.

PURPOSES : To efficiently manage pavements, a systematic pavement management system must be established based on regional characteristics. Suppose that the future conditions of a pavement section can be predicted based on data obtained at present. In this case, a more reasonable road maintenance strategy should be established. Hence, a prediction model of the annual surface distress (SD) change for national highway pavements in Gangwon-do, Korea is developed based on influencing factors. METHODS : To develop the model, pavement performance data and influencing factors were obtained. Exploratory data analysis was performed to analyze the data acquired, and the results show that the data were preprocessed. The variables used for model development were selected via correlation analysis, where variables such as surface distress, international roughness index, daily temperature range, and heat wave days were used. Best subset regression was performed, where the candidate model was selected from all possible subsets based on certain criteria. The final model was selected based on an algorithm developed for rational model selection. The sensitivity of the annual SD change was analyzed based on the variables of the final model. RESULTS : The result of the sensitivity analysis shows that the annual SD change is affected by the variables in the following order: surface distress ˃ heat wave days ˃ daily temperature range ˃ international roughness index. CONCLUSIONS : An annual SD change prediction model is developed by considering the present performance, traffic volume, and climatic conditions. The model can facilitate the establishment of a reasonable road maintenance strategy. The prediction accuracy can be improved by obtaining additional data, such as the construction quality, material properties, and pavement thickness.

본 연구의 목적은 과거 12년(2010~2021년)간 발생한 상선의 충돌사고 668건을 조사하여 충돌의 원인요인을 조사하고 이를 통계 적으로 분석하여 항해사의 인적과실 예방 충돌회피(HEPCA) 모델을 제안하는 것이다. 중앙해양안전심판원의 통계연보 및 충돌사건 재결서 를 조사하여 상선의 충돌 원인요인 데이터를 수집하고 통계분석 도구인 SPSS를 이용하여 빈도분석을 수행하였다. 1단계 분석으로 상선 충 돌사고 668건을 대상으로 충돌원인을 분석하였고, 2단계 분석에서는 식별된 최대빈도 원인요인을 세부적으로 분석하였다. 분석결과, 충돌 원인은 항해사의 인적과실이 98 %인 것으로 식별되었으며, 빈도 높은 요인 순서는 경계소홀 〉항행법규위반 〉조선 부적절 순이었다. 경계 소홀의 원인 요인은 주로 상대선 초인 후 지속감시 소홀이었으며 상대선박의 존재를 인식하지 못한 원인은 주로 당직시간에 다른 작업을 한 요인이었다. 분석결과를 적용하여 인적과실 예방을 위한 HEPCA 모델을 제안하였고, 이를 재결서의 충돌사건에 적용해보았다. 본 연구결과는 해기사 교육기관 및 실무에서 항해사의 인적과실로 발생하는 충돌사고를 방지하기 위한 교육 자료로 활용이 가능할 것으로 기대된다.

생물다양성협약(CBD)에서는 전 지구적으로 발생하는 환경문제의 대응방안으로 육상의 17%를 보호지역으로 지정 하도록 할 것을 권고하고 있다. 우리나라도 국제적 수준에 맞춰 보호지역을 지정하고 보호지역 지정이 가지는 의미를 설명할 필요성이 생겼으며, 이에 따라 생태계서비스에 관한 연구의 필요성이 요구되고 있다. 우리나라는 보호지역 지정을 자연공원법에 의해 위계별로 국립공원, 도립공원, 군립공원으로 지정하고 있다. 그러나 정치, 행정적 측면이 우선시되면서 생태계서비스 가치평가 연구 및 서식지 관리가 국립공원에 편중되어 도립 및 군립공원은 다소 미비하여 연구의 필요성이 있다. 본 연구에서는 국립공원에 비해 서식지 관리 및 생태계서비스 가치평가 연구가 미비한 가지산도 립공원을 대상으로 InVEST 모델 중 InVEST Habitat Quality 모델을 사용하여 서식지 질을 평가하고, 분석 결과를 16개의 산악형 국립공원과 비교하였다. 분석 결과 가지산도립공원의 서식지질 값은 0.83이었으며, 주변 지역에 비해 서식질 질이 높게 나타났다. 3개 지구별 서식지질 차이를 분석한 결과 통도사지구와 내원사지구가 0.84, 석남사지구가 0.83으로 나타났고 용도지구별로는 자연보존지구, 자연환경지구, 문화유산지구, 공원마을지구 순으로 서식지질 값이 높게 나타났다. 기존 국립공원 서식지질 분석 결과와 비교한 결과 가지산도립공원은 무등산국립공원 수준의 자연성을 나타내었다. 이러한 결과는 추후 도립공원의 생물다양성 보전 및 생태계서비스 증진을 위한 정책 수립과 관리방안 수립의 객관적인 자료로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

To obtain confidence in the safety of disposal facilities for radioactive waste, it is essential to quantitatively evaluate the performance of the waste disposal facilities by using safety assessment models. Thus, safety assessment models require uncertainty management as a key part of the confidencebuilding process. In application to the numerical modelling, the global sensitivity analysis is widely employed for dealing with parametric and conceptual uncertainties. In particular, the parametric uncertainty can be effectively reduced by minimizing the uncertainty of critical parameters in the safety assessment model. In this paper, the numerical model of each step disposal facility (Silo, Near surface, and Trench type) at Wolsong Low and Immediate Level Waste (LILW) Disposal Center is designed by using a two-dimensional finite element code (COMSOL Multiphysics). In order to determine the critical parameters for non-adsorbed nuclides such as H-3, C-14, Tc-99, we introduced the variance-based sensitivity analysis methodology of the global sensitivity analysis. In the case of Silo type, the density of waste is highly sensitive to the total leakage quantity of all nuclides. Additionally, the initial nuclide concentration of H-3 was identified as another important parameter of H-3. On the other hands, the mass transport coefficient showed a high contribution in C-14 and Tc-99. In other types of disposal facilities, the leaking properties of H-3 are significantly affected by the amount of infiltration water. However, C-14 and Tc-99 were found to be more sensitive to the density of waste.