Recently many countries agreed to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere or at least to keep them at the current level at the Kyoto Protocol. Carbon dioxide has been proven to be 80% of greenhouse gases, contributing to the increase of the earth’s surface temperature. It is reported that half of the CO2 emissions are produced by industry and power plants using fossil fuels. In this article, we review and analysis domestic and abroad R&D policy trends relating to UN framework convention on climate change(UNFCCC).

최근 온실기체의 증가로 인한 극기상현상의 발생빈도가 증가할 것으로 예상된다. 본 연구에서는 이미 연구된 여러가지 GCM 모의결과와 마코프 연쇄를 이용하여 기후변화를 고려한 수문자료의 모의발생을 실시하였다. 또 적절한 지수를 이용하여 미래시점의 가뭄과 홍수 발생의 변동 가능폭을 예측하였다. 그 결과 시나리오에 따라 극심한 가뭄과 홍수의 발생빈도가 증가할 것으로 예상되어 현재 상태보다 수자원의 계획과 관리에 많은 어려움이 닥칠 것으로 보인다. 향후 수자원

온실기체의 증가에 따른 기후변화로 인해 유역에서의 물순환이 과거와는 다른 패턴을 보이고 있다. 그러나 현재의 수자원 계획 및 관리에는 기후변화의 영향이 포함되어 있지 않다. 이에 본 연구에서는 기후변화의 영향이 유역의 물순환에 어떻게 영향을 주는지를 검토하였다. 본 연구는 기존의 여러 가지 배증 상태의 GCM(General Circulation Model) 모의결과를 이용하여 기온 및 강수량 자료를 Markov 연쇄에 의해 모의발생 하였다. 또 강우-유

본 연구는 기후변화가 유역의 유출량과 수자원에 미치는 영향을 조사하고 평가하는데 목적이 있다. 이를 위하여 먼저, YONU GCM의 제한실험과 점증실험을 실시하여 전구적 규모의 기후변화 시나리오를 작성하였으며, 통계학적 축소기법과 추계학적 일기발생기법을 이용하여 대상지점의 일 수문기상 시계열을 모의하였다. 이렇게 얻은 시계열자료를 2CO2 상황에서의 유출량자료로 변환하기 위해 준 분포형 강우-유출 모형인 SLURP 모형에 입력하였다. 본 연구에서는 이

Through data analysis using the meteorological data during 40 years(1961～2000) for 2 stations(Daegu and Chupungnyong), we studied the present condition and long-term trends in urban climatic environments of Daegu. It was found that there was about 1.5℃ rise in annual mean temperature of Daegu from 1961 to 2000. On the other hand, that of Chupungnyung was not more than 0.4℃ for the same period. The regional disparity in temperature changes has been caused by the difference of urban effects on climate between two regions. In particular, the urban warming appears more significant in winter season. There was about 3℃ rise in annual mean daily minimum temperature of winter season(Dec.～Feb.) in Daegu. As the result, the number of winter days continuously decreased from 115 days(1961) to 75 days(2000). The long-term trends of relative humidity were also studied to exame the effects of urbanization on climate in Daegu. It was found that there was about 7% decrease in relative humidity of Daegu during past 40 years(1961～2000). On the other side, the decrease of Chupungnyung was not more than 2% for the same period. The ong-term trends of the other climatic factors(fog days, tropical night days, etc) were also studied in this study.

대기순환모형(GCM)에 의하면 온실가스농도의 증가는 전구와 국지규모의 기후변화에 중요한 관련이 있음이 알려져 있다. GCM은 단일지점의 기상학적 순환과정을 분석하는데는 불확실성을 지니고 있기 때문에 현재로서는 축소기법이 대기순환모형(GCM)의 개발자들이 제공할 수 있는 것과 모형을 이용하여 기후영향을 평가하는 연구자들이 요구하는 것 사이의 차이점을 연계하기 위해 이용되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 통계학적 축소기법을 이용하여 국지 규모의 기후변화의 영향을 평

We developed a numerical model that considered the influences on the thermal environment of vegetation, water surfaces and buildings to predict micro climatic changes in a few km2 scales; and applied this model to the Mino residential development region in Osaka Prefecture by using a nested technique. The calculated temperatures and winds in the residential development region reasonably agreed with the observed ones. We then investigated the influences on the thermal environment of the construction of a dam, the change of the green coverage rate. The results obtained from the numerical simulations were qualitatively reasonable.

Through numerical experiment using simplified OSU-ID PBL(Oregon State University One-Dimensional Planetary Boundary Layer) model and field measurement, we studied the impacts of vegetation canopy on heat island that was one of the characteristics of local climate in urban area. It was found that if the fraction of vegetation was extended by 10 percent, the maximum air temperature and the maximum ground temperature can come down about 0.9℃, 2.3℃, respectively. Even though the field measurement was done under a little unstable atmospheric condition, the canopy air temperature was lower in the daytime, and higher at night than the air and ground temperature. This result suggests that the extention of vegetation canopy can bring about more pleasant local climate by causing the oasis, the shade and the blanket effect.

본 연구는 기후 변화가 수자원 시스템에 미치는 영향에 대한 최근의 연구 동향을 살펴보고, 그 중의 한 기법을 미국의 Skagit 시스템에 실례로 적용해 보았다. 적용된 기법에서는, 기후변화로 인하여 Skagit 시스템의 월별 유입량의 평균과 분산이 5% 증가한다고 가정하였다. 평균과 분산이 변화한 각각의 경우에 대하여 월별 운영률을 추계학적 동적 계획법으로 구하고 기후 변화가 없다고 가정한 경우의 운영률과 비교하였다. 그 결과 Skagit 시스템의 월별

The atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is ever-increasing and expected to reach about 600 ppmv some time during next century. Such an increase of CO2 may cause a warming of the earth's surface of 1.5 to 4.5~circC , resulting in great changes in natural and agricultural ecosystems. The climatic scenario under doubled CO2 projected by general circulation model of Goddard Institute for Space Studies(GISS) was adopted to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on agroclimatic resources, net primary productivity and rice productivity in Korea. The annual mean temperature was expected to rise by 3.5 to 4.0~circC and the annual precipitation to vary by -5 to 20% as compared to current normal climate (1951 to 1980), resulting in the increase of possible duration of crop growth(days above 15~circC in daily mean temperature) by 30 to 50 days and of effective accumulated temperature(EAT=∑Ti, Ti~geq 10~circC ) by 1200 to 1500~circC . day which roughly corresponds to the shift of its isopleth northward by 300 to 400 km and by 600 to 700 m in altitude. The hydrological condition evaluated by radiative dryness index (RDI =Rn/ ~ell P) is presumed to change slightly. The net primary productivity under the 2~times CO2 climate was estimated to decrease by 3 to 4% when calculated without considering the photosynthesis stimulation due to CO2 enrichment. Empirical crop-weather model was constructed for national rice yield prediction. The rice yields predicted by this model under 2 ~times CO2 climatic scenario at the technological level of 1987 were lower by 34-43% than those under current normal climate. The parameters of MACROS, a dynamic simulation model from IRRI, were modified to simulate the growth and development of Korean rice cultivars under current and doubled CO2 climatic condition. When simulated starting seedling emergence of May 10, the rice yield of Hwaseongbyeo(medium maturity) under 2 ~times CO2 climate in Suwon showed 37% reduction compared to that under current normal climate. The yield reduction was ascribable mainly to the shortening of vegetative and ripening period due to accelerated development by higher temperature. Any simulated yields when shifted emergence date from April 10 to July 10 with Hwaseongbyeo (medium maturity) and Palgeum (late maturity) under 2 ~times CO2 climate did not exceed the yield of Hwaseongbyeo simulated at seedling emergence on May 10 under current climate. The imaginary variety, having the same characteristics as those of Hwaseongbyeo except growth duration of 100 days from seedling emergence to heading, showed 4% increase in yield when simulated at seedling emergence on May 25 producing the highest yield. The simulation revealed that grain yields of rice increase to a greater