본 연구는 현재의 표고버섯 시장 및 수급상황과 신선 표고버섯 생산을 위해 사용되는 접종배지의 영향력을 반영하기 위한 목적으로 수행하였다. 이를 위해, 분석에 사용한 자료의 시간적 범위는 2000년부터 2022년까지의 연도별 시계열자료이다. 분석방법은 전대수를 적용한 선형회귀모형을 적용하였다. 분석 결과, 모형은 통계적으로 유의한 결과를 얻을 수 있었다. 특히, 수요의 가격 탄성치는 –1.10%로 나타나 신선 표고버섯 가격이 1% 증가할 때, 수요량은 1.10% 감소하였다. 공급의 가격 탄력성은 비탄력적인 것으로 나타났으며 신선 표고버섯 가격이 1% 증가할 때 공급량은 0.33% 증가시키는 것으로 분석되었다. 본 연구의 차별성은 톱밥접종배지가 공급량에 미치는 영향과 최근의 소비시장의 상황을 반영한 모형을 추정했다는 것이다. 본 연구의 결과는 향후 신선 표고버섯의 원산지 변경에 따른 경제적 효과분석과 톱밥접종배지 생산자에 대한 지원 정책 개발을 위한 정책실험에 활용할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

The purpose of this study is to construct an outlook model that is consistent with the “Fisheries Outlook” monthly published by the Fisheries Outlook Center of the Korea Maritime Institute(KMI). In particular, it was designed as a partial equilibrium model limited to abalone items, but a model was constructed with a dynamic ecological equation model(DEEM) system taking into account biological breeding and shipping time. The results of this study are significant in that they can be used as basic data for model development of various items in the future. In this study, due to the limitation of monthly data, the market equilibrium price was calculated by using the recursive model construction method to be calculated directly as an inverse demand. A model was built in the form of a structural equation model that can explain economic causality rather than a conventional time series analysis model. The research results and implications are as follows. As a result of the estimation of the amount of young seashells planting, it was estimated that the coefficient of the amount of young seashells planting from the previous year was estimated to be 0.82 so that there was no significant difference in the amount of young seashells planting this year and last year. It is also meant to be nurtured for a long time after aquaculture license and limited aquaculture area(edge style) and implantation. The economic factor, the coefficient of price from last year was estimated at 0.47. In the case of breeding quantity, it was estimated that the longer the breeding period, the larger the coefficient of breeding quantity in the previous period. It was analyzed that the impact of shipments on the breeding volume increased. In the case of shipments, the coefficient of production price was estimated unelastically. As the period of rearing increased, the estimation coefficient decreased. Such result indicates that the expected price, which is an economic factor variable and that had less influence on the intention to shipments. In addition, the elasticity of the breeding quantity was estimated more unelastically as the breeding period increased. This is also correlated with the relative coefficient size of the expected price. The abalone supply and demand forecast model developed in this study is significant in that it reduces the prediction error than the existing model using the ecological equation modeling system and the economic causal model. However, there are limitations in establishing a system of simultaneous equations that can be linked to production and consumption between industries and items. This is left as a future research project.

The purpose of this study was to analyze the production and marketing control effects of aqua-cultured flounder required for stable income growth of aqua-cultured household. We analyzed the supply and demand structure of cultured flounder using the partial equilibrium model approach. And we estimated the optimal yield of cultured flounder and analyzed the effect of marketing control through constructed model. The main results of this study are summarized as follows. First, the fitness and predictive power of the estimated model showed that the RMSPE and MAPE values were less than 5% and Theil’s inequality coefficient was very close to 0 rather than 1. It was evaluated that the prediction ability of the aqua-cultured flounder supply and demand model by dynamic simulation was excellent. Second, dynamic simulation based on policy simulation was conducted to analyze the price increase effect of production and shipment control of cultured flounder. As a result, if the annual production volume is reduced by 1%, 5%, and 10% among 32,852〜37,520 tons, it is analyzed that the price increase effect is from 1.2% to 12.5%. Finally, this study suggests that the production and marketing control can increase the price of aqua-cultured flounder in the market. In this paper, we propose a policy implementation of the total supply system instead of conclusions.

This study is designed to forecast the characteristics in food consumption patterns under per capita GNP growth. Ordinary least square(OLS)method was employed as analyzing technique. Equation was Y=a0+a1X, in which X was per capita GNP and Y were Engel coefficient, food supply, energy supply, nutrient intake and ratio of self-supply of food. The result obtained indicates that the intake of nutrient such as protein and fat will be increased, and wheat, corn and legume are expected to be imported wholly due to lower ratio of self-supply, and rice will be over-supplied continually. Therefore, the relevant policy of government must be established in the field of supply and demand of food, and the research of sound national health should be done.

최근 들어 지구온난화와 기상조건의 변화로 기후의 변동폭이 증가하면서 극심한 가물이 자주 발생하고 있다. 또한 기 개발된 용수원의 수질 오염, 물 분배에 관한 상류지역의 반대 및 지방자치단체간의 수리권 문제 등도 상류지역으로부터의 맑은 수자원 확보를 필요하게 만드는 요인이다. 따라서 이에 대한 용수공급 관리 방안의 필요성에 대한 인식이 부각되고 있으며, 수도권의 용수수요 변화에 대한 북한강 유역 댐의 용수공급 능력에 대한 적절한 검토가 필요한 실정이다.