본 연구에서는 대류권부터 중층대기까지 전체 대기의 기체상 화학과정을 전지구 규모에서 수치 모의하도록 고 안된 두 가지 대기화학과정(Strattrop와 CRI) 각각을 영국 지구시스템모형(UKESM)에 연동시켜 CMIP6 과거기후 모의 를 수행하였다. 두 대기과학과정에 따른 모의 결과를 재분석자료와 비교하여 기체상 대기화학과정에 따른 전지구시스템 모형의 모의 특성의 변화를 살펴보았다. 단순화된 화학과정인 Strattrop를 기본 장착한 UKESM-Strattrop과 오존 화학과 정을 강화한 CRI 대기화학과정을 연동시킨 UKESM-CRI의 수치 모의는 1981-2010년 약 30년 기간 CMIP6 과거기후 모의이며, 모형의 가동은 CentOS-8 기반 리눅스 클러스터에서 수행되었다. 이 두 모의 실험 결과의 분석은 마지막 10년(2001-2010) 결과만을 이용하였다. 두 모델이 모의한 대류권 지상 기온과 강수량은 전지구 공간 분포와 월별 시계열 의 변동에서 기존에 보고된 결과와 유사하게 나타났고, 대기화학과정에 의한 특징적인 변화는 크게 두드러지지 않았다. 하지만 모델 모의 전지구 평균 기온의 선형 증가율의 경우, UKESM-Strattrop은 ERA5 재분석자료와 비슷한 선형 시간 변화 경향을 보였으나 UKESM-CRI는 더 크게 증가하도록 모의하였다. 에어로졸 광학 두께(AOD)의 공간 분포는 두 모델 모두 사막 지역을 제외하고 MERRA-2 재분석자료와 유사했다. 기체상 화학과정이 강화된 UKESM-CRI는 예상했 던 바와 같이 UKESM-Strattrop 보다 오존전량에서 MSR 재분석자료와 더 유사한 결과를 보였으며, 성층권 오존분포에 서는 MERRA-2 재분석자료에 더 가까운 결과를 보였다. 특히, 적도 성층권에서 나타나는 준격년진동(QBO) 현상과 QBO와 연관된 적도 성층권 오존 농도의 증가와 감소 현상의 모의는 UKESM-CRI가 UKESM-Strattrop 보다 더욱 잘 일치하였다. 이를 통해 보다 정교한 전지구규모 대기화학과정의 도입은 대기 조성 물질의 수치 모의 성능을 향상시키며, 더 나아가 중층대기 Brewer-Dobson 순환(BDC)의 모의에 도움이 됨을 확인할 수 있다.

Two man-made carbon emissions, fossil fuel emissions and land use emissions, have been perturbing naturally occurring global carbon cycle. These emitted carbons will eventually be deposited into the atmosphere, the terrestrial biosphere, the soil, and the ocean. In this study, Simple Global Carbon Model (SGCM) was used to simulate global carbon cycle and to estimate global carbon budget. For the model input, fossil fuel emissions and land use emissions were taken from the literature. Unlike fossil fuel use, land use emissions were highly uncertain. Therefore land use emission inputs were adjusted within an uncertainty range suggested in the literature. Simulated atmospheric CO2 concentrations were well fitted to observations with a standard error of 0.06 ppm. Moreover, simulated carbon budgets in the ocean and terrestrial biosphere were shown to be reasonable compared to the literature values, which have considerable uncertainties. Simulation results show that with increasing fossil fuel emissions, the ratios of carbon partitioning to the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere have increased from 42% and 24% in the year 1958 to 50% and 30% in the year 2016 respectively, while that to the ocean has decreased from 34% in the year 1958 to 20% in the year 2016. This finding indicates that if the current emission trend continues, the atmospheric carbon partitioning ratio might be continuously increasing and thereby the atmospheric CO2 concentrations might be increasing much faster. Among the total emissions of 399 gigatons of carbon (GtC) from fossil fuel use and land use during the simulation period (between 1960 and 2016), 189 GtC were reallocated to the atmosphere (47%), 107 GtC to the terrestrial biosphere (27%), and 103GtC to the ocean (26%). The net terrestrial biospheric carbon accumulation (terrestrial biospheric allocations minus land use emissions) showed positive 46 GtC. In other words, the terrestrial biosphere has been accumulating carbon, although land use emission has been depleting carbon in the terrestrial biosphere.

The initial and boundary conditions are important factors in regional chemical transport modeling systems. The method of generating the chemical boundary conditions for regional air quality models tends to be different from the dynamically varying boundary conditions in global chemical transport models. In this study, the impact of real time Copernicus atmosphere monitoring service (CAMS) re-analysis data from the modeling atmospheric composition and climate project interim implementation (MACC) on the regional air quality in the Korean Peninsula was carried out using the community multi-scale air quality modeling system (CMAQ). A comparison between conventional global data and CAMS for numerical assessments was also conducted. Although the horizontal resolution of the CAMS re-analysis data is not higher than the conventionally provided data, the simulated particulate matter (PM) concentrations with boundary conditions for CAMS re-analysis is more reasonable than any other data, and the estimation accuracy over the entire Korean peninsula, including the Seoul and Daegu metropolitan areas, was improved. Although an inland area such as the Daegu metropolitan area often has large uncertainty in PM prediction, the level of improvement in the prediction for the Daegu metropolitan area is higher than in the coastal area of the western part of the Korean peninsula.

Increasing carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use and land-use change has been perturbing the balanced global carbon cycle and changing the carbon distribution among the atmosphere, the terrestrial biosphere, the soil, and the ocean. SGCM(Simple Global Carbon Model) was used to simulate global carbon cycle for the IPCC emissions scenarios, which was six future carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use and land-use change set by IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Atmospheric CO2 concentrations for four scenarios were simulated to continuously increase to 600～1050ppm by the year 2100, while those for the other two scenarios to stabilize at 400～600ppm. The characteristics of these two CO2-stabilized scenarios are to suppress emissions below 12～13 Gt C/yr by the year 2050 and then to decrease emissions up to 5 Gt C/yr by the year 2100, which is lower than the current emissions of 6.3±0.4 Gt C/yr. The amount of carbon in the atmosphere was simulated to continuously increase for four scenarios, while to increase by the year 2050～2070 and then decrease by the year 2100 for the other two scenarios which were CO2-stabilized scenarios. Even though the six emission scenarios showed different simulation results, overall patterns were such similar that the amount of carbon was in the terrestrial biosphere to decrease first several decades and then increase, while in the soil and the ocean to continuously increase. The ratio of carbon partitioning to the atmosphere for the accumulated total emissions was higher for the emission scenario having higher atmospheric CO2, however that was decreasing as time elapsed. The terrestrial biosphere and the soil showed reverse pattern to the atmosphere.

장래 의 증가에 따른 지구 기온의 상승은 그 정도의 차이는 있으나 불가피한 것으로 예측되고 있으며, 강수량의 경우는 대기대순환모형(General Circulation Model, GeM)의 종류에 따라 감소에서 증가까지 다양한 결과를 보이고 있다. 특히, 강수량의 변화는 평균적인 개념의 연평균, 계절평균이나 월 평균도 중요하지만 국가적인 재해와 관련된 홍수나 가뭄의 발생도 중요한 관심사항이 된다. 홍수나 가뭄의 발생변화를 적절히 예측하기 위해서는 기술적

A global carbon cycle model (GCCM), that incorporates interaction among the terrestrial biosphere, ocean, and atmosphere, was developed to study the carbon cycling and global carbon budget, especially due to anthropogenic CO2 emission. The model that is based on C, ^13C and ^14C mass balance, was calibrated with the observed CO2 concentration, δ^13C and Δ^14C in the atmosphere, Δ^14C in the soil, and Δ^14C in the ocean. Also, GCCM was constrained by the literature values of oceanic carbon uptake and CO2 emissions from deforestation. Inputs (forcing functions in the model) were the C, ^13C and ^14C as CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use, and ^14C infection into the stratosphere by bomb-tests. The simulated annual carbon budget of 1980s due to anthropogenic CO2 shows that the global sources were 5.43 Gt-C/yr from fossil fuel use and 0.91 Gt-C/yr from deforestation, and the sinks were 3.29 Gt-C/yr in the atmosphere, 0.90 Gt-C/yr in the terrestrial biosphere and 2.15 Gt-C/yr in the ocean. The terrestrial biosphere is currently at zero net exchange with the atmosphere, but carbon is lost via organic carbon runoff to the ocean. The model could be utilized for a variety of studies in CO_2 policy and management, climate modeling, CO2 impacts, and crop models.