Climate change is a major global problem. Oysters, one of the most representative farmed fish in Korea, are attracting attention as candidates for blue carbon, an alternative to carbon neutrality. This study is analyzed by the SSP scenarios to determine the impact of oyster aquaculture production according to climate change. Based on the analysis, future productions of oysters are predicted by the SSP scenario. Significant differences by the SSP scenario are confirmed through predictive power tests among scenarios. Regression analysis was conducted from January 2001 to December 2014. As a result of the analysis, water temperature, water temperature quadratic term, salinity, salinity quadratic term, and month × water temperature cross term were estimated as significant variables. Oyster production which is predicted by the SSP scenario based on the significant variables from 2015 to 2022 was compared with actual production. The model with the highest predictive power was selected by RMSE and MAPE criteria. The predictive power was compared with the MDM test to determine which model was superior. As a result, based on RMSE and MAPE, the SSP1-2.6 scenario was selected as the best model and the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0 scenarios all showed the same predictive power based on the MDM test. In conculusion, this study predicted oyster aquaculture production by 2030, not the distant future, due to the short duration of the analytical model. This study was found that oyster aquaculture production increased in all scenarios and there was no significant difference in predictive power by the SSP scenario.

Purpose: 본 연구의 목적은 4주기간동안 횡격막 호흡을 적용한 기구 필라테스 운동이 20대 성인의 유연성, 복부 근 두께, 근육량, 체지방, 호흡에 미치는 영향에 대해 알아보고자 하는 것이다. Methods: 근골격계 질환이 없는 대상자 35명을 대상으로 수행하였으며, 횡격막 호흡을 하는 그룹과 횡격막 호흡을 하지 않는 그룹으로 나누었으며, 두 그룹 모두 필라테스를 수행하였다. 실험에 사용한 기기로는 Ultrasonography(US), Pulmonary function tests(FEV1 / FVC), Bioeletic Impedance Analysis, Sit and reach test를 사용하였다. 정규성 검증을 실시한 후, 반복측정분산분석 (repeated measures of ANOVA)를 사용하여 운동 전, 호흡을 적용한 운동, 호흡 비적용 운동을 비교하였다. 사후 분석을 위해 Fisher’s LSD를 실시하였다. Results: 필라테스 운동은 복근의 두께와 유연성에 긍정적인 영향을 미쳤습니다. SaR test는 운동 전과 호흡을 적용한 운동과 호흡을 적용하지 않은 운동 사이에 유의한 유의성을 보였다(P <0.05). 근육두께 측정 TRA, EO, IO 모두 운동 전보다 호흡 적용 운동과 비호흡 운동에서 유의한 차이가 있었고(P <0.05), TRA와 IO에서는 추가 시간 사이에 유의한 차이가 없었다. 호흡하지 않는 운동(P >0.05). 그러나 EO에서는 호흡운동을 추가한 시간과 호흡운동을 하지 않은 시간 사이에 유의한 차이가 있었다( P <0.05). Conlusion: 결론적으로, 횡격막 호흡을 이용한 필라테스 운동과 횡격막 호흡이 없는 필라테스 운동은 복근의 두께와 유연성에 긍정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 횡격막 호흡과 비횡격막 호흡 사이에는 큰 차이가 없었다.

The purpose of this study is to compare short-term price predictive power among ARMA ARMAX and VAR forecasting models based on the MDM test using monthly consumer price data of frozen mackerel. This study also aims to help policymakers and economic actors make reasonable choices in the market on monthly consumer price of frozen mackerel. To analyze this study, the frozen wholesale prices and new consumer prices were used as variables while the price time series data were used from December 2013 to July 2021. Through the unit root test, it was confirmed that the time series variables employed in the models were stable while the level variables were used for analysis. As a result of conducting information standards and Granger causality tests, it was found that the wholesale prices and fresh consumer prices from the previous month have affected the frozen consumer prices. Then, the model with the highest predictive power was selected by RMSE, RMSPE, MAE, MAPE, and Theil’s inequality coefficient criteria where the predictive power was compared by the MDM test in order to examine which model is superior. As a result of the analysis, ARMAX(1,1) with the frozen wholesale, ARMAX(1,1) with the fresh consumer model and VAR model were selected. Through the five criteria and MDM tests, the VAR model was selected as the superior model in predicting the monthly consumer price of frozen mackerel.